Notes on the Atrocities
Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...

Wednesday, January 14, 2004  

Some new polling suggests the posibility a bizarre scenario in the primaries. According to a MSNBC/Reuters poll , Kerry is tied with Gephardt for second in Iowa. Both are polling at 21%, with Dean still leading, marginally, with 24%. Meanwhile, Clark--who's not competing in Iowa--is gaining on Dean in New Hampshire, while Kerry continues to collapse there.

So imagine: Dean or Kerry win Iowa and Gephardt finishes third. He's done. Then in New Hampshire, Kerry finishes a distant third after Clark and Dean. All conventional wisdom has said if he doesn't finish second there, he's done. But what if Kerry were to win Iowa--or even finish second? Could he survive a clubbing in New Hampshire?

Conventional wisdom has also held that Clark needs Gephardt to win Iowa and slow Dean down. But what if Dean finishes second in Iowa and only just beats Clark in New Hampshire? Then Dean is slowed down, and Gephardt's out. Surely Clark would like his chances better if he were battling Dean and Kerry, rather than Dean and Gephardt, particularly if Dean came out of New Hampshire wounded. A road to victory for Clark?

Fascinating stuff.

posted by Jeff | 10:29 AM |
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