Notes on the Atrocities
Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...

Tuesday, April 06, 2004  

This seems about right:

Public views of President Bush and Democratic rival John Kerry have changed little in the past month despite millions of dollars of television campaign ads, according to a survey released Monday.

The University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey compared attitudes about the candidates in the first half of March with those in the second half and found that changes in their favorable ratings were "statistically insignificant" in the 18 battleground states where the most ads have run.

The survey in those states found that 41 percent viewed Kerry favorably in the first part of the month, compared to 39 percent during the last half, while Bush's favorability was 49 percent in early March and 48 percent in late March.


1. The study gauged attitudes in March. March. You think it's possible that the malleable population--those with insufficient data about the candidates who are actually susceptible to TV ads--are more concerned about American Idol than an election seven months from now?

2. Unlike 2000, that malleable population is far smaller. For one thing, there's an incumbant. Presumably, people inspired enough to rise from the Barcolounger to go to the voting booths will have come across some news of the President in the preceding 4 years. It's a referendum on that performance, so. Also, whereas Bush managed to hide his conservatism behind the "compassionate" leaf in the last election--and thus appear moderate--fair to say that he's now suitably exposed. Candidate confusion in 2004 is unlikely.

More money will be spent this year, but likely to less effect.

posted by Jeff | 1:46 PM |
Blogroll and Links