Notes on the Atrocities
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Saturday, July 31, 2004  

Bouncing

Newsweek has the first post-convention poll and it reflects--surprise--a small bounce. Now who would have guessed that?

Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush (49 percent to 42 percent) in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader (3 percent), according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Kerry's acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried after Kerry's Thursday night speech gave the Democrat a ten-point lead over Bush. Three weeks ago, Kerry’s lead was three points.

Kerry’s four-point "bounce" is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll.

Now Ed Gillespie, having argued for two weeks that the Dems would get a 10-point bounce, will claim victory. The convention a catastrophic failure. Kerry's campaign in tatters. The question is--will the press bite? Stay tuned.

[Update. According to a USA Today/Gallup Poll, Kerry actually lost ground, falling four points behind Bush. It's the first time in Gallup's 32-year history that a candidate got a reverse bounce. Polling was done Friday and Saturday and is continuing today.

The Rasmussen tracking poll puts Kerry up by four--after he'd been tracking about 2 points ahead for the past week. In other words, a tiny bounce--and possibly nothing more than an outlier.]


posted by Jeff | 5:13 PM |
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