Notes on the Atrocities
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Thursday, April 29, 2004  

Referendum on Lies

Has a President ever been elected whom the majority of the public thought lied about protecting them and going to war? If it seems unlikely, this is bad news for the Bush camp:

In his statements about the war in Iraq, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying?

20% - Telling the entire truth
76% - Hiding something or mostly lying

Members of the Bush administration have said that the decision to go to war with Iraq was made in March 2003, just before the war began. Do you think the decision to go to war with Iraq was made in March 2003, or was it made before that?

23% - March 2003
68% - Before that

When it comes to what they knew prior to September 11th, 2001, about possible terrorist attacks against the United States, do you think members of the Bush Administration are telling the truth, are mostly telling the truth but hiding something, or are they mostly lying?

24% - Telling the entire truth
72% - Hiding something or mostly lying

Those findings are from a NY Times/CBS Poll (only available on .pdf). Other noteworthy findings:

As a result of the US's military action against Iraq, do you think the threat of terrorism against the United States has increased, decreased, or stayed the same? (Percentages in parentheses are results from last October.)

41% - Increased (26%)
18% - Decreased (21%)
39% - Stayed the same (51%)

Do you think Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the September 11th, 2001 attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon?
39% - Yes
51% - No
10% - DK

Is your view of [Kerry and Bush] favorable, unfavorable, undecided or haven't you heard enough about [the candidate] to form an opinion?

Kerry (Bush)
27% (38%*) - Favorable
33% (43%) - Unfavorable
26% (18%) - Undecided
14% (1%) - Haven't heard enough
*lowest since June 2001

The candidates were within the margin of error for people's preferences (46% Kerry, 44% Bush), but 26% said it "was too early to say for sure."

Country headed in the right direction - 36%; wrong direction - 55%.

In fact, almost all the findings show Bush in freefall. He's still above 50% on his handling of terrorism, but he's around 40% or below on Iraq, "foreign policy," and the economy. Finally, perhaps the finding that says the most about this election is this one. When asked to respond to how strongly they favored their candidate, this is what people said:

55% - Strongly favor
35% - Like with reservations
8% - Dislike others

32% - Strongly favor
28% - Like with reservations
38% - Dislike others

People are going to cast their ballots based on the President, not Kerry, so long as Kerry doesn't give them some seriously compelling reason not to vote for him. Which was, I guess, exactly the calculation folks in Iowa made when they gritted their teeth, blew off the favored Dean, and gave Kerry the win.

posted by Jeff | 12:23 PM |
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