Notes on the Atrocities
Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...


Friday, October 31, 2003  

For those of you who have been dying to see the Memo, you need look no further. "Notes on the Atrocities," your Deep Throat to FOX News, brings you a copy of the Memo*.

__________________________________________
The MEMO
FOX News
October 30th, 2003

Turns out Clinton was right about something after all: it is the economy, stupid. And today more than ever. Late yesterday evening, we received the Q3 numbers for the quarter: 7.2% growth. Sound high? It is--the strongest growth since 1984, when the Gipper was at the helm. Clearly, a stunning triumph of the President's tax relief measures. You may be feeling overly chipper about this news today--and why not? It's great news, so let the people see how you feel.

The story couldn't be clearer: the Dow's up, house sales up, productivity strong, durable goods, consumer confidence, orders of manufactured goods--all up, up, UP! Still, the story can get bogged down in details. Stories that are bogged down in details aren't peppy--show too many details and people are reaching for the clicker. So in reporting the story, a couple of key points.

One way to help communicate the story is to stick with clear, consistent language. The package of economic stimulus the President proposed included a lot more than tax cuts--so don't fall into the trap of using that phrase. Far better is "tax relief." Officially, the President has been calling his economic plan the "Jobs and Growth Package." We're really talking about growth today, folks, so let's just stick with "tax relief." Sure, it's more accurate to use the President's language, but the word "jobs" introduces a new topic that can only be addressed through details. It's messy and it's misleading and it's unfair to the President.

Another issue best left aside is the deficits. Again, those are unnecessary details. Flip that lens and look at stimulus: with growth like this, it's difficult to say what the deficits--if indeed any remain--might be. Groping in the dark to figure out what the deficits are isn't sound journalism: as with global warming, we just don't know.

Finally, just a thought. When one thinks about all the months of nay-saying we've had to endure about the economy, all the dour Sallies, it makes you want to laugh. It goes to show that the major media has been in major spin mode. Fortunately, we've managed to keep our eyes on the ball, and knew we'd find vindication after all was said and done. As you report some of the other stories of the day--the "Mission Accomplished" flap, the situation in Iraq--remember that. The liberal media will have their say, and they'll be the same dour Sallies they always are. But here at Fox, it's our commitment to Fair and Balanced journalism that keeps us from sliding into that false, negative space. That ugly echo chamber. Just something to think about.

All right folks, let's go show 'em what good journalism really is!
__________________________________________

*As context, I'd like you to keep in mind what day it is. You've been warned.

posted by Jeff | 12:20 PM |
 

Via Lying Media Bastards, the Center for Public Integrity has prepared a report about war contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan. It's incredibly rich with information, most of which will align with your intuition. Some of it--especially the particulars--is surprising.

One of the more interesting Iraq contracts the Center uncovered involves a tiny firm called Sullivan Haave Associates. Sullivan Haave is actually a one-man shop run by a government consultant named Terry Sullivan. Sullivan says his firm was hired as a subcontractor by Science Applications International Corp., one of the most successful and best politically connected government contractors doing work in Iraq....

Sullivan has a much more intimate relationship with the Pentagon than his competitors, however. He happens to be married to Carol Haave, who, since November 2001, has been deputy assistant secretary of defense for security and information operations. And yes, Haave is the same person who appears in the name Sullivan Haave Associates.

Haave seemed surprised when contacted by the Center for Public Integrity at her Pentagon office about the contract.

She said she was no longer associated with the company in any way. She then said she had no knowledge of any work the company might be doing in Iraq.


There's more, including a list of contractors by contribution total which you can compare to the list of contractors by total earnings. (Surprisingly, on visual inspection, there appears to be some correlation! But remember, it's not kickback money, it's free speech.) Also, there's a history of how much government has shifted money to the private sector.

Under cost-reimbursement contracts—which one former Washington government lawyer jokingly referred to as "defraud me please" contracts—companies decide how much a service will cost to perform. These contracts are also known as "cost-plus" contracts because the contractor's profit comes from fees paid by the government beyond the cost of the service, which are calculated using one of several fee arrangements. One common arrangement is award fees, in which the contractor receives a base fee plus an additional fee based on performance. The additional fee is often calculated as a percentage—typically less than 10 percent, according to Schooner—of the service's cost. Critics say this structure gives contractors an incentive to bill the government at a premium so that they will make a correspondingly fat fee.


Good, good stuff.

posted by Jeff | 11:02 AM |
 

With positive economic numbers starting to appear, the Democratic Party finds itself at a crossroads. The 7.2% growth rate will be a number the White House can tout for weeks. Even more important will be the moment the Dow passes 10,000 and the NASDAQ 2,000--psychological mileposts that will signal the reverse of the burst bubble (or at least be hailed that way). Whether the economy is actually stronger or not--and there's a lot of evidence it's not (Krugman, Newman, Sawicky)--these numbers will change the political discourse. It's a very dangerous time, because what the Dems do next will determine their relevance in the coming year and set the stage for whatever come back--or failure to comeback--they'll mount in coming years.

Thanks to the work of Judis and Teixeira, we know that the Democratic base has shifted from the blue collar (particularly rural voters) to educated professionals in "ideopolises"--tech and education centers like Boston, Madison, and San Francisco. Republicans, seizing on this change, have carefully identified Democrats as "elites," pointing to the tattooed, vegan, multicultural, irreligious city dwellers as evidence of a party that doesn't fit with traditional American values. Democrats still do well among unionized urban blue collar workers, but they've failed to flip the rural, religious, and red-meat poor.

Those differences were obscured in the Bush recession. Urban professionals were losing their jobs, just like wage-earners in blue collar jobs. Both were offended by the tax cuts that benefited the only group in America who didn't need the money--corporations and the rich. But if the economic numbers pick up, the Democrats will be confronted with a fracturing constituency.

At least, this is how I read it. The urban professionals--those amenable to the DLC "new Democrat" argument--will be most profoundly affected by the economic change. They'll benefit most from an improved economy. But then there's that 50% of voters who don't vote. A lot of them are the poor and disenfranchised who were for the first time starting to hear politicians speak to their needs. These are the folks in Boise, Idaho and Portsmouth, New Hampshire and Tucson, Arizona who work low-paying jobs (maybe two or three) who are trying to keep food on the table and a roof over their head. They have no access to the halls of power, no time or money to devote to politics, and essentially no voice in the political process. (Barbara Ehrenreich's Nickel and Dimed is a powerful report on this vast group of Americans.)

But they're the hope and future of the Democratic Party.

If this is the moment when Democrats turn away from their populist message, turn away from talking about class, and turn back toward the pro-business, pro-trade platform of the middle 90s, they'll lose every one of those workers. And losing those workers is tantamount to death. In the absence of any message that suggests there might be change for them, they'll slide back into political apathy or worse--they'll be susceptible to the most cynical arguments from Republicans about God, guns, and country.

The Democrats have hard work in front of them. Capturing those voters means going door-to-door to ask for votes. It means listening to needs and crafting solutions that may not appeal to those who control the coffers. It's old-time organization; getting people engaged, registered, and out to vote. So far, the Democrats have done a bang-up job creating those networks and putting people on the streets. The major influence behind that effort has been the flagging economy. But as these positive numbers come out, the Dems need to keep their eye on the ball: for the Wal-Mart worker making $7.75, the Dow's performance means squat. Their economy is going to take a lot more work.

posted by Jeff | 8:55 AM |


Thursday, October 30, 2003  

Didn't take long for the President to credit the positive economic numbers to his tax cut: Tax Relief Helps Economic Growth. Funny, after dodging responsibility for putting up that "Mission Accomplished" banner, he's Johnny on the spot when there's credit to be taken.


posted by Jeff | 4:10 PM |
 

Another thought on that "Mission Accomplished" business. It's a great example of the tone this President sets with regard to communicating the truth to Americans. Although the mythology of this President is that he's a "plainspoken" man, a no-frills, unadorned truth-teller, nothing could be further from the truth. The administration dwells in a neverland of falsity, and the plainspoken President is a careful component of the message.

Let's take a look at the "Mission Accomplished" episode. On the one hand, there were the words of the President: "Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed." Everything about the affair bespoke victory. Even the webpage has a hagiographic, exaultant feel to it. Go look, and see if you don't agree (there's George, in flyboy fetish wear, there's one of our sleek, lethal jets: ah, the cleanness of victory). Bush continues, in language fit for my Friday Satire piece:

The character of our military through history -- the daring of Normandy, the fierce courage of Iwo Jima, the decency and idealism that turned enemies into allies -- is fully present in this generation. When Iraqi civilians looked into the faces of our servicemen and women, they saw strength and kindness and goodwill. When I look at the members of the United States military, I see the best of our country, and I'm honored to be your Commander-in-Chief....

Those we lost were last seen on duty. Their final act on this Earth was to fight a great evil and bring liberty to others. All of you -- all in this generation of our military -- have taken up the highest calling of history. You're defending your country, and protecting the innocent from harm. And wherever you go, you carry a message of hope -- a message that is ancient and ever new. In the words of the prophet Isaiah, "To the captives, 'come out,' -- and to those in darkness, 'be free.'"


But the prophet Isaiah, nor Normandy nor Iwo Jima, were evoked in the President's press conference on Tuesday. Rather, a disarming joke ("it was attributed some how to some ingenious advance man from my staff -- they weren't that ingenious, by the way"), then a statement that may not have been lie, but neither was it the truth: "But my statement was a clear statement, basically recognizing that this phase of the war for Iraq was over and there was a lot of dangerous work."

Well, no. The speech was basically one of the most overripe displays of vainglory ever uttered by a president. As to recognizing the dangerous work ahead, there was but a single qualifier in the whole thing: "We have difficult work to do in Iraq. We're bringing order to parts of that country that remain dangerous."

This is exactly the pattern of the President's communication strategy since he arrived in Washington. Dwell in the nebulous by giving impressions. Use backdrops with slogans, dress the part, speak in a broken, befuddled (and seemingly authentic) voice, use the language of populism, and always say things in vague, nonspecific terms. If a thing is implied, it can be disavowed. If a message is sent through production values, not declarative sentences, it can be denied. If an impression can be created in the absence of the truth to which you might be accountable, create the impression. After all, as this episode demonstrates, it's easier to deny that apologize.

posted by Jeff | 8:47 AM |


Wednesday, October 29, 2003  

Everyone seems to know, instinctively, that the President has a troubled relationship with the truth. Trouble is, no one has caught him in a lie. Could it be that it will be the little things that undo him? That audible he called yesterday in which he claimed his staff had not put up the "Mission Accomplished" sign might be the first verifiable lie. First, Bush's words:

The "Mission Accomplished" sign, of course, was put up by the members of the USS Abraham Lincoln saying that their mission was accomplished. I know it was attributed somehow to some ingenious advance man from staff. They weren't that ingenious, by the way.


Already the White House is dissembling:

White House spokesman Scott McClellan told CNN that in preparing for the speech, Navy officials on the carrier told Bush aides they wanted a "Mission Accomplished" banner, and the White House agreed to create it.

"We took care of the production of it," McClellan said. "We have people to do those things. But the Navy actually put it up."


Well, maybe. On the other hand, as Jess Berney points out, very little was left up to the Navy. Digging around in the Times archives, he found this:

Media strategists noted afterward that Mr. Sforza and his aides had choreographed every aspect of the event, even down to the members of the Lincoln crew arrayed in coordinated shirt colors over Mr. Bush's right shoulder and the "Mission Accomplished" banner placed to perfectly capture the president and the celebratory two words in a single shot. The speech was specifically timed for what image makers call "magic hour light," which cast a golden glow on Mr. Bush.


I'm not really sure if this should be a big deal--it's a petty lie about the pettiest of Presidential PR promotions. On the other hand, the man lied about the rationale for going to war. That last one isn't likely to be proven (it's probably unprovable), but the "Mission Accomplished" lie is much clearer. I wouldn't be surprised to see evidence in the next couple days that details how the White House planned and paid for the banner. Then we'll see what happens. Maybe it's not the big lies that get you.

posted by Jeff | 11:28 AM |
 

To visitors from Metafilter, Mark Kleiman, and J. Bradford DeLong, a clarification: the Boykin piece is satire. It's a regular bit of my schtick, so don't take it too seriously. I shudder to think that it might create an international incident. Don't alert Vajpayee.

Looking to kill more time (More Friday Satire)?
FOX NEWS IN LAWSUIT FRENZY OVER "FAIR AND BALANCED"
MICHAEL SAVAGE ADMITS "IT WAS ALL A JOKE"
CAPTURED PRISONER ADMITS: I AM OSAMA BIN LADEN
POPE TO PEN SEX-ADVICE COLUMN
IRAQ ELECTS SADDAM HUSSEIN PRESIDENT

posted by Jeff | 8:37 AM |
 

Huge news for the Dean campaign: Jesse Jackson Jr. announced yesterday he was behind the good doctor. This is huge news because the one rap Dean hasn't been able to shake is that his support is as white as the Vermont snows. It was such a boost that the Reverend responded by calling him a racist. Sharpton has always pinned his hopes on the black vote, and knows this is a critical blow.

I've always been appalled when people played the race card on Dean--infering from his policies, not his words, that he was implicitly racist. Vermont's not a particularly Jewish state, either, but does that make him an anti-semite (don't answer that, Joe)? Here's what Sharpton charged:

"Howard Dean's opposition to affirmative action, his current support for the death penalty and historic support of the NRA's agenda amounts to an anti-black agenda that will not sell in communities of color in this country."


Dean wants to be a national candidate and to rise above the usual game of divisive politics. Sharpton's antics aside, this is a huge step toward that end. If he can build support among black voters, he might even be able to make gains in South Carolina. A second or third place showing after wins in New Hampshire and Iowa would be regarded as a win for Dean. Finishing above candidates who must win South Carolina to gain traction--Joe, Edwards, Clark--would effectively knock them out of the campaign.

(The one danger with this is that other black leaders will join Sharpton and come out against Dean, turning his candidacy into a referendum on race. That would be devastating.)

posted by Jeff | 8:06 AM |


Tuesday, October 28, 2003  

And then there's this:

MAdGE (Mothers Against Genetic Engineering in Food and the Environment) today launched a highly controversial billboard campaign in Auckland and Wellington to provoke public debate about the social and cultural ethics of genetic engineering in New Zealand.

The billboards depict a naked, genetically engineered woman with four breasts being milked by a milking machine, and GE branded on her rump.


No, you won't find the photo on this website--I like to think it's a classy outfit. Not, however, so classy I won't point you here, were you can see it.

posted by Jeff | 5:06 PM |
 

Blair. You don't hear that name come out of the administration much anymore, do you?

posted by Jeff | 5:01 PM |
 

As an addendum to my jobs rumination from this morning, I notice a couple other folks have related information. From Max: "The last time income tax revenues were this low was the year before the noted Polish economist Bill Mazeroski beat the Yankees." Add that to Bush's accomplishment of being the first President since Hoover to see a net loss in jobs, and he's got a tidy resume going.

Calpundit also points to a report showing that CEO salary has spiked in comparison to company profits. "Overall, a CEO who generates $10 million in net profits today is paid about 7x what a CEO who generated exactly the same amount was paid in 1980." He adds, wryly: "Now: tell me again why those unionized grocery clerks are just a bunch of greedy bastards for thinking that their pay and benefits ought to rise too? Just curious." I'm curious about that myself...

Economists for Dean also have a slate of indictments on the Prez's policies (and yet Krugman takes all the heat). His policies have worsened the states' financial crises, his policies are dishonest, and his tax cuts really are bad. (All right, you don't have to be an economist for Dean to get that last one.)

posted by Jeff | 4:47 PM |
 

The Press Conference

And now for the daily bizarro world update. Today, as you all know, the Prez deigned to speak to the rabble in the press. Some foolish souls thought he might address the recent carnage in Iraq. But it was clear from his opening statement that he was sticking to the party line: things are fantastic, thanks for asking.

After decades of oppression and brutality in Iraq and Afghanistan, reconstruction is difficult, and freedom still has its enemies in both of those countries. These terrorists are targeting the very success and freedom we're providing to the Iraqi people. Their desperate attacks on innocent civilians will not intimidate us, or the brave Iraqis and Afghans who are joining in their own defense and who are moving toward self-government.

Coalition forces aided by Afghan and Iraqi police and military are striking the enemy with force and precision. Our coalition is growing in members and growing in strength. Our purpose is clear and certain: Iraq and Afghanistan will be stable, independent nations and their people will live in freedom.


As to the terror strikes in Iraq, the President had very clear talking points, and he repeated them whenever someone broached the subject. Essentially, he was replaying the "terrorists bad, America good" card, trying to re-assert his pre-war cowboy clarity:

Basically, what they're trying to do is cause people to run. They want to kill and create chaos. That's the nature of a terrorist, that's what terrorists do. They commit suicide acts against innocent people and then expect people to say, well, gosh, we better -- better not try to fight you anymore.


The rabble, however, were a bit testy. Here are a couple of amusing exchanges.

Q Thank you, Mr. President. You recently put Condoleezza Rice, your National Security Advisor, in charge of the management of the administration's Iraq policy. What has effectively changed since she's been in charge? And the second question, can you promise a year from now that you will have reduced the number of troops in Iraq?

THE PRESIDENT: The second question is a trick question, so I won't answer it.

----

Q Thank you, sir. Mr. President, your policies on the Middle East seem, so far, to have produced pretty meager results as the violence between Israelis and Palestinians --

THE PRESIDENT: Major or meager?

Q Meager.

THE PRESIDENT: Oh, okay.

Q Meager.

THE PRESIDENT: Meager.



Other notes
Jargon introduced: "suiciders" - suicide bombers. "Actionable intelligence" - intelligence gathered in the field upon which the military can immediately act (as opposed to the "darn good" intelligence that wasn't, and got us into this mess in the first place).

Odd repetition: "gathering threat/danger" - he used it three times, apparently unaware of the irony that the gathering threat in Iraq has been caused by his own poor policy, not the dictator he deposed when first uttering that phrase.

Best quote of the night: "Saddam Hussein is a man who hid programs and weapons for years. He's a master at hiding things. And so David Kay will continue his search. But one of the things that he first found was that there is clear violation of the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441. Material breach, they call it in the diplomatic circles. Casus belli, it means a -- that would have been a cause for a war. In other words, he said, it's dangerous.

And we were right to enforce U.N. resolutions, as well. It's important for the U.N. to be a credible organization. You're not credible if you issue resolutions and then nothing happens. Credibility comes when you say something is going to happen and then it does happen. And in order to keep the peace, it's important for there to be credibility in this world, credibility on the side of freedom and hope."

You heard him say it, folks "Credibility comes when you say something is going to happen and then it does happen."

posted by Jeff | 12:16 PM |
 

Every now and again, a thought is large enough to get caught in the sieve that is my aging brain. Lately that thought has been jobs.

Yesterday the Conference Board released more-favorable-than-expected findings about consumer confidence. Orders for durable goods also improved. The stock market is inching up, and unemployment has stopped spiking. Although I haven't been tracking it as closely as I ought to, it seems that the preponderance of indicators are slightly more positive, and the general media vibe seems to be positive (that the media is business and has a vested interest in the positive vibe makes me wary). Yet in my little slice of the world, remote and unrepresentative as it may be, I sense that these indicators have nothing to do with the reality in the average American's pocketbook.

As I see it, there are three main issues: education, health care, and jobs. The first two are fairly obvious problems. Higher education is in danger of becoming a wealthy-only luxury. Tuition prices soared 14% last year--and this is the norm, not an exception. Health care costs are rising at a similar rate, which puts pressure on businesses and workers. Both of those phenomena are well-discussed and nuanced, but at least in the public press, jobs are discussed in the bluntest terms: do you have one or not?

But in individual lives, one job isn't as good as the next. My situation, by way of example, is fairly tenuous. I work as a researcher at a university, and even in the best of circumstances my employment is guaranteed only for a year. If the funding dries up, it's almost a sure bet I'll be working for less money, probably without benefits, in a less-fulfilling job (before I got hired here, I was driving a cab). You have seen the name "Iggi" appear on the comments of this blog; Iggi's a friend of mine who works as a website designer. He's also pretty much a month-by-month guy. Go check out Rantavation: no posts since the 13th. It's not negligence; Fred's lost his job and is searching for work.

At any given time, people lose their jobs--my anecdotes aren't particularly valuable. Except--and I think this is the prevailing mood across the county--that many of us are in the best jobs we're going to have. From here it's downhill. President Bush talks often about wanting to ensure that if Americans are willing to work, they'll have jobs. But some of us hope for a little more. Scratching by at half our salary, without benefits, without an obvious way to pay for our children's education, without insurance (or with insufficient insurance), in an unfulfilling job--well, this just doesn't fill our hearts with joy. As a measure of economic health from the worker's perspective, the sole measure of unemployment just doesn't seem to cut it.

posted by Jeff | 9:05 AM |


Monday, October 27, 2003  

Although you might notice the green cast to my pallor, this kind of thing makes me believe bloggers are really onto something.

posted by Jeff | 6:09 PM |
 

Something's rotten on Google, and Jesse Berney has found the source. Yesterday Atrios reported that the White House has rigged the search engines so searchers can no longer track back to the White House webpage if they search for "Iraq." (Not that, you know, anything's gone horribly wrong there.)

First, a bit of technical background. Most major websites include a text file named robots.txt that tells search engines which directories not to include in search results. (Here's an example: the Democrats.org robots.txt file lists folders with content — like images — that search engines can't index.) By adding a directory to robots.txt, you ensure that nothing in that folder will ever show up in a Google search and — more important for this discussion — never be archived by sites like Google.

Sometime between April 2003 and October 2003, someone at the White House added virtually all of the directories with "Iraq" in them to its robots.txt file, meaning that search engines would no longer list those pages in results or archive them.


What's this mean? Mainly that if the White House wants to shift a few facts, it doesn't want people having access to the pre-shifted accurate record. It's scrubbing the record.

It's easy enough to understand the reasoning if you look at past White House actions. Earlier this year, the White House revised pages on its website claiming that "combat" was over in Iraq, changing them to say "major combat."

One of the reasons some alert readers noticed the change — and were able to prove it — was that Google had archived the pages before the change occurred. Now that all of the White House pages about Iraq are no longer archived by Google, such historical revisionism will be harder to catch.


This is probably legal. I'm not sure if the administration is beholden to put anything on the web, nor if it represents a record of events. But even if there is no legal issue, one can reasonably ask the question: if George is so damn proud of his record, why is he selectively changing it and trying to hide the change?

I don't know how often you all read the DNC blog, but it's becoming one I check daily (despite criticism I have of the DNC itself). It is a booster for the Democrats, but no more than many indies; moreover, content like this is indispensable.

posted by Jeff | 1:08 PM |
 

Second, thoughts on Rumsfeld's analysis.

In essence, the Secretary was sticking to the March version of reality: Saddam is at the center of the war on terror, his regime is enormously dangerous, terror can be defeated through military force, and the US has an international mandate to pre-emptively invade with that military force to disarm Iraq. Further, his version of how things are going on the ground seems to be roughly what we were told to expect--not what's actually happening. Welcome--again--to bizarro world.

It seems clear that all rationales used to justify the war were inaccurate. Whether or not they were mendacious is almost beside the point. We now know that 1) Saddam was on the distant fringe of terror, not its center; 2) Iraq was harmless; 3) terror networks were energized and Iraq has now become the nexus of terrorist activity; and 4) the international community is growing ever more opposed to US bumbling in the region. (On this last point, we might observe that the other country employing the Bush Doctrine--Israel--is having as little success as the US and is as violently opposed by the world.)

As to the reconstruction, Rumsfeld's mystifying blindness is, of course, at the heart of the problem. US arrogance and incompetence are but components in the larger problem: the administration's failure to question its own assumptions or policies. Rather than revise assumptions and change course, this administration would rather try to revise history (even as it plays out). It's no wonder that the rest of the world is incensed by our policies; at what point does the willful act of denying reality incense America?

Rumsfeld's words should be a clarion call that this administration isn't going to change course, isn't going to question it's assumptions, and isn't going to see the situation for what it is. Time to fire up the incense?

posted by Jeff | 9:08 AM |
 

First, text juxtapositions:

Don Rumsfeld, writing in yesterday's Washington Post:

Terrorists have a sizable advantage. A terrorist can attack at any time, in any place, using virtually any technique. And it is not possible to defend every potential target at all times in every place against every form of attack. That being the case, the way to defeat terrorists is to take the war to them -- to go after them where they live and plan and hide, and to make clear to states that sponsor and harbor them that such actions will have consequences.

News from the front in Iraq:

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Suicide bombers struck the Red Cross headquarters and three police stations across Baghdad on Monday, killing at least 35 people and injuring more than 200 in a coordinated terror spree that stunned the Iraqi capital on the first day of the Islamic holy month of fasting, Ramadan.



Rumsfeld

That is what President Bush is doing in the global war on terrorism. When our nation was attacked on Sept. 11, 2001, the president immediately recognized that what had happened was an act of war and must be treated as such; that weakness can invite aggression; and that simply standing in a defensive posture and absorbing blows is not an effective way to counter it.


Iraq, yesterday

It also appeared to be a dramatic escalation in tactics, suggesting a level of organization that U.S. officials had doubted the resistance possessed. In past weeks, bombers have carried out heavy suicide bombings but in single strikes....

Sitting next to civilian U.S. Iraqi administrator L. Paul Bremer in the Oval Office, Bush said he remains "even more determined to work with the Iraqi people'' to restore peace and civility to the wartorn nation.


Rumsfeld

That is why the president is using all elements of national power: military, financial, diplomatic, law enforcement, intelligence and public diplomacy. Because to live as free people in the 21st century, we cannot live behind concrete barriers and wire mesh. We cannot live in fear and remain free people. The task is to stop terrorists before they can terrorize. And even better, we must lean forward and stop them from becoming terrorists in the first place. That is a lesson we learned two decades ago in Beirut.


Iraq

The bombings came hours after clashes around Baghdad killed three U.S. soldiers overnight, and a day after insurgents hit a hotel full of U.S. occupation officials with a barrage of rockets, killing a U.S. colonel and wounding 18 other people. U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was in the hotel, but was unhurt.

"We feel helpless when see this,'' a distraught Iraqi doctor said at the devastated Red Cross offices. The Red Cross said 12 Iraqis were killed at its office, including two employees.


Rumsfeld

That is why our country and our 90-nation coalition is at war today. That is why we have forces risking their lives at this moment, fighting terrorist adversaries in Afghanistan and Iraq and elsewhere across the world. It is also why it is critical that our country recognize that the war on terrorism will be long, difficult and dangerous -- and that as we deal with immediate terrorist threats, we also need to find ways to stop the next generation of terrorists from forming. For every terrorist whom coalition forces capture, kill, dissuade or deter, others are being trained. To win the war on terror, we must also win the war of ideas -- the battle for the minds of those who are being recruited by terrorist networks across the globe.


Iraq

The rocket attack Sunday struck the Al-Rasheed Hotel, where Wolfowitz was staying at the end of a three-day Iraq visit. The deputy defense secretary said afterward that attack "will not deter us from completing our mission'' in Iraq.

But the bold blow at the heart of the U.S. presence here clearly rattled U.S. confidence that it is defeating Iraq's shadowy insurgents.

posted by Jeff | 8:42 AM |


Sunday, October 26, 2003  

Each year, a non-profit group called the Friends of the Library hosts a book sale, the proceeds of which benefit the Multnomah County Libary. I first attended one about 8 years ago (give or take a year), and now consider it one of the most important events on the calendar. They boast that 100,000 books are for sale each year, but bibliophiles know that gross numbers don't mean anything. The question is, are there any good ones, and are they bargains? A huge yes on both counts.

Portland's a reading town. On the morning bus, more than half the riders are likely to have their noses in books--and many of these are good books. Portlanders check out more books from the library per capita than citizens of any other city. And so, the books that get donated to the Friends' sale are a select group.

(There's a point to this post, and I'm getting to it.) The sale, aside from being rockin' cool, is also an interesting window into publishing. In '95 or so, when I went to my first sale, I could easily walk down the table of fiction and select the literary fiction by the design style on the spine: lit fiction had smaller fonts, more elegant typesets, and often had textured backgrounds. Popular fiction had bold, sans-serif types, emphasized authors rather than titles, and had bright backgrounds. No more. Literary fiction styles now tend toward brighter colors and larger type, and popular fiction has ratcheted back the screamer types and colors.

More significant, the types of books being published have changed substantially. The cause, as we'll see, may be the same reason packaging styles have changed. As I picked through the books--more slowly this year, as I found it harder to distinguish the books I'd enjoy--I started seeing a familiar logo: Oprah's Book Club Selection.

As an aspiring novelist (my first novel is moving along, thanks), I have a love/hate relationship with Oprah. I love that she exposed people to literature who would never have read it. I love that she rarely deviated from straight literature into pop fiction. But her influence hasn't all been good. Generally, she wasn't able to convert readers of book club selections into readers of literature. Authors who saw million-printing spikes by Oprah selections were dismayed to see sales on their next book drop back to the old level. Also, Oprah is a human and as all humans, has idiosyncratic tastes. Hers tends toward stories of women rising from humble origins to overcome hardships. This worked very well for her audience, who also found resonance in these stories. Bur for authors who told different kinds of stories, there wasn't much hope of an Oprah choice--something the publishers were well aware of.

As I perused this year's selection of books, I saw what effect this had. Whereas books published in the early and mid-90s were much like books published since the beginning of time--white male-authored, focusing on themes of interest to males--books on the shelves now are potential Oprah selections. The industry has followed Oprah's tastes.

To be clear, I don't blame Oprah. It's the industry that lacks imagination and follows whatever might look like the next big score. It no longer nurtures authors and tries to develop a healthy backlist to keep itself in business--bookselling, now in the hands of movie studios, sees booksales as movie releases. Why screw around with a safe Merchant-Ivory profit when you can have a Jerry Bruckheimer rainmaker? And in another sense, the market is responding to economic forces--most readers are women; male hegemony in publishing defied readers' interests.

But I think an unintended consequence is that publishing, like a crackhead wanting the next score, has tried to manufacture big sales by fudging the genres. Oprah readers read literature because Oprah was guiding them; left alone, they'd rather read something lighter. Based on what I saw at the book sale this weekend, it seems publishers are trying to blur the lines. This is may or may not be a good business move, but as someone interested in the health of literature, further blurring of the lines can only be regarded as bad news. And even if you love the Oprah storyline, it means you sacrifice experimental fiction, complex, challenging fiction, and even just fiction that deviates dramatically from her tastes.

But it's not all bad news for literature. The American publishing industry may stink, but there are magnificent writers beyond our borders. My favorite thing to do is pull out a book I've never heard of and discover a masterpiece. The first time this happened with with the Basque writer Bernardo Axtaga and his delightful Obabakoak. Yesterday I discovered a book called Dictionary of the Khazars by Milorad Pavic. He's not obscure by any means, but I'm an ignorant American. Perhaps a little less so once I read his first novel. So, whatever the state of American fiction, there are other alternatives.

Hmmm. Lacking any snappy way to conclude this post, I'll just stop.

posted by Jeff | 11:47 AM |


Saturday, October 25, 2003  

How 'bout a nice Bronx cheer for the New York Yankees! They just got shut out by a 23-year old kid in the house that Ruth built. (Yeah, yeah sour grapes from a Red Sox fan, but whatcha gonna do?)





posted by Jeff | 8:48 PM |
 

Wal-Mart is quickly becoming one of the most abusive companies in America. The latest trouble they've found themselves in by hiring--and apparently taking advantage of--immigrants is just a part of this pattern of abuse.

Mr. Zavala said the contractor that he and Eunice, his wife, worked for paid them $400 a week each for working 56 hours. That would come to $6.25 an hour if time and a half overtime is included for all hours worked in excess of 40.


Abusing its employees is nothing new for Wal-Mart. I don't think many Americans were surprised by these new allegations. But the effect of this worker abuse is particularly obvious now--as supermarkets in California cite Wal-Mart's prices as a main reason they can't "afford" to pay for worker health care.

I tell you what, it's time for consumers--who are themselves workers--to strike back at these companies. Here's my pledge: until Wal-Mart unionizes, I'm not setting foot in the place.

posted by Jeff | 8:22 AM |


Friday, October 24, 2003  

In the battle of the political books, it looks like the liberals are still winning. (That's 8-4 for those of you scoring at home). Maybe I ought to submit a manuscript for Notes on the Atrocities: the Book. Striking while the iron is hot and all that...

1 DUDE, WHERE'S MY COUNTRY? by Michael Moore. (Warner, $24.95.) The author of "Stupid White Men" calls for "regime change" in Washington.

2 WHO'S LOOKING OUT FOR YOU? by Bill O'Reilly. (Broadway, $24.95.) The host of "The O'Reilly Factor" attacks those individuals and institutions that he believes have let down the American people.
3 LIES (AND THE LYING LIARS WHO TELL THEM), by Al Franken. (Dutton, $24.95.) A satirical critique of the rhetoric of right-wing pundits and politicians.

6 BUSHWHACKED, by Molly Ivins and Lou Dubose. (Random House, $24.95.) Two Texas journalists offer up an indictment of the Bush administration.

8 THE GREAT UNRAVELING, by Paul Krugman. (Norton, $25.95.) A volume of essays, most from The New York Times, that are "mainly about economic disappointment, bad leadership and the lies of the powerful."

9 PERSECUTION, by David Limbaugh. (Regnery, $27.95.) The author of "Absolute Power" argues that "liberals are waging war against Christianity." (+)

11 SHUT UP & SING, by Laura Ingraham. (Regnery, $27.95.) The political commentator attacks the "elites" of Hollywood, Washington and New York. (+)

19 STUPID WHITE MEN, by Michael Moore. (ReganBooks/HarperCollins, $24.95.)

20 LIVING HISTORY, by Hillary Rodham Clinton. (Simon & Schuster, $28.)

21 THE REAL AMERICA, by Glenn Beck. (Pocket, $25.)

29 THE LIES OF GEORGE W. BUSH, by David Corn. (Crown, $24.)

35 BIG LIES, by Joe Conason. (Thomas Dunne/St. Martin's, $24.95.)

posted by Jeff | 4:44 PM |
 

The City of Portland is billing the President for a visit he made in August. Said the mayor's office:

"This will be an ongoing policy in this administration to bill for any kind of overtime costs associated with political fund-raising events that are not open to the general public, that are clearly not part of an official's official duties....

Like most cities across the nation we are facing budget shortfalls that threaten our ability to deliver effective municipal services to the community. In order to minimize cutbacks in essential services, it is incumbent on us to reduce or eliminate some of the largest discretionary demands on our budget."


It isn't the first time the city has billed politicians for fundraising. Last year it billed Republican Senator Gordon Smith when the President came to raise money for his campaign. The city also billed his opponent, Bill Bradbury, when Clinton and Daschle came to fundraise for his campaign (Bradbury paid, Smith did not).

Are other cities doing this, too? Interesting issue.

posted by Jeff | 1:59 PM |
 

TOLEDO--Lieut. Gen. William Boykin, the deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence, is in trouble again. A week after allegations that he equated Islam with a Satan who wished "to destroy us as a Christian army," the Toledo Daily Bugle today reported that the general warned a local audience of "the Hindu scourge."

"All their petty gods will be arrayed as if on a battlefield in front of you," Boykin told a group at the Second Pentacostalist Church. "But know that your God is the true God and that these are but mere demonic phantoms. The minions of Satan are many, and they have enthralled the Hindu people."

In Delhi, an outraged Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee commented briefly outside his office. "It is inconceivable that a general in the US military should spout such rubbish. The only minions of Satan are the delusions dancing around the inside of his head. I expect an immediate apology from the President."

Boykin was speaking to a group of young missionaries here in Toledo. The group, mostly 20- and 30-year olds, are preparing for a mission in South Asia, and Boykin was apparently warning them of the everpresent danger of the Dark One. "You are embarking on a spiritual battle no less important than the battle our President has taken to the Muslims in Iraq. You will enter more peacefully, but you must fight with the truth of God's light if you are ever to save the lost souls of our Hindu brothers and sisters."

And in a related story, the Cheyenne Picayune is reporting that the general may also have identified Italians as "Papist stooges" in a speech there two years ago. No more information was available.

posted by Jeff | 11:04 AM |
 

In the time slot I normally reserve for coffee-drinking, news-perusing, and blogging, today I have a meeting. In the meantime, you might do what I do and go read Krugman. This morning he taunts the President about his bizarro world claims of victory(title: "Too Low a Bar"), hoping to pre-rebut what will surely be claims of success in the war on unemployment. (If PK starts using the phrase "bizarro world," I'll suspect him of cribbing from this blog.)

You could also check out an post I have in Open Source Politics dealing with the Portland (don't call 'em terrorists) Seven case. It's a story the fantabulous Zizka brought to my attention in an email, so you could also see what else he has to say.

I'll be back later this morning with a bit of the old Friday Satire. Ta ta.

posted by Jeff | 7:41 AM |


Thursday, October 23, 2003  

Who will win the election? Depends. George is looking good unless he faces Dean, Clark, or Gephardt. How do I know? Because astronomers say it's so.

We present an algorithm for determining the winners of United States presidential elections, based on the previous experience of the major party candidates for President and Vice President. The algorithm correctly determines the winner of each of the 54 U.S. presidential elections between 1789 and 2000. Our algorithm predicts that President George W. Bush and Vice President Richard B. Cheney will win the 2004 election unless:

1) the Democratic nominee for President is Howard B. Dean,

2) the Democratic nominee for President is Wesley K. Clark and the Democratic nominee for Vice President has been Vice President for at least two years, a governor for at least five years, or a U.S. Representative for at least five years,

3) the Democratic nominee for President is Richard A. Gephardt and the Democratic nominee for Vice President is a banker, a college or university chancellor or president, or the child of a U.S. Senator, or

4) the Democratic nominee for Vice President is Albert A. Gore, Jr. or John D. Rockefeller, IV, and the Democratic nominee for President has not been divorced, has not been a special prosecutor, and is a Protestant, Deist, or Catholic.

Although any of the currently declared Democratic candidates for President could, in theory, win in 2004 if they carefully choose their vice presidential candidates, in practice it would be difficult for many of them to find candidates for Vice President with the right combination of governmental and non-governmental experience.


Oh come on, they're probably more reliable than George Will. (Thanks to JGS.)

posted by Jeff | 3:03 PM |
 

The newest Bush judicial appointee is a real sweetheart:

"[W]here the government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."


People for the American Way describe her as "right of Scalia and Thomas." All of this has the usual level of shock and awe (for any of us who still have nerves to be shocked), but her nomination is especially timely given the whole Boykin affair: she thinks the Bill of Rights does not apply to the states. Particularly, she thinks First Amendment "establishment clause" ("Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion") doesn't apply, and one of her personal campaigns is to open state houses to Christianity. In 1999, she gave a speech titled "Beyond the Abyss: Restoring Religion on the Public Square." From the LA Times article:

The historical evidence supporting what the Supreme Court did here is pretty sketchy," Brown said in her Pepperdine speech. "The argument on the other side is pretty overwhelming'' that the 14th Amendment failed to apply the Bill of Rights to the states.


Of course, Orrin Hatch immediately started singing that old familiar tune: "There is a real difference between giving speeches and doing what is right on the bench. You have followed the law, and that's the important thing." In other words: please don't judge this political appointment on politics.

But that's exactly what Democrats should start doing. It seems that with each new nominee, Bush becomes more agressive with his pro-Christian agenda. Already the GOP is dominated fundamentalist and conservative Christians who see the First Amendment as an impediment toward establishing their faith as a state religion. The judiciary, as interpreters of the Constitution, stand between them and this goal. The founders saw fit to make process of judicial appointment a political one--and Democrats should no longer be cowed by the full reality of where this political process is leading.

Oh, and by the way, Janice Rogers Brown is black. Because I'm cynical, I expect Republicans to play the race card. Which is, of course, enormously cynical and itself racist (the only reason to oppose a black woman is because she's black). But I'll save that tirade for when the card is actually played.

posted by Jeff | 8:29 AM |
 

Clark is finally starting to offer some policy positions ... sorta. He came out with an economic plan that included a tepid patchwork of solutions: to repeal the worst of the Bush tax cuts, eliminate some corporate tax loopholes, and that old chestnut popular with all Washington outsiders--to reduce government waste. For a guy who used to teach econ, these seem like pretty marginal positions.

With war profiteering, a massive shift of federal revenues to the wealthy and business, Wall Street corruption, ballooning deficits, and real issues about how taxing and spending should be conducted, you'd hope for something a little better than this. I think what we'll see as time goes on is that Clark will run on the war, and the other candidates will run on the economy. He just had to offer up something.

But based on recent disclosures about Clark's war waffles, he may need an economic plan that's a little stronger than this.

posted by Jeff | 7:20 AM |


Wednesday, October 22, 2003  

Via Atrios, some more on governance and fundamentalist Christianity.

People close to the president say that his conversion to evangelical Methodism, after a life of aimless carousing, markedly informs his policies, both foreign and domestic. In the soon-to-be-published The Faith of George W. Bush (Tarcher/Penguin), a sympathetic account of this religious journey, author Stephen Mansfield writes (in the advance proofs) that in the election year 2000, Bush told Texas preacher James Robison, one of his spiritual mentors: "I feel like God wants me to run for president. I can't explain it, but I sense my country is going to need me. . . . I know it won't be easy on me or my family, but God wants me to do it."

Mansfield also reports: "Aides found him face down on the floor in prayer in the Oval Office. It became known that he refused to eat sweets while American troops were in Iraq, a partial fast seldom reported of an American president. And he framed America's challenges in nearly biblical language. Saddam Hussein is an evildoer. He has to go." The author concludes: " . . . the Bush administration does deeply reflect its leader, and this means that policy, even in military matters, will be processed in terms of the personal, in terms of the moral, and in terms of a sense of divine purpose that propels the present to meet the challenges of its time."

| link |


Also, interesting commentary on the author of that forthcoming book in the comments thread.

posted by Jeff | 3:26 PM |
 

Money breakdowns, third quarter.

George W. Bush
Total: $50 million
Less than $200: 12%
More than $2000: 69%

Howard Dean
Total: $14.8 million
Less than $200: 61%
More than $2000: 6%

John Kerry
Total:$4 million
Less than $200: 19%
More than $2000: 36%

Dick Gephardt
Total: $3.8 million
Less than $200: 15%
More than $2000: 39%

Joe Lieberman
Total $3.6 million
Less than $200: 11%
More than $2000: 36%

Wesley Clark
Total $3.5 million
Less than $200: 38%
More than $2000: 26%

John Edwards
Total $2.1 million
Less than $200: 17%
More than $2000: 38%

Dennis Kucinich
Total $1.7 million
Less than $200: 68%
More than $2000: 5%

Carol Mosely Braun
Total $125,000
Less than $200: 31%
More than $2000: 14%

Al Sharpton
Total $121,000
Less than $200: 7%
More than $2000: 59%

posted by Jeff | 12:06 PM |
 

Thought I'd let this Boykin business go by? Not likely.

(Boykin, for those who, like me, might have been on self-imposed media-free vacations last week, is Lt. General William Boykin, the new deputy undersecretary of Defense for intelligence. The LA Times reported last week that he has said many a fervent thing since his promotion. "I knew my God was bigger than [the Muslim warlord's he fought in Somalia]. I knew that my God was a real God and his was an idol." Not clear enough? Try this on for size: "We in the army of God, in the house of God, kingdom of God have been raised for such a time as this." And in another article, he is quoted as having said--in uniform, no less--"I want to impress upon you that the battle that we're in is a spiritual battle. Satan wants to destroy this nation, he wants to destroy us as a nation, and he wants to destroy us as a Christian army." So that's Boykin.)

He has been pretty much excoriated by everyone except Donald Rumsfeld, who yet waffles. Most have smelled the stink of doom on the situation, and are quickly beating a hasty retreat. It's Trent Lott Revisited, and the rats can feel the ship going down.

Still, in the midst of these kinds of blow-outs (see also Limbaugh, quote about Donovan McNabb), it's not always clear what the crime is. The immediate defense is always to assert the First Amendment. It's the PC cops who are committing the crime. But no one is saying he doesn't have the right to say what he believes.

In fact, although I may be excoriated for this myself, I think he's being attacked exactly for exercising his right to say what he believes. The real crime here is that he told the truth. It's an uncomfortable and strange truth, and the kind of thing fundamentalist Christians try not to mention publicly. But the belief Boykin gave voice to isn't heterodox; it's mainstream (if you can call it that) fundamentalist Christianity.

Fundamentalist Christianity is a system of beliefs. It is based on a narrow reading of the Bible, distilling a "literal" truth from the words (although where contradictions arise--and there are many--Biblical literalists rarely admit interpretation). In that literal truth followers are asked to believe without reservation. Unwavering faith is a central feature of this strain of Christianity, and in Bibles across America, one of the truths congregants are asked to believe is that those who follow other religions are deluded by Satan and doomed to burn in hell. There's no wiggle room here. Muslims--even the good ones--are just biding their time until death delivers them into the hands of the deluder Satan. Thus the language of fundamentalist Christianity is often militaristic--the armies of God--because these Christians believe everything is at stake.

So is it any wonder that the fundamentalist Christians interpret terrorism as Satan wanting "to destroy us as a Christian army?" Boykin's a good soldier, both of Uncle Sam and of God. His main crime here is that he went public with his beliefs. It's both impolite and poor politics, and now he'll have to take one for the cause.

My problem isn't that he has said these things, but that the fundamentalist Christian agenda governs the decisions of those who govern the country. (I've written about the prevalence of fundamentalist Christianity here, here, and here, and there's a wonderful article in Harper's here.) If the very views he expresses show that he's implementing policy based on those radical religious views, then he's unfit to lead.

The nature of belief is that it doesn't admit for the possibility of flexibility--something essential in a democracy. That's what's so creepy about Osama. So it's not that Boykin shouldn't be allowed to say whatever he wishes. The David Koresh's of the world should also be able to proclaim themselves God. But let's be clear: David Koresh's views that he is God would make him unfit to be the deputy undersecretary of Defense for intelligence. In politics, beliefs do matter.

Whether Boykin is run out or not, the views he expressed should remain under scrutiny. Remember, they're the same views that our President holds.

posted by Jeff | 8:07 AM |


Tuesday, October 21, 2003  

Kucinich may not win, but tell me this: is there a single liberal out there doesn't secretly think that he totally rocks? Via Jeanne, a picture that should stir a thousand hearts.





Following this thread, John Isbell made the most succinct case for Kucinich I've heard: "In the primaries, vote for your heart. Worry about your head in the general. In the meantime, shape the party."

posted by Jeff | 12:51 PM |
 

Two more observations on Vermont.

One. Vermont is supposedly the state Howard Dean governed. Maybe they don't know he's running for President. I saw--and though I'm prone to hyperbolic hyperboles, this is an actual count--exactly no bumper stickers or lawn signs for the good doctor. I did see a signed photograph wherein Dean was holding up a T-Shirt for the the Taftsville Country Store (mounted on the wall of the Taftsville Country Store, natch)--but he was the governor then. I mentioned to the woman selling me maple syrup that if he wins, the picture will be a "hell of a thing." She nodded mildly, as if I'd observed that the leaves were pretty. I have no analysis for this strange behavior--I haven't the faintest idea what it means.

Two. Although it didn't occur to me at the time, the New York Corolla we rented wasn't exactly the best car on the lot. It all came together while we were checked into to hotel. The woman at the front desk had one eye on the TV as she signed us in--it was the eighth inning of game six, and the Sox had just gone ahead by two runs. "License plate number?" she asked. Ooops. I quickly scrawled out a "Go Red Sox" sign and mounted it in the back of the car.

In fact, we were Red Sox fans. And believe it or not, for all you Beantowners from across the country, it was a lot better to be in New England after that atrocious game 7. Misery loves company, and it had a lot.

(We flew through Chicago, and they had just lost game 6. The Sun-Times had a front-page photo of the offending fan and a 100-point headline: "Curses!" Ah the misery.)

posted by Jeff | 11:17 AM |
 

Via a string of links (starting with TBogg, going to Tom Tomorrow, then to Iggi, finally to me), I see that John McArthur decided to throw himself into the alligator pit that is the Sean Hannity show (he was joined by the delightful Ann Coulter). All of it is beyond fascinating, in that bizarro world sense, but I thought I'd pass along this tidbit from Ann "I'm something of an authority on the grounds for impeachment" Coulter:

"[Impeachment's] certainly not for something that is in the president's prerogative, such as waging war, for example."


She is obviously no authority on the Consititution, however.

posted by Jeff | 9:52 AM |
 

Good news: the 2003 federal deficit was only $374 billion! In bizarro world, Bush administration officials have, of course, promptly declared this a victory. Sure, it may be a record, but it's nearly a hundred billion less than expected!

"Today's budget numbers reinforce the indications we have seen for some months now: that the economy is well on the path to recovery,'' Treasury Secretary John Snow said.


Yes, in bizarro world, you can call catastrophes success. This is, in fact, essentially the MO of the Bush playbook. Recall back when he debated Gore? The only way he could have lost the debate was to openly drool and confuse Texas and Mexico. In the first debate, he declared that the US ought to let the Russians take the lead in Kosovo. Result? Victory.

He took office in the midst of a recession and speedily worsened it. Surpluses became deficits, employment became unemployment, deflation loomed. Result? Victory--imagine how much worse it would have been worse without the tax cuts! New York was bombed, and he went on a personal crusade to "smoke out" Osama bin Laden. After invading Afghanistan, Osama mocked him. Result? Victory--the Taliban is vanquished. Then Iraq, the new big bad on the block. We commit tens of thousands of troops and hundreds of billions of dollars to invade and discover that Iraq's threat was roughly as serious as Nepal's. Result? Victory--the Iraqi people have been liberated from a brutal dictator.

I knew the second I heard the news about the lower-than-expected catastrophic deficits that the Bushies would declare victory. But fortunately, not everyone was taken in this time. Despite the spin, the headlines aren't, as they would have been three years ago, "Economy Rebounding Despite Deficits." Instead, they mostly seem to be of the "Federal Deficit at Record High" variety.

Even more encouraging, the Democrats seem to have found their spine. Kent Conrad of North Dakota noted dryly, "I'm somewhat amused to see them say they thought that was good news." They're even starting to understand how it works in bizarro world: SC Senator Hollings thinks the OMB has been playing with the numbers just so the White House can claim a victory when record deficits arrive. Now they've got their thinking caps on.

Still, I greet this fascinating news with ambivalence. Five days in my no-cynicism zone was mighty refreshing. I wish somehow it wasn't the same old crap--no matter how fascinating--the second I get back. Ah well.

posted by Jeff | 7:18 AM |
 

At what point does the US criticize Israel? Each week the government bombs Palestinians indiscriminately, killing innocents along with "targets" regarded by the government as dangerous--whether or not they have been tried and convicted of crimes. Yesterday was particularly violent: in five air strikes, Israelis killed 11 and wounded 130. (According to one report, a bomb exploded on a street crowded with school children, wounding four.)

Israel has routinely been given a pass by non-Muslim countries (led, of course, by the patronage of the US) because it is under a constant terrorist attack. Anything can be justified as a response: collateral damage, new settlements, retributive bombings based on scant information. Feeling justified by the terrorist attacks, Israel responds in kind.

I think Americans have resisted looking at the situation there as something akin to Kosovo or Rwanda. Israel is a first world country and a long-time ally. It is the cradle of Christian civilization, and in the battle of the sons of Abraham, American Christians have increasingly sided with Jews. For Israelis to commit such barbarism is unthinkable. Yet not only is it thinkable, but this barbarism appears to be unfolding. It doesn't take a psychic to imagine that this situation--always volatile--may be at the moment of combustion where it is escalating into a full-scale race war.

You don't have to take sides to be horrified by the scene; you don't have to be partisan to demand action. In this battle of unequal powers, Israel, despite the wrongs it believes it has suffered, must take the lead. The situation cannot change if the government continues a war of terrorist extermination--it will only worsen. In the meantime, human rights atrocities become the norm, and any hope of long-term stability are diminished. Israel, for its own sake, needs to be the leader for peace. If it cannot make this difficult choice, the world is going to have to start demanding it. And calling terrorism terrorism--no matter who perpetrates it.

posted by Jeff | 6:49 AM |


Monday, October 20, 2003  

Back from Vermont, and I'm pleased to see that the house had neither been broken into nor burned down. Also, it appears that the government has also weathered the five days I didn't monitor it--no impeachments or lethal duels, it seems. Fancy that.

But let's get right to the important stuff: you're no doubt dying for a report on the foliage. As you may recall, I was dubious about all this foliage business--official reports, breathless news of peak, near-peak, pre-peak, and late peak leaf color, fetishistic fawning (and let us not discuss the noun "peepers"--those who peep at the pre-peak leaf). I mean, a lot of us live in the north; are Vermont's leaves really so hot?

(On the edge of your seat, aren't you?)

I have to punt. We flew into a windstorm buffetting New England last Wednesday, and it shook down most of the leaves. Anyway, that's what locals swore the next day. (The official news was far more positive: "Foresters from Burlington, Middlebury, Rutland, Bennington, Springfield and Brattleboro areas report all low elevations are near or at peak with plenty of locations where the color couldn't possibly be better.") It makes you wonder: Vermont's supposed to have the best leaves and the best maple syrup, and yet it's just a tiny sliver of land surrounded by other states that might make similar claims. Are the leaves in upstate New York inferior? Is New Hampshire maple syrup really less sweet? It led me to conclude, privately (though less so now), that Vermont did indeed excel: at marketing.

But no matter, Vermont does rock, if not for the reasons the tourist board claims. It rocks principally because of its essential nature--and how different that nature is from anything out here in the west.

Age. All right, this is a gimme, right? Of course New England can play the trump card of historical relevance on the west: when Lewis and Clark were huddled out in the rain in Fort Clatsop, most of Vermont's towns had already been inhabited for a half-century or more. But it's not just that the buildings of Vermont are older. They are. In the town I stayed in, most of them dated to between 1810-1850. Rather, it's that all the buildings are old. Drive through a small Oregon town, and there will be a historic downtown with several 100-year-old buildings. This will be surrounded by successive rings of new, trashy construction, which, near the freeway, will become a neon-bright run of fast-food restaurants. Drive south from Burlington along the old highways (100 is a good choice), and you will see nary a fast food restaurant for a hudred miles.

Size. A characteristic all Easterners notice when they arrive in the West (particularly the Intermountain West) is the pioneer spirit. The opposite is true of Vermont. One is immediately aware of being in a small state surrounded by larger, more powerful states. Far from the small towns feeling an inexorable pull toward the cities, Vermont has the feel of cultivated ruralness. Although the mountains are really just hills and the forests have the cultured quality of a Japanese garden, Vermont has encouraged a sense of outdoorsiness. But it's not wild. In Oregon, if you live in Wallowa County in the NE corner of the state, you are three hours from Portland, Boise, and Spokane.

Wealth. Small towns in the West are grindingly poor, or are fake boutique communities surviving on tourism. In neither case do you find residents of wealth or influence. In the west, the only seats of power are cities, and this causes an almost universal imbalance socially and politically. In Vermont you get the sense that's not true. People who earn their fortune in the cities retire to Vermont. Nobody retires in Burns, Oregon. A big part of why there are no McDonald's (I speculate) is that the wealthy who have chosen an 1825 farmhouse next to a dairy farm across the covered bridge from the historic township don't want the gauche yellow of McDonald's destroying their view.

I didn't realize that this kind of America still existed. The foliage was cool, if a bit oversold. The syrup was good, if no better than the Maine syrup favored by my Mainer spouse. But these intact, unsullied small towns, those were something to see.

posted by Jeff | 5:56 PM |


Wednesday, October 15, 2003  

The Last Five Minutes of Bill O'Reilly on "Fresh Air"

Oh, and to keep the fires warm, I'll leave you with this.

I pick up the transcript at about the 35-minute mark; the entire interview ran just over 40 minutes. On his own "Factor" website, O'Reilly quotes from some of the interview but not, as you'll see, verbatim. When the section he quotes picks up, I'll put into bold the excerpts from his page. I cleaned up his version slightly--it wasn't accurate--and the emphasis is all mine. But please, listen to the interview--I think you'll agree the emphasis was there. Have a good week; I'll see you on Tuesday the 21st.

--------------------------------

TERRY GROSS: I'd actually like to ask you about something that pertains to something we were talking about earlier—book reviews? You know, we were talking about that Janet Maslin review of the Al Franken book and the things that you said about her? There was a review--I was just reading a review of your new book in People Magazine . Did you see this one?

BILL O'REILLY: I see 'em all.

GROSS: So the reviewer said--let me get this. . . Wouldn't you know it? I'm having trouble finding it now. Basically the reviewer said that after he reviewed your previous book, he tuned into your show and heard you ridiculing him

O'REILLY: Right, because he reviewed me, not the book.

GROSS: Uh-huh.

O'REILLY: This is a very, very, very well-known tactic. If you want to read reviews of my book, go to Publisher's Weekly or people who review the book, not me. See now it's easy for--and I see all the reviews of my book--most of them are good. Publisher's Weekly is a rave, all right? But the guys who are reviewing me--I'm going, "Why are you doing this?" We had one in the Denver Post the other day. Well this guy's reviewing me, not the book. And it's just another example of, "Look, we don't like him." And I understand if you don't like me. That's fine, that's entirely your opinion. But don't take your ire out on my product because you don't like me. I mean this guy makes no pretense that he can't stand me. He didn't in the first, he didn't in this. So what is that? You know, if it were me, I'd recuse myself. If Jesse Jackson writes a book, I'm not going to do a book review on him. I've been very hard on that man. I'm not going to review his book--that's not fair. So if these guys hate me, I'm not going to allow them to read the book. So if you want to know about the book, you can read those reviews, but read Publisher's Weekly--fair and balanced.

GROSS: Do you think that it might have a chilling effect on book reviewers to know that if you give them a bad review, you're going to be mocking them on your show?

O'REILLY: Depends on the review.

GROSS: Uh-huh.

O'REILLY: Depends on the review. If the guy reviews the book, not me, I'm not going to say anything. Because you know--they don't, they criticize my show all the time. And you have a perfect right to do that. You know, go ahead and do it, you know. Fine. I don't get on the show and go, "ohhhh, so and so doesn't like the fact . . . ." You know. You don't like the "Factor," you don't like the "Factor." But once you step out and say, all right, "I don't like him, and I'm gonna hammer whatever he does because I don't like him." That's just dishonest and I'm going to call you on it.

GROSS: I'll read what the People Magazine thing said--

O'REILLY: Why?

GROSS: --and--

O'REILLY: Why read it? Why read it?

GROSS: Because I want to people to hear it.

O'REILLY: Why?

GROSS: Because it--

O'REILLY: Why!

GROSS: --you'll hear when I'm done.

O'REILLY: Why!

GROSS: (Awkward laugh, inaudible.)

O'REILLY: You know, I'm getting the feeling in this interview, all right, that this is just a hatchet job on me. All right? And I don't like it. Now there's no reason for you to read that People Magazine review. If they want to read it, they can go and read it.

GROSS: No, but this isn't the review of the book--

O'REILLY: Now wait a minute. Hold it, hold it.

GROSS: --it isn't the review, it's how you handled it. And I think it's okay to ask you to be accountable for the things that you said.

O'REILLY: Accountable for what? You know, I came on this show, I came on to this program to talk about Who's Looking Out for You? And what you've done is thrown every kind of defamation you can in my face. All right, did you do this to Al Franken? Did you? Did you challenge him on what he said?

GROSS: We had a different interview.

O'REILLY: Yeah, a different interview. Okay. Fine, "Fresh Air?" Is this what "Fresh Air" is? I'll get a transcript of this interview--you want me--of the Al Franken interview. You want me to do that, and compare the two?

GROSS: You're welcome to.

O'REILLY: And compared it, too?


GROSS: You're welcome to.

O'REILLY: All right, why don't you tell your listeners right now? Were you as tough on Al Franken as you are on me?

GROSS: Ah--

O'REILLY: No. You weren't.

GROSS: No, I wasn't.

O'REILLY: Okay. Why!

GROSS: Well, Al Franken had written a book of political satire--

O'REILLY: Oh, he was satire now, was it?


GROSS: --and

O'REILLY: All right, calling people liars and distorting their faces on the book cover. That's satire now, is it? And my book, Who's Looking Out for You? is designed to help people to show them how they have to know how to read people in the society to succeed. Yet you're easy on Franken and you challenge me. This is NPR. Okay? I think we all know what this is. I think we all know where you're going with this.

GROSS: Well--

O'REILLY: Don't we!

GROSS: Well, you could say. . .

O'REILLY: Yes! Don't we?

GROSS: You can think whatever you want to.

O'REILLY: I am! I mean, I'm evaluating this interview very closely.


GROSS: Obviously you are.

O'REILLY: Now we've spent now, all right?

GROSS: Uh-huh.

O'REILLY: 50 minutes of me being -- defending defamation against me in every possible way, while you gave Al Franken a complete pass on his defamatory book. And if you think that's fair, Terry, then you need to get in another business. I'll tell you that right now. And I'll tell your listeners, if you have the courage to put this on the air, this is basically an unfair interview designed to try to trap me into saying something that Harpers can use. And you know it. And you should be ashamed of yourself. And that is the end of this interview.

GROSS: Oh, so you're not even going to give me the chance to ask a follow-up question? You have to make a speech and then have the last word? (Pause.) You're gone? Okay, I guess that's the answer to that question. (Laughing.) He's walked out. Okay, well my guest has been Bill O'Reilly and he does have a new book and that book is called Who's Looking Out for You? And I guess that's it for this interview.

------------------------

Bonus material: the People Magazine text Bill wouldn't let Terry read:

"After I unfavorably reviewed the FoxNews Channel star's last book, I turned on the TV to find I was O'Reilly's "Most Ridiculous Item of the Day." The big guy said on the "O'Reilly Factor:" "Review the book, not me." Then, he called me a pinhead. Consistency isn't his best feature."
(Kyle Smith)

(And incidentally, after Terry's interview, she too made the "Most Ridiculous Item of the Day.")

posted by Jeff | 6:26 AM |
 

Well, I'm off to Vermont for the week. It's possible I could scare up a computer if I really tried, but I'm not going to--instead I'll be focusing on nothing but the nature of Vermont leaf color and the complexity of the maple syrup. I may not even watch, listen, or read the news. (Yeah, fat chance.)

But I'll leave you with a couple of items. Over on Open Source Politics, I've prepared a quiz for the coming election year, ala Bill Safire. Also, on Friday, I describe why Kill Bill: Vol. 1 qualifies as the world's first example of metafilm.

Watch the fort, will you?

posted by Jeff | 6:20 AM |


Tuesday, October 14, 2003  

The Limbaugh story has unexpectedly gotten a lot of attention today and I idly followed the thread as I ate my yakisoba noodles. Some of it is idly fascinating, if you're looking to kill some time.

The very best thing you'll read on the topic is commentary by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, coming via Calpundit. It's not really satire--it's hypothesis about how Rush might spin the Rush story if it were Clinton who was in hot water. I say it's not satire because it's too accurate. It doesn't indict Rush for his addiction, but how he's made a career out of cruelty and spin. Imagine Rush's voice rolling out of your car radio...

"That's interesting, folks, because if you look at his actual statement - not what the liberal media say he said, but what he really said - you get a different take on it. First, he says he's got back problems. So he's blaming it on that. Then he says he had surgery, but the surgery wasn't successful. So he's blaming it on the doctors. Then he says the pain medication was addictive. So he's blaming it on the pharmaceutical companies. Folks, he blames it on everybody but himself! But as long as he puts in that obligatory line about taking responsibility, that's what the liberal media are going to grab: Clinton takes full responsibility!"


Go read the full article--it's amazing. Then via Atrios, we have quotes from Rush on three occasions when he went after drug users. I'll excerpt from two here:

1. (1993) What he's saying is that if there's a line of cocaine here, I have to make the choice to go down and sniff it. And I don't know how--how to do it, but if I was going to do it, I'd do it. If there were a gun here, it wouldn't fire itself. I've got to reach for it and--and pull the trigger. And his point is that we are rationalizing all this irresponsibility and all the choices people are making and we're blaming not them, but society for it. All these Hollywood celebrities say the reason they're weird and bizarre is because they were abused by their parents. So we're going to pay for that kind of rehab, too, and we shouldn't. It's not our responsibility.

2. (1996) In fact, I'm reminded--I had this story about three weeks ag--maybe it was before Christmas, maybe it was as far back as November--but there were a couple of drug convictions out in--I think it was a Colorado court. And these guys had--had done some really bad stuff, and there were mandated federal sentences for the crimes they had committed. And the judge apologized to the criminals while sentencing them because he thought it was too severe. He apologized and the com--the community was outraged. So we've gone from a judge sentencing a mother who makes her child beg six months in jail, to judges apologizing for getting dope dealers and crack dealers and drug salesmen off the streets with too severe a sentence.


All right, done with the noodles, done with this post.

posted by Jeff | 12:09 PM |
 

Yesterday I talked a little about labor. My intent was to argue that this was an issue about power and that the worker is increasingly losing power--thanks to diminishing union membership and increasing power of corporations over employees and law. It occurred to me that I hadn't really offered any evidence that it's getting harder for workers to make ends meet, which makes for a pretty poor case indeed. Let me rectify that.

Digging around the Bureau of Labor Statistics, I found a few telling numbers (I can't link directly to the outputs, but they're there). First, looking solely at medium and large employers (not fair to ding the small businesses), I wondered how workers are doing on bennies. Not well.

Incidence of medical care benefits: 1980 - 97%; 1997 - 76%
Incidence of paid vactions: 1979 - 100%; 1997 - 95%
Incidence of paid sick leave: 1980 - 62%; 1997 - 56%
Incidence of defined benefit pension: 1980 - 84%; 1997 - 50%
Average number of paid holidays: 1980 - 10.1%; 1997 - 9.3%
Incidence of paid holidays: 1980 - 99%; 1997 - 89%


All right then, what about wages? The Census Bureau shows that wages have been kept down for lower-income earners relative to middle and upper. I attempted to insert a handy table here, but my brain is too wee for such antics (or at least the technical part of it). So bear with the following stats. Based on wages calculated in 2001 dollars, we can see how much growth each percentile of the income distribution experienced over a 32-year period.

The bottom 20th Percent
(Year, top income in the bracket, percent growth over last interval)
1967 - 13,474
1977 - 14,986, 11%
1987 - 16,094, 7%
1999 - 18,161, 13%
total growth between '67-'99: 35%

Median income (50th percentile)
1967 - 32,081, 9%
1977 - 34,989, 11%
1987 - 38,835, 11%
1999 - 43,107, 34%
total growth between '67-'99: 34%

80th percentile
1967 - 53,181
1977 - 62,130, 17%
1987 - 72,069, 16%
1999 - 83,830, 16%
total growth between '67-'99: 58%

95th percentile
1967 - 85,334
1977 - 100,441, 18%
1987 - 120,597, 20%
1999 - 149,992, 24%
total growth between '67-'99: 76%


I don't have time to look into hours worked, hours worked per household, and household incomes, but I bet we'd find that these indices also show it's harder and harder for families to get by. If anyone else wants to dig around for those data, I'll be happy to add them here.

posted by Jeff | 9:08 AM |
 

John Ashcroft says he's not going too far--the various provisions of the Patriot Act and his witch hunts on pet crimes are all just good policing. Yeah? Well this is a guy who wanted to throw medical doctors in the pokey for even discussing the benefits of marijuana. Fortunately, the judiciary has a dim memory that this is a democracy and yesterday the Supremes decided not to hear an appeal of a lower court ruling that punishing doctors for discussing medicine was lunacy. (All right, "lunacy" is my word.)

The administration, which has taken a hard stand against the state laws, argued that public heath -- not the First Amendment free-speech rights of doctors or patients -- was at stake.


This is scary stuff folks. Everyone in the country should feel a cold shiver after reading this news--irrespective of political stripe.

posted by Jeff | 8:38 AM |


Monday, October 13, 2003  

Some of my best friends are Italian:

"Every aspect of our culture, whether it be art or music, to law and politics, owes something to the influence of Italian Americans. You can take special pride in the deep tradition of service to this country. People of Italian descent oftentimes hear the call to serve something greater than themselves. Twenty-four Italian Americans have won the Congressional Medal of Honor, that's high service to something greater than yourself."


That, of course, is our President, celebrating Columbus. (I don't think there's any truth to that rumor he thought Columbus was English because his first name is "Christopher," either....) The comic relief part of the speech, really--right before he went on a cyncial ode to soldiers to try to aggrandize his own vanity in sacrificing hundreds of American lives and billions of dollars to sack a country no more threatening than Iowa.

Yes, George, you are indeed the equal of FDR!

posted by Jeff | 5:57 PM |
 

Kinsley, speaking the wisdom:

They think that Clark has the best chance of defeating George Bush and that nothing else matters. Their assessment is based on what seems to me a simple-minded view that you can place all the candidates on a political spectrum, then pick the one who's as far toward the other side as your side can bear, and call it pragmatism.

How pragmatic is it, though, to snub the one candidate who seems to be able to get people's juices flowing -- that would be Howard Dean -- in favor of one with nothing interesting to say, on the theory that this, plus the uniform stashed in the back of his closet, will make him appealing to people you disagree with? When the odds are against you, as they are for the Democrats in 2004, caution and calculation can be the opposite of pragmatism.

posted by Jeff | 1:40 PM |
 

In the discussion of the economy, one element gets precious little attention: labor. Last night 70,000 grocery store workers went on strike in California. At hand is the issue of health care--neither labor nor the grocery store owners want to pay the $1 billion of increased costs (Von's, Ralph's, and Albertson's are the chains in question). An additional pressure, according to management, is non-union stores like Wal-Mart who have far lower labor costs. The stores say they aren't competitive, the unions say their workers can't afford the increase in health care costs.

As always, it's become a battle of perception: which side will successfully paint the other as greedy? If the workers can do it, people will shop at other stores in the area, forcing the supermarkets to lose money and become compliant. If the chains are successful (and their resources are certainly far greater), they'll make the workers look like overpaid ingrates who are willing to endanger the business for their greedy ends. People will continue to shop, and the workers will eventually run out of money and become compliant.

For some reason, Americans generally tilt toward management. Perhaps it's our innately entrepreneurial culture. Or maybe it's because so many workers don't themselves make good money or have benefits and so are resentful--a view management has always exploited. (Although in this case, full-time union workers are making relatively modest incomes--an average of $12-$14 an hour, or $25-$29k; moreover, 80% are not full time.)

Arguing from the labor side, I have two thoughts. The first is that this is business, not public policy. Management tries to make its point by appealing to people's sense of fair play. But there's no fair play in business--its very nature is a transaction of self-interest. So why should labor play by a sense of fair play while management--who certainly look out for themselves before business interests--get stinkin' rich? The argument is patently disengenous. The issue here is power. Unions are hated and opposed by management because they give workers power. In the PR game, the only card management has is the phony fair-play argument.

The second thought is this: if we are innately entrepreneurial, why is it that this impulse only extends to management, not labor. The thing workers sell is their sweat, so why shouldn't they be entreprenuerial in extracting the most for this commodity? It's supply and demand, right? Workers are somehow exempt from advocating for their product?

The biggest problem with labor right now is that so few workers think in terms of their own value. Wal-Mart employees are certainly worth more than nine bucks an hour. But because workers have been beaten down for so long to disrespect their own value, they don't organize or advocate for their rights. If Wal-Mart went union, would the company go out of business? It's an absurd proposition. Two things would happen: prices would go up marginally, and profits would go down marginally. But the reason Wal-Mart's prices are so good in the first place is because the workers are subsidizing them out of their own pay. Wal-Mart wants to continue to make huge profits so management and share-holders continue to get stinking rich--again, a position dependent on the impoverishment of the workers.

Until workers look at their union brethern as standard-bearers for the cause, workers are going to continue to have to work harder for less. The $9-an-hour Wal-Mart checkers shouldn't ask the question "Why should an Albertsons checker get paid four bucks more an hour than me?" Instead, they should ask, "Should employees of national and multi-national corporations earn a living wage?" The answer is obviously yes. The Albertson's checker should earn that living wage, and the Wal-Mart checker should, too.

Don't cross the picket line. Safe to say those companies will land on their feet. The workers might not.

-----------------------
Additional sources:
Nathan Newman
Economists for Dean

posted by Jeff | 8:42 AM |
 

Trivia quiz. Who said the following?

"Most of the American people are just tuning into this race, incidentally, as they are catching on to George W. Bush. My campaign team tells me that I'll be considered the front-runner after people start voting. The point here is that this is an undecided race."


Extra credit: write an essay describing whether the statement is true or false.

posted by Jeff | 8:23 AM |


Sunday, October 12, 2003  

Sportsblog

Anyone who has even a vague interest in athletics must find their attention turning to the sports page come October. A few comments from the peanut gallery.

1. Wisconsin. My alma mater (M.A., 1994) knocked off the reigning champs this Saturday in the Camp. Now, an embarrassing loss to UNLV (not to mention a scary Sooner team) puts national title hopes out of the picture, but who cares? We still have a shot at the ROSE BOWL. And no matter what the rest of the country argues, Pac and Big Ten fans know that this is the only show in town.

2. The Oregon connection. I grew up in the West, but didn't go to a Pac 10 school. Nevertheless, I happen to be blessed with proximity, and so I keep an eye on the local kids. As I mentioned before the Michigan game, the Ducks are going to have a mediocre season (hey, beating Michigan somewhat offsets a 6-6 record, right?). But look at these Oregon State Beavers. With all the upsets this week, expect a top-25 ranking. And with a top-25 ranking, expect this guy to get some Heisman run.

3. Green Bay Packers. You don't live in Wisconsin for three years without becoming a die-hard cheesehead. We lost a heartbreaker in Lambeau today and now we're 3-3. Guess what? That means a respectable 13-3 record is still in play.

4. Baseball. Like everyone else in America, I'm becoming increasingly excited about the prospect of a Cubs-Red Sox World Series. And yet I wonder. Might we lose something valuable if either team wins the series? I mean, as it is, the institutions of the "Curse of the Bambino" and "Billy Goat Curse" are indelible. They're as American as anything since the Boston Tea Party.

It is unlikely that very few humans recall the last time either team won the series. Four generations of fans have been raised on failure. Communism rose and fell since the Cubbies last won. Air flight was invented. Depressions and recessions have come and gone. Wars have been waged. Nukes were invented and we lived through mad MAD times. And yet through it all, we enjoyed the consistency of Red Sox and Cubs failures. The close calls made it that much more delicious.

Will the world still be right if the Cubs win the world series? We'll celebrate for a few minutes (or if you live in Chi-town, a few days), but then we're confronted with an uncomfortable prospect: next year. All of a sudden, it won't seem to certain anymore. I know, I know, it's impossible to turn on the TV and root against either team--especially when that means rooting for the preening, despicable Yankees. But in the end, I wonder. Think about it: The World Champion Chicago Cubs. If we have to come to terms with that, isn't anything possible? I shudder to think.

posted by Jeff | 8:59 PM |


Saturday, October 11, 2003  

Nicholas Kristof has some of the first new news I've seen about Valerie Plame in a long time. He adds a dose of sober objectivity.

First, the C.I.A. suspected that Aldrich Ames had given Mrs. Wilson's name (along with those of other spies) to the Russians before his espionage arrest in 1994. So her undercover security was undermined at that time, and she was brought back to Washington for safety reasons.

Second, as Mrs. Wilson rose in the agency, she was already in transition away from undercover work to management, and to liaison roles with other intelligence agencies. So this year, even before she was outed, she was moving away from "noc" — which means non-official cover, like pretending to be a business executive. After passing as an energy analyst for Brewster-Jennings & Associates, a C.I.A. front company, she was switching to a new cover as a State Department official, affording her diplomatic protection without having "C.I.A." stamped on her forehead.

Third, Mrs. Wilson's intelligence connections became known a bit in Washington as she rose in the C.I.A. and moved to State Department cover, but her job remained a closely held secret. Even her classmates in the C.I.A.'s career training program mostly knew her only as Valerie P. That way, if one spook defected, the damage would be limited.


So that's the back story. Kristof then offers some thoughts one the political games playing out as a result of leaking the information.

Moreover, the Democrats cheapen the debate with calls, at the very beginning of the process, for a special counsel to investigate the White House. Hillary Rodham Clinton knows better than anyone how destructive and distracting a special counsel investigation can be, interfering with the basic task of governing, and it's sad to see her display the same pusillanimous partisanship that Republicans showed just a few years ago.

If Democrats have politicized the scandal and exaggerated it, Republicans have inexcusably tried to whitewash it. The leak risked the security of all operatives who had used Brewster-Jennings as cover, as well as of all assets ever seen with Mrs. Wilson. Unwitting sources will now realize that they were supplying the C.I.A. with information, and even real agents may fear exposure and vanish.


And finally, for good measure, he comments on Novak.

We in journalism are also wrong, I think, to extend professional courtesy to Robert Novak, by looking beyond him to the leaker. True, he says he didn't think anyone would be endangered. Working abroad in ugly corners of the world, American journalists often learn the identities of American C.I.A. officers, but we never publish their names. I find Mr. Novak's decision to do so just as inexcusable as the decision of administration officials to leak it.

posted by Jeff | 8:15 AM |


Friday, October 10, 2003  

Is everybody already on this?

Conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh announced during his radio show Friday that he is addicted to painkillers and is checking into a rehab center to "break the hold this highly addictive medication has on me."

"... Immediately following this broadcast, I am checking myself into a treatment center for the next 30 days to once and for all break the hold this highly addictive medication has on me," he added.

...Law enforcement sources who spoke on condition of anonymity confirmed to The Associated Press that Limbaugh was being investigated by the Palm Beach County, Fla., state attorney's office.

"At the present time, the authorities are conducting an investigation, and I have been asked to limit my public comments until this investigation is complete," Limbaugh said.


For this story to break on Satire Friday again shows its obsolescence. The mind boggles at the irony of such a story. Who wants to go first? Not me--it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

And seriously, addiction is brutal and unfunny, no matter how much of a career the addict has made advocating "personal responsibility." If anything positive comes out of this--and I certainly hope it will--maybe it will be that Rush will become an advocate for helping rather than punitive solutions.

posted by Jeff | 2:15 PM |
 

Krugman hasn't hit a homer in a few weeks. Today he did.

All this fuss about the rudeness of the Bush administration's critics is an attempt to preclude serious discussion of that administration's policies. For there is no way to be both honest and polite about what has happened in these past three years.

On the fiscal front, this administration has used deceptive accounting to ram through repeated long-run tax cuts in the face of mounting deficits. And it continues to push for more tax cuts, when even the most sober observers now talk starkly about the risk to our solvency. It's impolite to say that George W. Bush is the most fiscally irresponsible president in American history, but it would be dishonest to pretend otherwise.


Krugman will get into trouble for this article because he lays claim to the truth, when in fact he's asserting opinion. In the quote above, for example, he offers as fact that the President is "the most fiscally irresponsible president in American history." Is that an objective fact? Is it empirically evident? Obviously not. But for those who will excoriate Krugman, let me offer this suggestion: read it not as a statement of objective fact, but rather the clearest example available of why liberals are so infuriated by Bush. All my lefty buddies will nod ferociously when they read this article. "Yep," they'll say, "that's exactly right."

There's a reason Krugman's articles are so resonant to the left right now.

In the months after 9/11, a shocked nation wanted to believe the best of its leader, and Mr. Bush was treated with reverence. But he abused the trust placed in him, pushing a partisan agenda that has left the nation weakened and divided. Yes, I know that's a rude thing to say. But it's also the truth.


Bush got all kinds of traction for his "moral clarity." Moral clarity, in these po-mo times, is strictly the purview of the conservatives. Liberals have eschewed it. "Moral clarity" is to them narrow-mindedness. But in the face of a Bush administration that wields its clarity as a club and distinguishes between friend and foe by their ability to toe the clear line, liberals have been rocked back on their heels. Add to that the fact that Bush's "clarity" so often appears as Rove's cynical political machinations, and we've been left gasping. Krugman has been the rare voice who spoke truth to these politics. Not big T truth--which is how conservatives interpret his articles--but the observational truth that Bush is a deceiver, that his moral clarity is whatever benefits him and his buddies. Today's article should be read as one of Krugman's clearest expressions yet of this argument, not as his claim to some big T truth.

posted by Jeff | 10:16 AM |
 

Based on the comments some of you made in the previous post, the following subject may not be regarded as universally delightful. Nevertheless, here we go: more Dennis Kucinich. On OS Politics, Laura Poyneer writes about a fundraising breakfast she attended with the candidate. Even if you think DK is the wrong presidential candidate, I think most liberals would agree it's great he's out there and on our team. He's a big-brain guy, and he's putting some things on the table no one else is. Listen to what he has to say about Iraq:

He talked about the U.S. plans to privatize Iraq's utilities and public services and sell them off to foreign companies and all the other war profiteering that's going on. The U.S. is mismanaging Iraq in the worst way. Instead of staying there to keep on devastating and plundering that country, we need to withdraw and let the U.N. take over and protect Iraq's resources so that they can be used by Iraqis. Kucinich also talked about ending the spell of fear that we are being kept in and said that by working together and speaking up we can start to turn things around and repair the damage we've done.


You won't hear much about the profiteering angle from other candidates. It's a real issue. He is dismissed for wanting to pull the troops back, but even this view isn't radical: why shouldn't the UN be running the show? It's a legitimate question. Finally, what about this issue of the President's fear mongering? Is this the way we want to live? Is this the way we have to live? Again, a legitimate question.

Then there was this:

After this, Kucinich passed by me and greeted me with "As-salaam alaykum" (the Muslim greeting; my form of dress marks me as a visible Muslim) and a nod, both of which I returned, then he continued on his way.


Do you think other candidates would have known to offer that greeting? Is it important to have a President who knows such a greeting? Maybe not. But for me, these are the things that mark him as the best candidate. He may not win, but that's a different question. An interesting article; I think you'd enjoy it.

posted by Jeff | 9:56 AM |


Thursday, October 09, 2003  

All right, what's the deal? Am I boring you guys? The comments have stopped coming. Talk to me.

posted by Jeff | 3:59 PM |
 

Just what you were hoping for: more Kucinich news. There's a pretty cool thing over at MSNBC called "Campaign Embeds." The person posting for Kucinich is Karin Caifa--and it's a lot closer to a blog than Kucinich actually gets himself. Here's a bit:

At the Democracy Rising Rally
"'Aren’t you guys in enemy territory?' I asked the Dean volunteers. 'I love Dennis Kucinich. I think he’s done a great job in the Congress,” admitted one of the folks sporting a Dean for America button. 'I love everything he says. But I don’t think he stands any chance of winning the nomination. And I think Howard Dean does stand a real chance of taking back the Democratic Party.'"


It's a bit rawer, and doesn't always flatter the candidate. But in a way, that has the effect of giving confidence. I know Kucinich isn't perfect; it's reassuring to see that it's all fairly small time.

"Downstairs from the hall, Maryland campaign coordinator Yu-Lan Tu zipped back and forth in anticipation of the congressman’s arrival. Black Entertainment Television had requested an interview with the candidate and she was going to great lengths to find a proper venue in the church. First she tried making a classroom look “presidential” with the addition of a small lamp, some faux flowers and a vase full of flags from foreign countries. She tried desperately to find an American flag to use as a backdrop but it wasn’t meant to be. Crew and correspondent were finally moved upstairs to a board room. Also a debacle was Kucinich’s arrival. The campaign staffers on site, in addition to security, were expecting the congressman to come in through a back door of the church. Despite numerous phone calls, everyone got caught off guard when the congressman merely made his way through the front door with everyone else."


Kucinich has a number of sources of info (I'm receiving several emails a day from the campaign), but this is my primary source for DK news. Bookmark it and follow along.

posted by Jeff | 1:08 PM |
 

Now, for a few words about spin and the nature of reality. Yesterday, the White House announced it was launching a PR campaign to convince voters (that's the word the Post used--not Americans, voters) that things were really going swimmingly in Iraq.

President Bush complained this week that it is hard to tell progress is being made in Iraq "when you listen to the filter" of the news media.

Bush's aides hope to elude that filter through a series of presidential interviews with local and regional news organizations, trips by Cabinet members to Iraq and hard-hitting speeches by Bush, Vice President Cheney and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice. Each of Bush's weekly radio addresses in October will be devoted to the subject, aides said.


And of course, yesterday Bill O'Reilly melted down (yet again) on NPR's "Fresh Air." (Poor guy--I'm reminded of Homer Simpson in one episode admitting he was a rage-aholic, "Ohhh, I'm addicted to rage-ahol!") Since the interview, he's been holding forth on the event like the victim of a hit-and-run. From his vanity site: "Was the National Public Radio interview fair and balanced? Was Bill treated differently than other guests? Listen for yourself and then YOU decide."

Both these incidents highlight the increasingly sharp break with reality conservatives have. It's become totally surreal. The thing is, the Bushies and O'Reilly (and just about every other conservative) seem to have completely missed the irony. They've gotten so deeply into spinning reality that they've forgotten it's not reality. Every time some harsh truth saunters onto the set like a stray gaffer, they look completely baffled. It's not even mendacity when you believe it yourself, I suppose.

But man, is it bizarre.

posted by Jeff | 10:17 AM |
 

More cause for pause on Wesley Clark. I'm not as concerned about the departure of his campaign manager Donnie Fowler, as I am the arrival of Fowler's replacement, Eli Segal. With Segal, the Clark campaign has embedded itself more strongly than ever with the Clinton team.

In addition to Mr. Segal, other former aides to Mr. Clinton have emerged in recent weeks as prominent figures within the Clark campaign. They include Ron Klain, a policy adviser; Mark Fabiani, a communications adviser; and Mickey Kantor and Bruce Lindsey, who are also regarded as part of General Clark's inner circle of counselors.


As Dems look back through the mists of time to those glory days of the last century, they evoke a gauzy, soft-light vision of Bill Clinton. I think half of the excitement in the Clark campaign comes because of his close connections to Bill. About Clinton's presidency, people remember his intelligence and skill handling the Republicans. Looking at a ferocious '04 campaign, they want the biggest guns they can find, and Clark's tanks seem to have 'em.

But Clinton is exactly where we don't want to go (I say, at the risk of getting de-linked from the enormously pro-Clinton DNC). He was stellar at getting himself elected, but his policies and effect on the rest of the party were a decidedly mixed bag. He was a polarizing figure for two reasons, his personality and moderatism--but Dems will only cop to the first. Too often, they they describe the neo-con revolt simply as a prudish reaction to Bill's infidelities. But it's far more than that.

Republicans had since Reagan made their policy positions of fiscal and personal responsibility part of a "Republican morality." It was moral to take responsibility for yourself (read: not receive government supportive services), and moral to get out of the way of the market, for it was not clouded by the suspect motives of politburo beaurocracies of the federal government. Then in came Bill, granting the argument that personal and fiscal responsibility were good for the country--but transfering the morality to Democrats. It was too much to bear that he was a libertine and a philanderer--it was like pissing on the flag.

But far worse than what it did to Republicans, this brand of politics completely unhinged the Democrats. I'll admit it: I really didn't like Clinton's policies. His fidelity to the free-market became the guiding force in his administration--core Democratic values of social and economic justice and environmental protection took a back seat. As a result, default settings on the liberal-conservative continuum took a shift right. So when George Bush came into office, previously unthinkable positions like privatizing Social Security were now on the table. The neo-cons were a step right of Clinton--but they're on the radical right in comparison with any previous Democrat in the 20th Century.

So here comes Wesley Clark, festooned with Clintonite staff. He's a former Republican with no appreciable platform arriving at the exact moment when Dems are least discriminating of their candidate--as long as the tank guns are big, let's roll! I'm bothered by it. Four more years of Bush will be abysmal, obviously. But I don't relish four more years of Clinton, either.

---------------------------------

[On a related note, check out who this article quotes regarding Clark's woes: Markos Moulitsas Zuniga. Ring a bell? No? You might know him by a different name.]

[Update: Speaking of Kos and Clark, the former has more on the latter. ]

posted by Jeff | 8:33 AM |


Wednesday, October 08, 2003  

Next Wednesday I'm off to Vermont for a wedding. It's the last weekend of the traditional "foliage season"--though this year, foresters are hopeful of an extended season. They categorize regions as "peak" or "very near peak," as if rating a comic book collection. The Vermont tourism board even has an animation approximating the exact moment of leaf color nirvana. I work with a Bostonian and I'm married to a Mainer, so I have to spend a fair amount of time each autumn listening to impromptu odes to the leaves. Needless to say, they don't find the Oregon foliage stacks up very well.

Maybe it's because we live in the region of conifers--Douglas firs, despite their beauty, don't put on an October show. Sure, there are vine maples and dogwoods, but apparently, these pale in comparison to New England's deciduous diversity. And then there's the mulch. Sad to say, but the color of the trees comes with the rain. The first showers of both fell this weekend, clogging gutters and drains. In a few weeks, the leaves will come down in clots and coat the cement in a layer of spongy pulp. The piles of leaves on lawns will be filled with slugs and sodden; definitely not the place you want to be rolling around in. The leaves themselves also seem to suffer from the slow, wet season. In some norther climes--well, Vermont, say--a cold snap seems to send a shudder of color through the leaves. Here they just kind of rot on the tree, splotchy and a bit pale.

There are trade offs. It's not that cold, for beginners (the New Englanders praise the fall but don't mention the winter). And, after the long, dry summer, the Oregon foliage goes through its own transformation. Roses have an autumn bloom; lawns turn emerald. I'm a fan of the clouds, and these settle down mistily over the city (Californians find it oppressive, but what do they know?). The transition to fall is something to relish in Oregon, but New Englanders seem to find it wanting. Soon, I'll have something to which to compare it.

Bets, anyone?

posted by Jeff | 3:48 PM |
 

Regulation, Republican-style

Also of note, the federal government is "is asking a Tulsa court to shut down R-X Depot, a company that helps consumers import cut-rate prescription drugs from Canada (link)."

Now let's think about that. Republicans, who despise regulation, wish it now because the free market's working a little too well. Americans, royally shafted by prescription drug prices, have decided to take their business elsewhere. But corporations like the enormous profits Americans deliver--and they want to protect that plump market. So now the federal government is getting involved in regulating the market--to aid in the shafting of American consumers.

posted by Jeff | 9:08 AM |
 

Amid the furor about the California recall, NPR had a couple of interesting non-Arnie-related stories. Here they describe how corruption is the rule of the day in rebuilding Iraq. Halliburton and Bechtel--who are living high on the hog thanks to rich taxpayer-funded contracts--are apparently running the reconstruction the same way Saddam ran the country, with bribes and kickbacks. They get twice as much money as a project costs and skim the cream off the top while subcontracting to Kuwaitis who sub-subcontract to Iraqis.

Let's see, corporations contracted to reconstruct Iraq before the war in a secret, non-competitive, non-bidding process who have carte blanche access to taxpayer billions and who are constrained by no appreciable oversight are taking advantage of the situation? Put you hand over your hearts, folks--that's patriotism.

posted by Jeff | 8:59 AM |
 

The election's over and now the spin to define the election's in full swing. On the radio this morning I already heard that this represents a Republican victory in California, possibly such a strong groundswell that Bush can think about winning the state.

But when I look at the election results, I see something entirely different than a Republican mandate. First, the numbers. Cali Republicans are crowing that they captured 60% of the vote. Wrong. Forty-five percent of the electorate voted not to recall. And of the 55% who did, a number cast ballots for Bustamente. Toting up the ballots for both McClintock and Schwarzenegger may produce a 60% tally, but some number of those voted not to recall--remember, 100% of the people cast a ballot for someone, whether they voted for or against the recall. Dems voted Arnie because there was only one of their party on the ballot--and he wasn't a popular Democrat who'd made it through a primary selection process, but rather the only one willing to run.

Instead, try this spin on for size: during the midst of one of the worst financial periods in state history, one of the most unpopular governors in state history was narrowly defeated by one of the most popular men on the globe. A ringing endorsement for the Republican platform, indeed.

We'll see what kind of juice this gives Republicans next year; let me be the first to predict it will not only fail to give them momentum, but further energize an enraged electorate who had to witness the partisan debacle. A few days ago I wrote, "On Wednesday, the State of California will have a less-than-perfect governor and a whole truckload of problems."

Congratulations, governor. And good luck--

posted by Jeff | 8:19 AM |


Tuesday, October 07, 2003  

I've been pretty busy today and haven't had much of a chance to blog--or read the news, for that matter. I did notice that Krugman was back on the economy today. Do you think that quieted his critics? Ah, no.

Oh, Josh also proposes the "Clinton test." Anyone with me in thinking maybe a Feingold test might be a better measure? (Or DeFazio, or Wellstone, or Kucinich....)

posted by Jeff | 4:47 PM |
 

Okay, I've about had it with the "rankings" showing Kucinich dead last. Kos and OSP have recent examples. But let's think about this for a moment. Upon what criteria do blogopundits depend when making these rankings? Dough? Weekly bon mots performance? Electability (and by that do they mean primary electability or versus George?)? Or maybe it's none--just whatever feels right at the time.

In fact, I think when people put these together they use shifting rationales. For one thing, there's really very little week-by-week variation. In the absence of a real event--a Clark (or Clinton?) entry, release of end-of-quarter money totals, a debate--it's really just horsing around. That's the only way to justify why Al Sharpton's not last. (I like Al, but he has no experience, he's a polarizing religious figure, and only regional support.) He's the only candidate who has no chance to win anything.

In the interest of hard political analysis, then, let me offer my own list. My criteria: electability. First in the primaries, then against George. Each candidate is ranked on the aggregate of these scores, which appear in parentheses next to the candidate's name (primary rank, general rank).

1) Dean (1, 1)
2) Clark (3, 3)
2) Edwards (4, 2)
4) Gephardt (2, 5)
5) Kucinich (6, 4)
6) Kerry (5, 6)
7) Braun (7, 7)
8) Lieberman (8, 8)
9) Sharpton (9, 9)


Obviously, not a single reader will agree with these rankings. Yet I've already established that I'm a nut, so I'm not going to start apologizing now. I will, however, offer rationales on the obviously bizarre choices.

Dean
All right, not so crazy, but some eyebrows may rise at the placement of Dean above Clark in the general election. Clark looks great now, but I think his political inexperience is a greater liability than people realize. Dean, on the other hand, is working through his rough spots now. He has a huge base, and no matter how often Rove goads the press into calling him "angry" and "liberal," he's neither. Rather, his straight talk will appeal after a term of lies.

Clark
Clark's weak on positions, and this will be exposed as time goes on. He came in to the primaries late enough that he avoided a lot of early scrutiny, but that means he doesn't have a huge, well-organized base, either. I think the weaknesses that look like tiny fissures now will start to gape by January. Expect him only to fade.

Edwards
I haven't talked at all about Edwards, and neither has anyone else. Yet he's quietly put together a very credible campaign. His positions are his strength, and his gentle demeanor will win him converts as the field narrows. I can see Edwards flaming out, but I can also see him going all the way. (Experience, of course, is his weakness--but Clark's candidacy may obscure this. May.)

Gephardt
Gephardt's huge political machine will help him in the primaries. Armchair pundits forget that what wins elections (and primaries) isn't magazine covers or buzz, but good old-fashioned hard work. Gephardt has an impressive base, and this will benefit him in the primaries. He's been a weak leader, though, and his wishy-washy positions would hurt his credibility against Bush. I'm scared of a Gephardt candidacy in the general election.

Kucinich
I'm aware that Kucinich is marginal now, but he, more than any candidate, can claim to be the anti-Bush, positive progressive solution. Many of the candidates have very similar platforms with just shades of distinction. Kucinich offers an alternative. If he can get traction with the "throw the bums out" crowd (Dean's base) and convince enough progressives that he can win, he's a credible candidate. He inspires people, which is something many of these candidates fail to do. That's a big plus.

Kerry
Kerry should be doing better, but he's not. He has failed to ignite interest in his campaign, and barring a miracle, I don't see him turning his USS Yorktown around in time.

Lieberman
Lieberman has all the name recognition, but absolutely no base. Worse, he has inspired active opposition among many Democrats--a unique trick among the candidates. Lieberman, along with Braun and Sharpton, will soon join Graham. He's done.

posted by Jeff | 9:07 AM |


Monday, October 06, 2003  

I'm still getting my brain around the Syria bombing and its myriad implications. The event itself is complex enough--how will it affect the relationships directly involved; how will it affect US relationships to involved nations; how will it affect the situation in Iraq; how badly will it polarize the international community. But into this, Joe Lieberman offers a move directly from the Rove playbook:

"No government can stand by and let that continue to happen," Mr Lieberman said on a television discussion programme yesterday. "Unfortunately, the Syrians have continued to refuse American demands that they break up terrorist bases and headquarters in their country.

"And what the Israelis appear to have done in attacking Syria is not unlike what we did after September 11 in attacking training camps of al-Qaida in Afghanistan."


So after playing the Israel card against Howard Dean, Lieberman now implicitly backs the President's pre-emption doctrine.

posted by Jeff | 4:48 PM |
 

All right, apparently I'm late on this, but here you go: poetry from the President.

Roses are red
Violets are blue
Oh my, lump in the bed
How I've missed you

Roses are redder
Bluer am I
Seeing you kissed by that charming French guy

The dogs and the cat, they missed you too
Barney's still mad you dropped him, he ate your shoe
The distance, my dear, has been such a barrier
Next time you want an adventure, just land on a carrier


Okay, poetry isn't exactly the right word. (Oh, and by the way, that phrase "my lump in the bed" refers to Laura. It's hard to imagine a context in which that's good.)

posted by Jeff | 4:20 PM |
 

The President's approval rating has now fallen to 50% or lower in most polls. When polled on the issues, voters far more often prefer the Democrats' positions. Iraq is a quagmire. The economy's dead on arrival. Unemployment's up, the number of insured is down. And now the White House is facing the specter of a criminal investigation. So is there any reason to think the President has a shot at re-election? Sure there is.

Say it with me: M-O-N-E-Y.

When he started running in 1999, Bush was an amiable governor who had only five years of experience as a politician. He had failed at every previous venture he'd ever attempted. He'd dodged the war, spent his youth drunk and absent, and didn't have the first clue about foreign policy. He was a candidate of whom so little was expected that he could claim "victory" in debates against Al Gore simply by not confusing France and Spain. In the end, he managed to beat a popular Vice President with decades of experience. What gave George his credibility? Yup, M-O-N-E-Y.

I could give the example of a certain governor from a tiny New England state whom six months ago everyone had dismissed as impossibly marginal. That was, until . . . well, you get the picture.

We all know that money has corrupted politics. It has skewed national elections so that those who win are those who can attract the biggest spenders. It has aced out the little guy and put the democratic process at an arm's length -- held at bay while wealth and business attend $2,000-a-plate dinners. Good Democrats are at a loss about what to do: You can't beat money without money, but getting the money means drifting from your agenda.

In 2000, 50 million people cast a vote for Al Gore. That's a lot of people; put them together and you have mustered a force of enormous wealth. My proposal: Give fifty bucks to a political campaign.

Let's say Bush shakes the wealthies' coffers to the tune of something in the neighborhood of $400 million this election season (a reasonable ballpark). In order just to match this total, only 16% of Democrats would have to pony up a U.S. Grant -- and that assumes they only give fifty, and that no other groups give a dime.

Let's face it - the only way Bush can get re-elected is to buy the votes. When people are polled about the issues, they lean heavily Democratic. But put a half-billion dollars of fear and hate on the airwaves, and pretty soon people start to shape up and vote GOP. However, if this is countered by a popular movement of the people, and if these people have pooled their resources, they become the power brokers. Politics following the people. Imagine.

Where to spend your fifty bucks? Hey, that's up to you -- this is a democracy, right? Save it and give it to the eventual nominee. Give five dollars to each Democratic candidate. Give $25 to a presidential nominee and $25 to your state senator. It doesn't matter. What matters is that we the people actually do have the power, but we have to exercise it.

This year I made my first political donation. It occured to me that there are probably a couple hundred or so Kucinich supporters out there right now. Kucinich has been marginalized because of his lack of money, not his positions (mainly because, since his underfunded campaign is marginalized, no one knows his positions; a vicious cycle). If all of us had given fifty dollars, Kucinich would be on the cover of every magazine in America.

But this isn't a pitch for Kucinich -- it's a pitch to reclaim our country. It's a pitch for you to go pull fifty bucks out of the beer fund and give it to the candidate of your choice. If we all do that, the people's candidate will emerge. Fifty bucks ain't much. But fifty million voters are. Put 'em together and you got a whole lotta Goodbye George.

[Editor's note: This is a column I published over at Open Source Politics this morning. Normally I avoid double posting like the plague, but on issues of political action, getting the word out is key.]

posted by Jeff | 11:35 AM |
 

Everybody's got an opinion on the Cali recall, and so, of course, do I. It falls along the traditional lefty/Dem lines--the recall is bad for the state, it's motivated by the worst partisan politics, yadda yadda--so I haven't bothered to weigh in. But as the performance nears its crescendo--bigger! more shocking! sit-on-th-edge-of-your-seat exciting!--I wonder if the sky really is falling.

First off, Gray Davis is a bad politician, and he's a worse Democrat. He's guilty of everything that good lefties hate about Karl Rove's soul-crushing politics. As the election nears, is anyone surprised that his whole campaign depends on how badly Arnie gets smeared? Davis is backed by big money, he doesn't seem even remotely interested in his constituents, and he's got a pretty bad record (maybe it's not as bad as conservatives allege; it ain't good, either). After five years of Gray Davis, voters have a bad taste in their mouths for Democrats. If he was doing anything for the state, maybe that's an acceptable trade-off. He's not, and his tenure has hurt Dems.

The other caution is that California's legislature is still Democratic. Arnie, despite everyone's fears to the contrary, isn't going to stride into Sacramento and start issuing edicts that raze the redwoods and give the beaches to Jerry Bruckheimer. He's an inexperienced politician who has to deal with Congress. Checks are there to balance him.

This isn't exactly an endorsement for Schwarzenegger--I'd vote "no" to recall if I had to (I've never been happier to be an Oregonian). It's just an acknowledgement that the "circus" arises not just from Californian wackiness, but genuine, and reasonable, anger. Also a notice that just because you're Democratic doesn't mean you should expect unyielding support. Davis is a Dem, but his politics are the negative, corporate-backed politics real Democrats should condemn. The patient is different, the disease is the same.

So, I'll just watch the news with fascination and hope for nothing. On Wednesday, the State of California will have a less-than-perfect governor and a whole truckload of problems. The recall was a fun party, but eventually, everyone always has to go back to work. The "inbox" is still full.

posted by Jeff | 8:29 AM |


Saturday, October 04, 2003  

If you're interested in how politics are playing out in the hinterland, you might be interested in a post I have over on the Oregon Blog.

Oregon, as you may know (if you're a Doonesbury reader, for example), is in fiscal crisis. Our budget is based on revenues collected disproportionately from income tax, and since the bubble burst, we've been at 8% unemployment or better. We saw revenues fall by 15% and services slashed. It lead to the longest and one of the most acrimonious legislative sessions in Oregon history, as our own version of neo-cons tried to hold the line on no new taxes. They had the House, but the Senate was evenly divided. What resulted was an $800 million tax hike, which has now polarized the GOP. The anti-tax folk are already out in force to put an initiative on the ballot to repeal the hike. Meanwhile, anyone who voted for it in the GOP is being demonized.

Good for the Dems? Probably not.

posted by Jeff | 10:59 AM |
 

The half-life between the "spin" and the refutation is getting ever briefer:

Though he made no assertion that Hussein had actual weapons of mass destruction, Bush read a passage from the report indicating the Iraqi leader was determined to get them. "Iraq's WMD programs spanned more than two decades, involved thousands of people, billions of dollars, and was elaborately shielded by security and deception operations that continued even beyond the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom," he said, quoting Kay's findings. "That is what the report said."

...Yesterday, Kay estimated it would have taken Iraq five to seven years to reconstitute its nuclear program. During the campaign to win support for invading Iraq, officials such as Vice President Cheney had described Iraq's nuclear program as already reconstituted. But Iraq had started to rebuild only its staff of nuclear scientists, and had undertaken limited nuclear-related experiments.


What's particularly offensive is that Bush rolls out the "spin" (or, less charitably, attempts to mislead) even while CNN is reporting that the Kay Report casts serious doubts on Bush's claims. The only thing the President can assume is that we're too stupid to notice the discrepancy.

(It makes pretty good satire, of course. The thing is, it's not satire--it's our foreign and domestic policy.)

posted by Jeff | 10:31 AM |


Friday, October 03, 2003  

Let's pause for a moment to reflect on some of the polls now swirling around. The one that's attracted the most attention is the CBS News/NY Times poll, released yesterday. The screamer findings include these. Only:

  • 41% think the Iraq invasion was worth it;

  • 40% are confident in Bush's economic decisions;

  • 41% say Bush shares their priorities;

  • 43% have a favorable opinion of Bush;

  • 37% think the country's headed in the right direction (56% describe it as being on the "wrong track"); and

  • 29% think the administration has a clear policy for Iraq.


  • These are, of course, really bad numbers for Bush. (There are some positive numbers, too, but even there, the President is on the downward side of the slope.)

    But nevermind that--you knew Bush was tanking. How about the PIPA poll Kevin Drum points us to (could be me, but it keeps crashing my computer, so I won't link to it) that says Fox watchers are poorly informed?

    The extent of Americans' misperceptions vary significantly depending on their source of news. Those who receive most of their news from Fox News are more likely than average to have misperceptions. Those who receive most of their news from NPR or PBS are less likely to have misperceptions. These variations cannot simply be explained as a result of differences in the demographic characteristics of each audience, because these variations can also be found when comparing the demographic subgroups of each audience.


    Based on three dimensions tested (whether WMD were actually found, whether there's a link between Al Qaida and Iraq, and how much the rest of the world likes the US), a whopping 80% of FoxNews watchers had one or more misperceptions. The lowest? NPR listeners, with only 23%. Interestingly consumers of all TV news sources had more misperptions (55%-80%) than those who got their news from print media (47%).

    (And what do you bet blog readers are the best-informed of all?)

    posted by Jeff | 3:00 PM |
     

    I'm torn about whether I support this kind of thing or not.

    The CBS News site was apparently hijacked by a supporter of Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich on Friday morning.

    During the hacking, the black background--including text and videos--of CBSNews.com was replaced with a blue screen that cited a CBS News poll indicating that 77 percent of all Democrats remain unfamiliar with Kucinich's candidacy. The page read: "Since we cannot expect the media to provide this information I decided to help them out." It also asked site visitors to watch an informational video highlighting the congressman's policies.


    All right, I admit it--I'm not actually that torn. Go Dennis!

    posted by Jeff | 2:56 PM |
     

    There's a caricature of the President in the New Yorker's "Talk of the Town" section this week in which it appears he's being attacked by a bat. For weeks now, the lead story in the section has addressed the President, and each has been accompanied by a caricature. This week's piece, by Elizabeth Kolbert, discusses the bizarre speech the President delivered at the UN recently. It features the usual New Yorker prose--pointed but genteel. Kolbert notes a contrast with Chirac's speech, barely needing to mention the obvious point that France was right about the situation, Bush "le cowboy," as she calls him later, wrong. Nothing approaching invective, certainly.

    The caricatures from the early pieces were fanciful, and of the President's exaggerated features were a pointy nose and eyes of childlike wonder surmounted by a furry line of eyebrow. About six months ago, the space was taken often by David Remnick, the editor, who argued gingerly for an invasion. I believe his rationale was of the Tom Friedman variety, but the articles were written with a kind of defensiveness that seemed to indicate Remnick was tired of being grilled at cocktail parties about being soft on George.

    That defensiveness has not been, of course, ameliorated by subsequent events. Now Remnick and the New Yorker are on the hook for supporting an unpopular war, but at the same time have become appalled by the craven political advantage the Bushies have attempted to seize and, now, their incompetence in dealing with it. Yet nowhere has the prose deviate from the genteel.

    Bush's eyebrows, though, went on the move. First they grew. Then they migrated. As the weeks have gone on, they resemble eyebrows less and less. It's as if the cartoonist can barely keep his pen from scratching deep, black lines across the President's face. In this week's edition, they don't even grow above the eyes, but slide down his nose in the mother of all deviant scowls. If things don't improve for the Iraqi people--and soon--Bush will soon be sporting a full-grown Osama bin Laden beard.

    (I doubt seriously that the prose will change.)

    posted by Jeff | 11:28 AM |
     

    I'm going try something a little different for Satire Friday today. Instead of doing my usual schtick, I'm going to go to an up-and-comer whom I think has a real future in satire. Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States:

    KAY CONFIRMS DECISION TO INVADE IRAQ, SAYS BUSH

    Mr. David Kay reported to the nation. I want to thank him for his good work. He is a thoughtful man. He and his team have worked under very difficult circumstances. They have done a lot of work in three months, and he reported on an interim basis.

    The report states that Saddam Hussein's regime had a clandestine network of biological laboratories, a live strain of deadly agent botulinum, sophisticated concealment efforts, and advanced design work on prohibited longer range missiles. The report summarized the regime's efforts in this way, and I quote from the report:

    "Iraq's WMD programs spanned more than two decades, involved thousands of people, billions of dollars, and was elaborately shielded by security and deception operations that continued even beyond the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom."

    That is what the report said. Specifically, Dr. Kay's team discovered what the report calls, and I quote, "dozens of WMD-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations during the inspections that began in late 2002."

    In addition to these extensive concealment efforts, Dr. Kay found systematic destruction of evidence of these illegal activities. This interim progress report is not final. Extensive work remains to be done on his biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs. But these findings already make clear that Saddam Hussein actively deceived the international community, that Saddam Hussein was in clear violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441, and that Saddam Hussein was a danger to the world.


    Later, during questioning, the President elaborated:

    Q: Mr. President, are you still confident that you'll -- that weapons of mass destruction will be found in Iraq? And how long do you think that that search will go on? Is that an open-ended search until something is found?

    THE PRESIDENT: His interim report said that Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program spanned more than two decades. That's what he said. See, he's over there under difficult circumstances and reports back. He says that the WMD program involved thousands of people, billions of dollars and was elaborately shielded by security and deception operations that continued even beyond the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom. In other words, he's saying Saddam Hussein was a threat, a serious danger.

    Q: There's a poll out in which a lot of people today are wondering whether the war was really worth the cost.

    THE PRESIDENT: I don't make decisions based upon polls. I make decisions based upon what I think is important for the security of the American people. And I'm not going to forget the lessons of 9/11, September 2001. I'm not going to forget what Mr. Kerick described, the bombing that killed innocent life. This administration will deal with gathering dangers where we find them. The interim report of Mr. Kay showed that Saddam defied 1441 and was a danger. We gave him ample time to deal with his weapons of mass destruction -- he refused. So he's no longer in power and the world is better off for it.

    I can't think of any people who think that the world would be a safe place with Saddam Hussein in power. Sometimes the American people like the decisions I make, sometimes they don't. But they need to know I'll make tough decisions based upon what I think is right, given the intelligence that I know, in order to do my job, which is secure this country, and to bring peace.

    Q: But isn't the issue that you overstated the threat in the view of critics --

    THE PRESIDENT: Bernie, you're a good man.

    [FORMER NY POLICE COMMISSIONER] BERNARD KERICK: Thank you, Mr. President.


    I mean, does this guy have a future or what? Let's give him a big, big round of applause, folks.

    posted by Jeff | 9:16 AM |


    Thursday, October 02, 2003  

    Tom Maguire will be delighted to learn he's been upgraded to "left-leaning"--and worthy of grouping with the Nation.

    Sure, the information he published in his July column about Wilson demonstrates that two senior administration officials may have broken the law. But that's been known for more than two months, and until Sunday, most of the carping was confined to the left-leaning portions of the blogosphere and to liberal publications such as The Nation.


    Though somehow I doubt the word "upgraded" will be the first one that springs to his mind.

    posted by Jeff | 5:51 PM |
     

    302 Words on Rush Limbaugh

    "What we have here is a little social concern in the N.F.L. The media has been very desirous that a black quarterback can do well - black coaches and black quarterbacks doing well. There is a little hope invested in McNabb and he got a lot of credit for the performance of this team that he didn't deserve."

    --Rush Limbaugh on ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown



    This story is getting such intense coverage that I don't need to say much about it. Leaving aside the issue of whether Limbaugh's comment was racist or not, it goes to show the effects of the conservative echo chamber. Limbaugh prides himself on his "controversial" commentary--but it's controversial to exactly no one, because the only people who listen to him are self-described "dittoheads." In the real world, journalists are exposed to people of diverse views; it occurs to them how their speech might be interpreted by different groups. Rush is so used to the response of the dittoheads that he imagined his commentary would be interpreted as sticking it to the liberal media. What didn't occur to him was that his language assumed a negative: it's true he didn't say black players and coaches aren't as good as whites, he just said the liberal media props them up. But why would it prop them up if they didn't need propping?

    What's shocking to football fans is that he would assume this negative. In the era of Mike Vick, Tony Dungy, Ty Willingham et. al., it's astonishing that anyone still holds this view. In the echo chamber, one is never compelled by the opposition to examine one's own assumptions. When Limbaugh tried to finger the "liberal media," we all saw Limbaugh's assumptions for what they were. Unfortunately, he refused the opportunity to examine his assumptions. "All this has become the tempest that it is because I must have been right about something. If I wasn't right, there wouldn't be the cacophony of outrage that has sprung up in the sportswriter community."

    Well, Rush, that'll fly with the white male core who share your view and comprise your audience--which I guess is fine. Once again, they're gonna be the only ones listening.

    posted by Jeff | 8:29 AM |
     

    Three more items for your consideration:

    1. Projected US deficit for federal fiscal year 2004: $480 billion.

    2. Amount of profit US companies have legally "deferred"--that is, sheltered from the 35% corporate tax rate: $400 billion.

    3. Tax rate Congress is planning to assess on those deferred profits in a one-time window to lure companies back: 5.25%.

    ----------------------

    Bonus Item! - Net loss to US coffers: $119 billion.

    posted by Jeff | 8:16 AM |
     

    Ah, the opacity of partisan language:

    Hazardous fuels reduction projects - That would be logging ("reduction"), wherein forests are "hazardous fuels." And you just thought they were pretty stands of trees.

    posted by Jeff | 7:57 AM |


    Wednesday, October 01, 2003  

    Yesterday I urged you all to give money to Kucinich. Today I'll do something equally dubious. You all know Ignatius Reilly, erstwhile commenter on these pages and host of Genfoods. Well, Ignatius works for a web-design company that is not long for this world and thus he wishes to set out on his own. If any of you are already in the market for a website, he does great work and is relatively cheap. Go here to see more.

    And I promise--that's it on the commercial speech.

    posted by Jeff | 12:19 PM |
     

    Novak is now mustering a defense. One might call it "minimizing a defense"--that appears to be the strategy.

    "To protect my own integrity and credibility, I would like to stress three points. First, I did not receive a planned leak. Second, the CIA never warned me that the disclosure of Wilson's wife working at the agency would endanger her or anybody else. Third, it was not much of a secret."


    On the way, he's releasing ink and trying to cloud the waters (pardon the bad, mangled metaphor). Thus, the whole thing is a "massive political assualt" on President Bush by Wilson and "the relentless Sen. Charles Schumer of New York." Meanwhile, it really wasn't secret. "It was well known around Washington that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA." And finally, Novak dissembles on the "operative" v. "analyst" question: "However, an unofficial source at the Agency says she has been an analyst, not in covert operations." (Never mind that it was Novak who used the word "operative," not Wilson, who's made the leak "his life's work.")

    I quoted from the NewsHour last night--but only half. The other part of that discussion involved Tom Rosenstiel of the Project for Excellence in Journalism. Anticipating this defense, he paints a different version of Novak's handling of the story.

    If you are going to get involved in something like this where you're bumping up against breaking the law, as a journalist you have a civil disobedience test you have to meet. What's the public good of this story? What's the -- balanced against what's the danger to the people involved publishing the story. The third part of the test is, is it necessary in telling the story to do this or is there another way to do it, do you need to divulge this person's name, in other words, to convey the information you think is of the public interest.

    This doesn't meet any one of those three tests. It's not of overriding public interest. Novak may be really just an instrument of Republican revenge here. Whatever the public good is of the story is far overwhelmed by the danger to this woman and her network of operatives. And it's gratuitous. You could have told the story without her name.


    So where does that leave Novak? In my mind, he acted unethically but not illegally. By his own admission, he wasn't the only one who knew about the story. Yet he was the only one to report it. Novak is simulateously posing as an insider and an innocent--he want access to confidential information, but he doesn't want to be held accountable for knowing what it is. All of that strikes me as a pretty serious breach of ethics.

    But is it illegal? Based on the information available, administration officials were doing there best to leak the info. Presumably, the story was getting out. Novak claims he wasn't a tool of the government, but that may be his best argument. It seems clear that a crime was committed--Plame was an undercover CIA operative, and Novak "outed" her. Crime. So the question is who's culpable. The crime here was the administration's--they wanted to get back at Wilson. This didn't come from Novak's brain--it came from someone's inside the White House.

    posted by Jeff | 9:34 AM |
     

    Three items for your consideration.

    1. The number of people without health insurance shot up this year by 2.4 million to 43.6 million.

    2. In the 2000 election cycle, Bush received at least $4.5 million from insurance and health industry lobbyists.

    3. George Bush raised between $48 and $50 million dollars in the last three months (that's over a half mil a day).

    posted by Jeff | 9:02 AM |
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