Notes on the Atrocities
Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...

Monday, June 09, 2003  

Blogroll update

A little housecleaning on the blogroll. I've removed a couple blogs and added three. Off the list are Electrolite and Daily Howler, two that have been on the roll since I started the site. Both are great blogs and the main reason I pulled them is because I wanted to keep the roll manageable. Reading through them, I decided to cut the two I read the least. The blogroll is, after all, all about individual preference.

New to the blogroll are two famous bloggers who I've resisted listing for months, and one I bet you've never heard of. I've had Body and Soul and Daily Kos bookmarked for a long time, and read them pretty much daily, so it's time to add them. Yup, they're big, they're famous, and they don't need my link. But they deserve it.

My big find, and evidence of why you need to read comments threads, is A Berkeley Economist Against Empire. Currently a mere Slimy Mollusc ranked 1609 in the ecosystem but bound, I imagine, for a speedy evolution. Check out one of his current posts:

For the back-of-the-envelope economic analysis: let's say this discourages 5 million people from visiting the country each year. Let's say each of them would have spent $2000 on each visit. This means the direct decrease in GDP is $10 billion. A guess for the multiplier for foreigner dollars spent in the U.S. is 2, which would mean that these measures will cost the U.S. $20 billion in lost output.

And that's just the simple economic costs. The costs of increasing overtime would be a tiny fraction of that. The figures in the article suggest that 15 million people a year will have to be interviewed, up from around 7 million. That's 8 million people new people being interviewed. Let's say each interview lasts an hour. That gives us 8 million man-hours of time required. Let's say State Dept. overseas overtime costs $100/hr. That means paying for the overtime would cost $800 million. Let's be even more conservative and round this up to $1 billion. So for want of $1 billion, GDP will drop $20 billion.

How many jobs lost does this translate to? If 2/3 of output goes to wages (the rest is returns to capital), this is $13 billion in lost wages. If average salaries are around $30,000, this translates into 400,000 jobs lost!

The funny thing is, this is exactly the number of jobs that Bush claims his tax cut will create in the first year, at a cost of $200 billion, which is $500,000 a job.

Go give him some eye time.

posted by Jeff | 4:35 PM |
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