Notes on the Atrocities
Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...

Monday, April 26, 2004  

Mark Shields hazards a prediction:

Here is the secret decoder ring of 2004 presidential politics. Recall that the 2000 race between Democrat Al Gore and George W. Bush was about as close to a dead-heat finish as possible.

Here are questions you simply ask yourself between now and Election Day: 1) How many people do you know or meet who voted for Al Gore in 2000 and who now say they intend to switch and vote for George W. Bush in 2004, and 2) How many people do you know or meet who voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and now intend not to vote for him in 2004?

From my own limited and admittedly unrepresentative samplings, the second group -- with six months still to go in this campaign -- is larger than the first group.

Astute stats studiers will note that this prediction assumes that roughly the same group will vote in 2004. To add another layer, try this: of those who did not vote in 2000 but who feel sufficiently motivated to hoist their keisters off the barcoloungers in 2004, how many will vote for Bush? Surely 99% will be voting because of him, the dullish Kerry seeming unlikely to motive the masses, but will they vote for or against him?

posted by Jeff | 4:35 PM |
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