Notes on the Atrocities Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...
Tuesday, July 27, 2004
There Will Be No Bounce and Other Thoughts
Ed Gillespie is telling anyone who will listen that the Johns should enjoy an 8-12 point bounce after the convention. Generous of him, no?
Ah ... no.
In fact, Kerry will be lucky to get much more than a few points. As we know, every time pollsters ask voters how certain they are about their candidate, 80% say they're absolute in their support. According to a USA Today poll out today, in three battleground states only about 15% of Bush voters would even entertain the idea of voting for Kerry (even fewer Kerry voters will consider Bush). So where is Ed going to get his 12 points? No, Generous Ed is actually trying to make whatever bounce does result look like like a dud.
(There won't be much of a bump after the RNC convention either, but Terry McAuliffe will probably repay Ed's generosity nevertheless.)
Yesterday I argued that the Dems should seize and exploit the foreign-policy advantage. I'll go ahead and assume that Bill, Hill, Al, and Jimmy all read this blog and took my advice. (Andrew Sullivan has been arguing the same thing, but surely they're not reading his blog.)
A last observation. Are you starting to feel optimistic? There's something in that New England air (no, I don't mean the black flies)--the mood issuing from Boston seems extremely positive. The media, the bloggers, hell, even the righties all seem to sense we're getting a look at the winning team. Partly this is the convention effect--all attention is on the Dems, so of course that feels positive. But compared to the embalmed feeling of the 2000 election, this has a totally different vibe. The Republicans keep saying they're the optimistic party, but who's telling people to screw themselves? For once it feels like the Dems are all on the same page and really having a kick-ass time being there. They're serving a higher purpose--outing Dubya--and it really shows in the mood.
I think that's the ground rumbling beneath our feet. Big changes ahead.