Notes on the Atrocities
Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...


Sunday, March 07, 2004  

Despite the screamer headline ("54 percent in Oregon oppose same-sex marriage, poll says"), the Oregonian today reports hopeful findings from a poll of attitudes on gay marriage.

In fact, only 34% are "opposed to any legal recognition of same-sex couples regardless of what form it takes or what it is called." Another third are in favor of gay marriage. The final third "oppose same sex-marriage but support the idea of civil unions between same-sex couples."

In other words, a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage is likely to be opposed by something on the order of 60% of Oregonians, depending on the scope of the change.

On the other hand, there's this: although Kerry's ahead of Bush by 5% (45%-40%), Ralph Nader is polling at 5% and 11% are undecided. In the absence of a Nader candidacy, that 5% goes to Kerry. Because of Kerry's middle road position on gay marriage, this could become a single-ssue litmus test for voters who now have the Nader out. It is almost certain to drive up his number (however marginally), which could be significant in a close race. The real group to watch are the 11%. (Though I wonder what percent of likely voters is actually undecided. Eleven percent seems awfully high given the stark difference between the candidates. The Oregonian provides no info on the study's methodology.)

posted by Jeff | 11:26 AM |
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