Notes on the Atrocities
Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...


Monday, January 05, 2004  

Dean is far in front in the general polls, he's ahead or tied on state polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he's even competitive in South Carolina. But then again, the earliest date any candidate can secure the nomination is March 2. Along the way, 28 states will have weighed in. If it's not decided by then, a week later four more major states may decide it.

Clearly, if the whole shebang were held at once, Dean would win. But it ain't--after the Iowa caucuses on Jan 19 there is an 8-day lag to New Hampshire, and then a another week before mini Tuesday on Feb 3. In that fortnight, media scrutiny will be intense, and depending on how things go, we might feel very differently about Dean's chances a month from now.

Dean is still, of course, in the driver's seat. He can win in two ways--a knockout punch early on, or through a grueling, shoe-leather campaign. He's already got the press to make him the front-runner; he's also got the money and organization to get his voters out.

Now, fewer than two weeks from Iowa, I'm prepared to call it a three-horse race: Dean, Clark, and Gephardt. In the following posts, I'll describe how each one can win, and what I think the Kucinich faithful should do.

posted by Jeff | 1:35 PM |
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