Notes on the Atrocities
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Friday, February 27, 2004  

Oscar Odds

Since many of you won't be around a computer in the next couple days, I offer you the latest Oscar odds.* If this inspires you to send me your picks for the digital Golden Neo, so much the better. (Full list of nominations here.)

Best Picture
Return of the King is favored going away. In fact, you can barely make any money on it. After that, Mystic River and Lost in Translation run a tight second. Mystic River is running 7- or 8-to-1 and Lost a little longer, 10- or 12-to-1. Master and Commander's coming in long at 20-to-1, and Seabiscuit the movie is longer than Seabiscuit the horse: 33- to 40-to-1. (Wouldn't it be funny if it won?)

Lead Actor
This is the closest category. Bill Murray and Sean Penn are the favorites, and they're running neck and neck (Penn has the statistical lead). A solid third is Johnny Depp, who gets you 5-to-1. After that, Ben Kingsley and Jude Law are pretty long odds (20- to 40-to-1). The Academy almost never goes comedy, but they mostly hate Sean Penn. A tough choice.

Lead Actress
This is Charlize's to lose, according to oddsmakers. A buck'll get you a buck ten. Diane Keaton and Naomi Watts are going somewhere between 6- and 9-to-1. After that Keisha Castle-Hughes is longer (12-to-1) and Samantha Morton is in Seabiscuit territory. Hey, it's nice to be nominated.

Supporting Actor
This is an interesting race. Tim Robbins is the favorite, but just barely. Next come Benicio Del Toro and Alec Baldwin, also at good odds. Not super far behind are Ken Watanabe and Djimon Hounsou. This might be an upset waiting to happen. Dare I call it for Ken? (I don't.)

Supporting Actress
Renee Zellweger is consensus fave here. Next are Shohreh Aghdashloo and Patricia Clarkson, both running about 7-to-1 (though one source had Aghdashloo as low as 3-to-1). Holly Hunter and Marcia Gay Harden are also just about tied, running in the 15-to-1 range. This category often surprises, so perhaps that explains the oddsmaker who sees Shohreh Aghdashloo as a good bet.

Peter Jackson's getting the same kind of odds as his movie--that is, really, really good. Sofia's getting a little run, coming a respectable 7-to-1 or so. Peter Weir is a bit back, followed by Clint, who's running at about 15-to-1 (which is odd, because Mystic River is playing second fiddle in the Picture race). Finally, the long shot is Fernando Meirelles for the un-nominated City of God. Welcome to Hollywood, Fernando!
*Odds captured by surfing the seemier side of the net. Not verifiable; I absolutely do not stand by them. For amusement purposes only. Etc. etc.

posted by Jeff | 1:51 PM |
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