Notes on the Atrocities
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Sunday, February 29, 2004  

Grand Jeffy

In the four years I've been doing the Jeffies, the Grand Jeffy has always been a struggle. Not so this year. Although all four candidates were excellent films, one was a monumental accomplishment. It stood so far above the others in terms of complexity and scope that it was not hard to select. I'm speaking, of course, of School of Rock. Oh wait, I mean Return of the King.

If I have any reluctance (and I do), it's because my desire to advocate for films that should get more attention. For instance, Lost in Translation is the kind of film I enjoy most--an intelligent, understated meditation on human behavior. I cherish small films like this because they're rarely done, and when they're done, few are as good as Lost.

Absent LOTR, I would have chosen American Splendor, which isn't just a rare kind of film, it's unique. Rare is the American movie that celebrates the little guy, the unheralded scrapper, but Splendor goes a step beyond that, literally fusing documentary, biography, and art into one amazing film. American Splendor deserves far more attention that it is getting.

Goodbye Lenin is a dark horse in my Petit Jeffy pool. I included it because it was so wholly un-American. It actually had the temerity to suggest that capitalism isn't all goodness and light; communism not all demonic evil. It approached politics in a way that no American movie ever could--gently, glancingly, directly. If for no other reason than to fly a middle finger at Hollywood's ignorance, I might have selected it (Lenin didn't even get a nod for best foreign picture, despite winning a wheelbarrow of prizes in Europe).

But in the end, Return of the King was a singular achievement. Although many movies were good this year, if you asked directors to reflect honestly on Peter Jackson's achievement, I think they'd tell you he deserves to win. Jackson is unlikely ever to mount such an amazing epic, with such spectacular results, ever again. Sofia, Peter Wier, Clint--none of them could honestly say that about their own pictures. Rarely does a movie project like Lord of the Kings come along. It deserves to win all the awards.

And it deserves--and gets--the Grand Jeffy.

posted by Jeff | 4:23 PM |
 

The Jeffies, 2004

All right, here we go. Based on recent movie-viewing, we have some late-breaking changes. You'll notice that among the nominees for Grand Jeffy is the unreviewed Goodbye Lenin. It is unreviewed because it just got added. I realized only just now that it was actually released in 2003 and was snubbed by the Oscar committe. Not the Jeffies--here at HQ, we've decided to recognize it. As a result of Lenin's inclusion, there are a couple of changes in the acting list, too.

All right, cue the drumroll...

Petit Jeffy (Grand Jeffy nominees)
American Splendor (Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, dir.)
Goodbye Lenin (Wolfgang Becker, dir.)
Lost in Translation (Sofia Coppola, dir.)
Return of the King (Peter Jackson, dir.)

And the Jeffy goes to ... a film that will be named later. ;-)

Best Actress
Maria Bello, The Cooler
Hope Davis, American Splendor
Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation
Katrin Sass, Goodbye Lenin
Charlize Theron, Monster

And the Jeffy goes to ... Charlize Theron

Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dirty Pretty Things
Paul Giamatti, American Splendor
Johnny Hallyday, Man on the Train
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Jean Rochefort, Man on the Train

And the Jeffy goes to ... Bill Murray

Best Supporting Actress
Miranda Otto, Return of the King
Archie Panjabi, Bend it Like Beckham
Christina Ricci, Monster
Maria Simon, Goodbye Lenin

And the Jeffy goes to ... Miranda Otto

Best Supporting Actor
Sean Astin, The Return of the King
Zlatko Buric, Dirty Pretty Things
John Robinson, Elephant
Andy Serkis, The Return of the King
Khleo Thomas, Holes

And the Jeffy goes to ... Sean Astin

Best Screenplay
Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, American Splendor
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Claude Klotz, Man on the Train
Steven Knight, Dirty Pretty Things
Wolfgang Becker, Hendrik Handloegten, Bernd Lichtenberg, Achim von Borries, Goodbye Lenin

And the Jeffy goes to ... Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini

Best Director
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Jackson, Return of the King
Nathaniel Kahn, My Architect
Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, American Splendor
Gus Van Sant, Elephant

And the Jeffy goes to ... Peter Jackson

Best Foreign Picture
Dirty Pretty Things, Stephen Frears
Man on the Train, Petrice Leconte
Goodbye Lenin, Wolfgang Becker

And the Jeffy goes to ... Goodbye Lenin

Special Jury Award
School of Rock - You hope it's as good as it looks, but it's better.

Big Stinky (Worst film of the year)
Paycheck (John Woo, dir) I should note that Gigli was sufficiently horrifying to scare me off. No doubt it was worse, but I don't want to be presumptuous.

posted by Jeff | 2:01 PM |
 

Movie Week

Here's the last of the Grand Jeffy nominees.

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Directed by Peter Jackson
201 minutes (theatrical release)

It's hard to review a film everyone's seen, particularly one that's really just the third part of a longer narrative. Those who love it love it dearly, and those who are put off by the whole phenomenon aren't going to be swayed by the thoughts of an obscure blogger. So rather than review the film you already know so well, I'll mention just two elements of the larger project and why they so impressed me.

The first element--now widely accepted even by people who don't care for the spectacle--is how Jackson successfully filmed this ur-fantasy tale. Fantasy seems easy. It is the most visual written form, the most obviously cinematic. And yet LOTR is arguably the only artistically successful fantasy film ever made. How did Jackson do it?

He started by locating the essence of the story: large things are accomplished by a group effort, and even the most insignificant-appearing creatures are critical to the success of the whole. (It is not, as generally reported, a tale of good versus evil.) Working from the central point, he found the several other major themes and looked at how Tolkien animated them in his own story. Then Jackson bravely altered the narrative so that it would function successfully as film but retain the essence and themes of the original. What results is a perfectly realized version of the written work, but one that's not slavish in its interpretation.

It was particularly brave because the trilogy has become the canonical fantasy text. Deviations were bound to be despised, but filming the thing without the animating spirit of Tolkien's vision would have produced failure. So Jackson left out Tom Bombadil and Galadriel's gifts and he ended the first movie in a different place than the first book. Gutsy stuff and exactly the right thing to do.

The second thing I admire about the trilogy is how Jackson handled he task of size. This thing was an epic born, and nothing could change that fact. But there are pretentious epics and fatuous epics and sterile epics; on the other hand there are V-8 stories filmed with four-cylinder effects. A lot of movies get the "epic" moniker, but few epics get to be called great.

Jackson hit the sweet spot. Part of making special effects work is in having a big enough vision to include all the gadgetry. One of the main reasons I loved the first Star Wars is because Lucas' world is dirty. Sure, it's a sci-fi, but that doesn't mean there's no dust.

Jackson's vision included that level of detail. He used plenty of computer effects, but he also spent the effort to make vast sets, which always look more realistic. When he could, he used visual compositions to inspire awe, not technology. Perhaps the most stunning visual in the series happens in the last movie, when we see a series of warning fires spread from peak to peak. David Lean's most spectacular shots from Lawrence of Arabia were of immense desert painted by golden sunlight. Jackson is wise to this, and doesn't overplay his hand. The special effects are in service of the story--the acting, characters, and tension are what propel the action. The epic grandeur come later, to elevate these. (Hollywood generally has it backwards, with effects first, and story and character second--if at all.)

What Jackson has accomplished almost seems old hat to us already. Yet I am certain it will stand as the epic of a generation. All adventure movies will automatically have to deal with LOTR's presence. I hope people are still watching Lost in Translation and American Splendor in 25 years. I know they'll be watching Return of the King.

posted by Jeff | 10:59 AM |


Saturday, February 28, 2004  

Movie Week

As I build toward the release of the Jeffies, which is of course the height of indulgence, I will now offer a similar list that is similarly indulgent. Like Rob Gordon in High Fidelity, I am fascinated by lists. It will not shock you to learn that I've kept an informal list of my favorite all-time films.

What's interesting is how our vision of art changes over the course of our lives. Movies are an elemental art form, hitting us right in the emotions. Sometimes we see movies we're convinced are classics of the form; five years later we see them and wonder what was so hot. My first list was a top-five, and only two are films I still consider great. Then, of course, there's the issue of what qualifies as "great" anyway. No one's going to argue that Citizen Kane isn't an amazing accomplishment, but for reasons of personal preference or emphasis, many folks won't have it in their all-time faves.

So here's my idiosyncratic version. Rather than a top-ten, I have a top six and a second eight. Add to that another four I really like, but which are just a notch below. And finally, recent movies that I thought were stunning, but which I've cellared to see how they age.

Definitely All-Time Faves
Rififi
The Third Man
Stranger Than Paradise
400 Blows
Lawrence of Arabia
Crimes and Misdemeanors


Could be All-Time Faves on the Right Day
High Noon
Sunset Blvd.
The Conversation
The Full Monty
Breathless (1960)
Wings of Desire
The Fisher King
Taxi Driver


Probably Not, But Darn Close
On the Waterfront
Double Indemnity
One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
Casablanca


Aging for Possible Upgrade
Wonderland
Ghost Dog: Way of the Samurai
Royal Tenenbaums
Pulp Fiction
Smoke
Big Night
The Commitments


What are yours?

posted by Jeff | 1:12 PM |


Friday, February 27, 2004  

Oscar Odds

Since many of you won't be around a computer in the next couple days, I offer you the latest Oscar odds.* If this inspires you to send me your picks for the digital Golden Neo, so much the better. (Full list of nominations here.)

Best Picture
Return of the King is favored going away. In fact, you can barely make any money on it. After that, Mystic River and Lost in Translation run a tight second. Mystic River is running 7- or 8-to-1 and Lost a little longer, 10- or 12-to-1. Master and Commander's coming in long at 20-to-1, and Seabiscuit the movie is longer than Seabiscuit the horse: 33- to 40-to-1. (Wouldn't it be funny if it won?)

Lead Actor
This is the closest category. Bill Murray and Sean Penn are the favorites, and they're running neck and neck (Penn has the statistical lead). A solid third is Johnny Depp, who gets you 5-to-1. After that, Ben Kingsley and Jude Law are pretty long odds (20- to 40-to-1). The Academy almost never goes comedy, but they mostly hate Sean Penn. A tough choice.

Lead Actress
This is Charlize's to lose, according to oddsmakers. A buck'll get you a buck ten. Diane Keaton and Naomi Watts are going somewhere between 6- and 9-to-1. After that Keisha Castle-Hughes is longer (12-to-1) and Samantha Morton is in Seabiscuit territory. Hey, it's nice to be nominated.

Supporting Actor
This is an interesting race. Tim Robbins is the favorite, but just barely. Next come Benicio Del Toro and Alec Baldwin, also at good odds. Not super far behind are Ken Watanabe and Djimon Hounsou. This might be an upset waiting to happen. Dare I call it for Ken? (I don't.)

Supporting Actress
Renee Zellweger is consensus fave here. Next are Shohreh Aghdashloo and Patricia Clarkson, both running about 7-to-1 (though one source had Aghdashloo as low as 3-to-1). Holly Hunter and Marcia Gay Harden are also just about tied, running in the 15-to-1 range. This category often surprises, so perhaps that explains the oddsmaker who sees Shohreh Aghdashloo as a good bet.

Director
Peter Jackson's getting the same kind of odds as his movie--that is, really, really good. Sofia's getting a little run, coming a respectable 7-to-1 or so. Peter Weir is a bit back, followed by Clint, who's running at about 15-to-1 (which is odd, because Mystic River is playing second fiddle in the Picture race). Finally, the long shot is Fernando Meirelles for the un-nominated City of God. Welcome to Hollywood, Fernando!
_________________________
*Odds captured by surfing the seemier side of the net. Not verifiable; I absolutely do not stand by them. For amusement purposes only. Etc. etc.

posted by Jeff | 1:51 PM |
 

The Rise of Docs

Digital video was supposed to revolutionize film. Cameras were cheap enough for indie filmmakers and images were digital--they could be dumped onto a computer for easy editing. It hasn't really worked out that way, though (at least not yet). I've experienced first hand part of the reason--filmmaking is hard. A few friends and I tried to make a film based on a script I had written. But the difficulties (too numerous to list) of the filmmaking process itself brought us down. When you don't have access to sets and props and can't pay your actors, things get rocky fast.

Where DV has caused a revolution is in documentaries. In the past few years, documentaries have not only been making it to metroplexes, they've been making decent money. And last year, Michael Moore redefined "marketability" when Bowling for Columbine made $21 million. This year Spellbound made $5.7 mil, Capturing the Friedmans made $3.1 million, and Fog of War is off to a strong start with $1.6 million.

DV may not have made fiction filmmaking much more accessible, but it has opened up documentaries. The quality standards for the form are much lower, so it becomes more a question of having a good idea about a story. And here filmmakers are really taking advantage, as the wealth of new documentaries shows.

It's an interesting inverse to the creative laxity of Hollywood. There the technical side of things couldn't be better--films look and sound great and there's literally no limit to what kind of image can now appear on screen. But on the creative side, the story side, things couldn't be worse. Hollywood seems to have lost all taste for risk, and so long as by-the-numbers scripts are available, they'll put their talents to making those tedious things look great. Fifty million dollars and 47 explosions later and it's just so boring.

Documentaries are starting to satisfy filmgoers' thirst for a good story. This year, in Spellbound, we had one of the most exciting stories filmed (though it was shot on regular film). I was literally on the edge of my seat as the kids tried to work through words I'd never even heard before. At the Portland Film Festival, I saw My Architect, which wove personal history, biography, and art apprecation together in a thoroughly original way. I can't imagine movies like Dogtown and Z Boys coming from moribund Hollywood--it's way too far off the by-the-numbers thinking that guides greenlighting.

The most creative stories are still getting made by indie filmmakers. These days, they just happen to be documentaries, not fiction.

posted by Jeff | 12:19 PM |
 

Movie Week

The Passion of the Christ is not a 2003 Jeffy nominee, nor will it be a 2004 candidate. But I watched it last night and it's movie week, so here's a review.

The Passion of the Christ
Directed by Mel Gibson
120 minutes

The Passion of the Christ is neither a work of art nor entertainment. It's theology--a liturgy Mel Gibson has offered viewers to participate in with eyes and tears. The usual requirements of the form--character, themes, narrative arc--are missing. In their place are cinematic techniques in service of a religious myth (in the largest sense) the viewer must already know. The movie is an exercise in symbol, and to comprehend it, the viewer must fill in the gaps with personal knowledge. The actors, for example, don't have personalities to create; they're stand-ins for viewer-provided meaning. Because the whole project is religious and not cinematic, the images are ritualistic, exaggerated for theologic emphasis. Christ doesn't just bleed, he rains. The Roman guards who beat Christ aren't just putting in a day at the office, they're sinister madmen, cackling like schoolyard bullies (David Denby called them "Felliniesque"). For anyone unfamiliar with the narrative, the film would be an incomprehensible jumble of ultraviolence.

But Mel wasn't aiming for art, so I'm not going to penalize him for not having made it. Instead, he's offered a soteriological sermon (a word this religious studies major doesn't get to use nearly enough). So what should we make of his interpretation of salvation?

As everyone now knows, the scenes of The Passion are the middle part of a larger narrative--the 12 hours before the crucifixion until just moments after Christ's death. (There are 30 seconds at the end where Christ is shown, stigmata and all, risen in his crypt. It is a perfunctory reminder of how the story ends.) The larger narrative from which The Passion is extracted includes the last supper and extends to the resurrection, where Christian theology generally puts the emphasis (after all, the getting-crucified-by-the-Romans part wasn't particularly noteworthy). In that version, the symbolic meanings of the acts are more important than the acts themselves. With each betrayal and lash Christ receives, we understand that everyone--no matter how heinous or innocuous the transgression--is redeemable. The crucifixion doesn't emphasize Christ's suffering, but the redemption his act affords all sinners.

That's not Mel's reading. By selecting the brutality, Gibson strips the story of symbol. Instead of emphasizing the redemption, it becomes a lesson of endurance. He underscores this point by including Satan in the film. At particularly brutal moments, a slight, hollow-eyed Satan appears in the crowd, trying to break Christ's will. There's more than just a little Mad Max in Gibson's Christ; during the flogging by the Roman guards, Christ heroically stands up after the caning to provoke a more severe scourging that literally leaves him flayed, ribs poking through his shredded skin. Gibson doesn't use realism to depict the brutality, he exaggerates it. The amount of blood Christ sheds is inhuman--gallons of the stuff pours off him. It's ritualistic and intentional, and late in the film, Gibson does tie it back to the blood-and-body speech from the last supper.

Some people have claimed that there isn't enough of Christ's teachings in the film. But for Gibson, the teachings--which are the heart of the redemption of his resurrection--are secondary. It's the suffering itself which is redemptive. Caiphas taunts Christ more than once about his claim that he will destroy the temple and rebuild it in three days. Sure enough, after his death, the temple is rent in half. Christ, the action hero, has endured the pain and metes out the penalty. But like the rest of the narrative, Gibson misses the point--it's not the destruction of the temple that Christ wished people to understand, it was the rebuilding. The resurrection.

posted by Jeff | 8:28 AM |


Thursday, February 26, 2004  

A review for Passion of the Christ is going to take some thinking--for which I have not the energy at the moment. Tomorrow.

posted by Jeff | 6:46 PM |
 

I'm off to see The Passion. Review to follow.

posted by Jeff | 2:50 PM |
 

Movie Week

Lost in Translation is another movie I've considered for the coveted Grand Jeffy. Will it beat American Splendor? What's the rest of the competition? Ah, these answers and more as Movie Week continues.

Lost in Translation
Directed by Sofia Coppola
105 minutes

After the credits run, the opening shots of the film show a chaotic downtown Tokyo from the window of a car. The images and sounds all come at the viewer in a wall--an unfiltered field of sound and light. Moments later, Bill Murray gets out of his car and is greeted by a vast number of Japanese handlers--he's a movie star there to shoot a Suntory Whiskey ad. Now things seem too close, too invasive, but at the same time too sterile after the swarm of the streets. Welcome to Lost in Translation, a movie that somehow evokes the dislocation of jet lag and culture shock.

The dislocation continues until the final two or three scenes of the movie. Coppola manages it by alternating between long shots that present scenes as incomprehensible jumbles and close ups that make you want to draw further back. If you've traveled half-way around the world, you'll recognize this feeling--it's the sense that if you could just focus your eyes properly, you could comprehend what they behold.

Into this context we are introduced to the two central characters, Bill Murray's Bob Harris, a fading movie star, and Scarlett Johansson's Charlotte, a recent college grad in her early 20s. They are privately suffering their own dislocation. Hers is typical of smart kids who have spent 15 years mastering an environment that no longer exists. His is typical of anyone who's spent 25 years living in the world she's just entered. One is scared of the future, the other that there is only past.

At its heart, the film is a romance, though the characters remain chaste throughout. It is the chastity that makes the film so delicious--where almost every other movie since 1975 would have thrown the two in bed by the end of act one, the social circumstance of their age keep them apart. So throughout the movie, they rest in that moment of possibility, when anything is possible.

Although the attraction is partly about age--Charlotte gives Bob vitality, Bob gives Charlotte confidence--there's a deeper attraction of two kindred spirits. This is where the movie shifts focus; although both characters feel desolation after their first encounters with Japan, this forms a point of connection they share throughout the film. In interactions with an American movie star and lounge singer, and with Charlotte's photographer husband, we see that these are two characters somewhat isolated from their own culture as well.

The film concludes where it began, with Bob in a car, headed back to the airport. This time, though, it's daylight. As the camera watches Tokyo pass by, the images seem composed, comprehensible. Buildings that were overwhelming in the first scene now look merely interesting. Feeling what Bob has just experienced (you'll have to see the movie for that), the buildings look now like old friends. Coppola completes the experience: having strained and suffered to make sense of a country, we suddenly see our own lives on the horizion and look back on this strange, scary landscape with nostalgia.

posted by Jeff | 8:11 AM |


Wednesday, February 25, 2004  

Oscar Trivia*

Most acting nominations: Meryl Streep (13), Jack Nicholson (12)
Most wins: Katherine Hepburn (4)
Most nominations without a win: Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole (7)
Youngest acting nominee: Justin Henry (8)
Youngest acting winner: Tatum O'Neal (10)
Youngest lead actor winner: Adrien Brody (29)
Oldest winner: Jessica Tandy (80)

Winningest picture: Titanic (1997), Ben-Hur (11)
Most nominated picture: Titanic (1997), All About Eve (14)
Most nominated non-winning pictures: The Turning Point, The Color Purple (11)

Most nominated director: William Wyler (12)
Most wins: John Ford (4)
Only women nominees for director: Lina Wertmuller, Jane Campion, Sofia Coppola
Directors who have won: Ron Howard, Mel Gibson, Robert Zemeckis, Kevin Costner, John G. Aviildsen,
Directors who have never won: Alfred Hitchcock, Hal Ashby, Akira Kurosawa, Martin Scorsese, Orson Welles
__________________________
*All stats taken from 75 Years of the Oscar, Robert Osborne (2003), except the director stuff at the end, which I dug around to find.

posted by Jeff | 5:31 PM |
 

Movie Week

Lead Actors

The two performances that have critics buzzing this year couldn't be more different. Bill Murray undertates himself into another zone, while Charlize Theron does her best DeNiro-as-Jake-LaMotta impression. But these weren't the only great performances this year. Many, as you'll see from my list, aren't well-known, either.

So, since I yammered too much on supporting actors, I'll do my best to be economic here. Without further ado, here are my selections for best leads by a woman:

Maria Bello, The Cooler
Hope Davis, American Splendor
Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation
Charlize Theron, Monster

I really wanted to like The Cooler. I like the people in it, I liked the idea of the film, and I liked the way first-time director Wayne Kramer shot the film. Unfortunately, it failed on almost every level. Even Maria Bello's role as a hard-luck casino waitress was deeply flawed. Despite the lack of cohesion from a writing level, Bello sold the role. The heart-of-gold role is usually played either vapidly or with world-weary wisdom. Bello gave it much more--her hard-luck waitress was playing out a losing hand, but she was still naive enough to believe it might change. Her sexiness wasn't played as object, but rather part of her personality. She made me believe that her character could have loved William H. Macy.

Hope Davis had the unenviable role of playing a human who happened to not only be alive, but featured in the very same film. What more can you say than she really became Joyce Brabner? Wonderful.

It's hard to imagine Lost in Translation without Scarlett Johansson. Maria Bello had to make us believe she could love an older man, but Johansson had to show us infatuation. She did it so organically that it almost seemed like not acting. Alas, how often have we seen the other side of that coin?

Charlize. Suffice it to say that the critics are divided. Ebert called it "one of the greatest performances in the history of the cinema." But the Post's Manohla Dargis was not amused: "Phony choppers and a startling resemblance to Jon Voight aren't enough to transform Theron into Wuornos, and I didn't buy either the performance or the character for a second." I don't know that I'd go as far as Ebert, but almost. After I saw the movie, I wrote that it put me in an altered state of consciousness that persisted for a good 24 hours. The movie itself was flawed, but Theron's performance was so good that I related to her as a person. I felt for her so keenly--not for the actress, but the character. I tend to shy away from the classic "big" performances that often win awards. Not this time. It was amazing.

And the Jeffy goes to: Charlize Theron.

For the men, the winner wasn't as clear. There were five performances I enjoyed, and I could make a serious argument for each as the best performance of the year. The nominations:

Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dirty Pretty Things
Johnny Hallyday, Man on the Train
Paul Giamatti, American Splendor
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Jean Rochefort, Man on the Train

In a movie almost no one saw (Man on the Train), Johnny Hallyday and Jean Rochefort give two delightful performances. I knew when I started the nominations that it was going to either have to be both or neither, because they were both so good. It's a story of odd couples where the couple are neither really so odd nor, despite appearances, so different. Hallyday plays a noirish thief, Rochefort a provincial school teacher. Their paths cross, and the lives of the other is a balm to each. The movie is itself a balm to anyone with blockbuster-itis.

Chiwetel Ejiofor also gives a very human performance in the similarly un-Hollywood film Dirty Pretty Things. Ejiofor plays an illegal Nigerian immigrant who drives a cab in London, but is in fact a doctor. He becomes the moral center of a movie that swims with immoral sharks. (Review here.) It's a generous character and a generous performance.

I reviewed Giamatti earlier this week, which leaves us with Bill Murray. When a guy like Murray finally gets a nomination, you hope he wins it for a life's work. That's how I feel about him now--except he also deserves to win. For a number of years now, Murray has been playing roles where his humor is a very modest side note. It's a part of his personality, in service to something a little sad or tired. A strange irony that after becoming famous for his comedic roles and his wild SNL lifestyle, latter-day Murray is all in a minor key. When she wrote Lost in Translation, Sofia Coppola had Murray in mind for the role, and it brings together all the depth he has had in recent films. It's the ultimate Bill Murray movie.

And the Jeffy goes to: Bill Murray.

posted by Jeff | 12:54 PM |
 

Movie Week

Supporting Actors

Of all the elements of film, acting seems the hardest to pin down. Everyone loves a great scenery-chewing performance like De Niro used to give in the 70s. On the outer edges of this kind of performance is overacting, where histrionics replace human emotion. With performances like these, drawing that line is a tricky business. This year Charlize Theron gave such a performance--some critics loved it but others felt it was over the line (more on that performance later today).

The other kind of performance is the subtle, understated variety, which isn't often rewarded. Bill Murray, who has been giving these performances for more than a decade, was finally rewarded by his first Oscar nomination for Lost in Translation (lesson: if you switch genres, expect the Academy to be slow to notice).

My favorite performances this year included a little bit of everything. I'll discuss them in the usual Academy format, but with Jeffy nominees.

Best Supporting Actor
So in the male category, there were some key perfomances I didn't see: Benicio del Toro in 21 Grams, Albert Finney in Big Fish, and Peter Sarsgaard in Shattered Glass. A couple other performances were singled out by critics for performances I didn't particularly like: Tim Robbins in Mystic River (I felt he was misdirected; like everyone else in the movie, he gave an emotional performance that was at odds with the two-dimensional, remote character Eastwood tried to sketch); Alec Baldwin in The Cooler (good acting, bad character). So, the official Jeffy list:

Sean Astin in The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Zlatko Buric in Dirty Pretty Things
John Robinson in Elephant
Andy Serkis The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Khleo Thomas in Holes

Neither Khleo Thomas, who played the wonderful character "Zero" Zaroni in Holes nor Zlatko Buric, as the morally neutral Ivan in Dirty Pretty Things has gotten any attention. They should: they give perfect supporting performances, adding depth and realism to a movie that doesn't seem possible without their vivid roles. Selecting anyone from Elephant is risky, because it's an ensemble piece. To the extent that John (who played the blond kid also named John in the movie) is our window into the movie, he could be called the central figure. Yet as the observer, he does play a supporting role in the narrative. Again, I can't imagine the movie without him.

Finally, the two performances from Lord of the Rings. For a movie who has such an embarrassment of riches, it's hard to argue that it gets slighted critically, and yet it does. The acting is perhaps--perhaps--the trilogy's greatest strength. These characters are far from cookie-cutter placeholders for the action. Jackson also did an interesting thing in the three movies by selecting one character who was a metaphor for the action. In the first film, it was Boromir, who demonstrated the power of the ring. In the second, Aragorn, who placed the narrative in dramatic and historic context. And in the final film, it was Sam Gamgee, loyal servant of the film's nominal hero, Frodo. If the entire trilogy is a meditation on the importance of humble contribution, it's Sam, not Frodo, who is the true hero. I felt that in the books, and I felt it again in the movies. Sean Astin held the movie together with his heroic humility. Andy Serkis chewed the scenery, but Astin carried the dramatic arc.

And the Jeffy goes to: Sean Astin.

Best Supporting Actress
In this category, the performances garnering the most attention were in the kind of film I avoided this year--studio-produced Oscar bait. Shohreh Aghdashloo in House Of Sand And Fog, Renee Zellweger in Cold Mountain, Holly Hunter in Thirteen Sad to say, but this was a very lean year for great supporting roles for women. I missed a few key performances as well: Patricia Clarkson Pieces of April and Miranda Richardson in Spider. The official Jeffy list:


Miranda Otto in Return of the King
Archie Panjabi in Bend it Like Beckham
Christina Ricci in Monster

I'm well aware of the lameness of this list. I might have tried to pad it a bit, just so I wouldn't look lame. But the truth is, this is really represents the performances I thought were worthy of mention (Maria Bello, who gave a great performance in The Cooler, was sometimes nominated in this category. I don't see how--she was clearly in the lead.)

Archie Panjabi plays the mother of Jess Bharma in Bend it Like Beckham. She had a small role, but really knocked it out of the park (if you're in the mood for a feel-good pick-me-up, this is a good movie). Christina Ricci gave an understated performance in Monster, one that has been derided and praised. I side with those who praise--this is the story of Aileen Wuornos; Ricci's character is there to help explain Wuornos's mindset. Ricci did a great job with the role. Finally, in another small performance, Miranda Otto played Eowyn, the daughter of Theoden. She'll always be remembered for her retort to the Nasgul who taunts her during battle: "You fool. No man can kill me." In reply, she pulled off her helmet, and declared "I am no man" before killing him. But actually, I liked her subtle performance off the battlefield, where she had to juggle showing longing for Aragorn and also pride and strength as a warrior and leader.

And the Jeffy goes to: Miranda Otto.

posted by Jeff | 9:20 AM |
 

I've got an early deadline this morning; by mid morning I should have a post up on the great performances of the year.

(Not to let politics intrude, but I must give a shout out to Dennis Kucinich, who finished a strong second in Hawaii yesterday. Go DK, go!)

posted by Jeff | 7:11 AM |


Tuesday, February 24, 2004  

The Golden Neo

For the past five or six years I and a small group of friends have held a competition to select the most Oscar winners. The prize has varied but is mostly symbolic. The last couple years it was a devil duckie, which was a symbolic step up. Ah, but this year we have upped the ante even more. With an old tennis trophy, a Neo action figure, and a can of gold spray paint, we are in the process of fashioning the ultimate award: the Golden Neo (picture available upon completion).

I don't know if anyone would have interest in matching wits on this competition. I can't offer you the actual Golden Neo, but I'm happy to award a digital version and a heap of praise. If I get enough folks joining in, I'll even consider an actual award (a DVD, say). Here's how it works. You get yourself a ballot (this one, for example) and select the winners. Cut and paste that into an email and send it to me (emmasblog(at)yahoo(dot)com) before the telecast begins. Scoring as follows: 3 points for the "majors," 1 point for the "minors." Majors consist of acting awards, picture, director, writing awards, foreign picture, and feature documentary.

posted by Jeff | 12:49 PM |
 



One of the more intriguing films of the year was Gus Van Sant's Elephant. The French loved it: not only did it win Cannes, but was nominated for a Cesar and won the French Syndicate of Cinema Critics award for foreign film. At home, it garnered a sum total of three critical nominations from the myriad awards-givers: two nominations for cinematography (won one), and a nomination for best director (Gus lost).

On Metacritic, a website that gives aggregate scores on films based on reviews from 30 news sources, Elephant rated a respectable 67. But that score conceals the vast range of opinion reviewers had. Ratings ranged by 90 points, from 10 to 100--the broadest span I've seen. Eleven critics ranked it in their top ten--the same number as critically acclaimed Spellbound. What's especially fascinating is that reviewers loved and hated the same elements.

Ebert: "It simply looks at the day as it unfolds, and that is a brave and radical act; it refuses to supply reasons and assign cures, so that we can close the case and move on."

Christian Science Monitor (David Sterrit): "Van Sant gives no pat or easy answers. Instead he makes us squirm, worry, and think. That's why Elephant is a must-see movie."

Baltimore Sun (Michael Sragow): "The parable sums up the futility of finding the truth in any one man's observations. But the film itself is an exercise in frustration. Van Sant is too determined to show the impossibility of gleaning anything useful from a day in the life of high-school kids before they kill or are slaughtered."

New York Daily News (Jami Bernard): "A movie that takes impartiality to new places artistically. The film is infuriating."

Some great films are universally loved and acclaimed--The Godfather, for example. Elephant is in a second category of art: the controversial. In many ways, making a controversial film is harder than making a great film--finding that ribbon of gray area and exploiting it effectively is a tall order. Subtle changes in emphasis can turn a controversial film bad pretty easily.

I personally found Elephant revelatory. It's a meditation on human behavior, starting at the place that murderers possess the same emotional range as non-murderers. (Plot thumbnail: Elephant explores the lives of high schoolers on a day shattered by Columbine-like shootings; the two kids who commit the murders are in the ensemble, but their roles are not emphasized.) It explicitly avoids issuing a moral position, because Van Sant recognized that the moment a moral judgment is made, exploration and understanding stop.

Watching the film unfold, seeing the naivete in everyone's experience, it's hard to regard the shootings as a simple, dismissible act of evil or madness. In particular, watching what happens to the kids as they progress along the shooting spree, as madness comes to them, it's not even possible to regard them solely as perpetrators.

It's not surprising that some people loved it and others hated it: as a viewer, that's an uncomfortable place to find yourself.

posted by Jeff | 8:22 AM |
 

Movie Week

The Return of the King is considered the front-runner to win a best-picture Oscar (three months ago, Howard Dean was a front-runner, too); if it does, it will be the first part-three movie to win (Godfather 2 was the only winning sequel). I dug around and discovered a few other facts.

Production
3 million feet of film shot during production;
20,602 background actors cast;
15,000 costumes made by the wardrobe department;
2,400 behind-the-scenes crew members at height of production;
114 total speaking roles;
7 total years of development for all three movies.

Oscars
The Lord of the Rings trilogy became the most nominated film series in Academy Award history with 30 nominations, surpassing both the Godfather trilogy (28) and the Star Wars franchise (21).

Box Office
The trilogy was made at a cost of roughly $190 million, or $63 million each. How was the return on the investment? Check out these numbers (which don't include DVD sales):

Domestic
6.* The Fellowship of the Ring - $361 million (as of 2/18/04)
8. The Two Towers - $342 million
13. The Return of the King - $315 million

International
2. The Fellowship of the Ring - $986 million (as of 2/18/04)
4. The Two Towers - $926 million
7. The Return of the King - $871 million
Total international box: $2.79 billion
__________________
*place all-time

Random Trivia
Peter Jackson appeared in cameo as one of the mercenaries on the boats headed for Minas Tirtith.

posted by Jeff | 7:10 AM |


Monday, February 23, 2004  

There was a fairly decent group of good movies this year, but only four I actually considered as candidates for the Grand Jeffy. The first candidate arrived in the fall, when I saw American Splendor, the most original American film I've seen since Memento. Here's a review that originally appeared at Open Source Politics.

American Splendor
Directed by Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini
101 minutes

Harvey Pekar is an choleric everyman who has spent his life shambling the gray and grim streets of Cleveland, hands deep in his pockets, shoulders hunched against the unbearable heaviness of being a clerk. He is overweight, depressive, unfulfilled--in short, your average working stiff.

Or is he?

Pekar is the author of a comic book series called "American Splendor," which features the character of Harvey Pekar. In the film American Splendor by Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, Harvey Pekar is both the author and the character and is portrayed in all his hunched, grumbling glory by Paul Giamatti.

In both the comic books and film, Pekar is morose, self-absorbed, unkempt, unpalatable…and very funny. Nobody should be blamed for thinking they've got this guy figured out by now. But intruding on the film's narrative is the narrator himself, the real Pekar, who is mild, affable, and engaging.

Within a few minutes, you have a dawning realization that Giamatti is playing a fictitious doppelganger, the character from a comic book. Or is the real Pekar, whom we see chatting with the filmmakers, actually the doppelganger--with Giamatti, the actor, representing accurately what the real person cannot?

The sense of blurred lines worsens when, half way through the movie, the narrative includes Pekar's famous run on Letterman. As Hope Davis, playing his wife Joyce, watches from the green room, the directors show real footage of the real Harvey Pekar. But lest you think it's the real Harvey, the fake Joyce gets irritated that he's playing the Pekar "character." And round and round it goes, who the "real" Pekar is nobody knows.

But while the directors chose to knit together documentary and biopic, their point isn't an intellectual "nature of truth" thesis. They're much more interested in exploring the extraordinary life of this ordinary guy. What plays out is something like a Woody Allen movie--if Woody made films about working class guys in Cleveland. Giamatti plays the character with a constant scowl, something like Woody's constant nervousness. He works in a monochromatic file room, lives in a dingy apartment, and shuffles along gray streets. Somehow, when set against the scowl, this saturation of grimness starts to seem hysterically funny.

James Urbaniak plays Robert Crumb, the famous alt-comic hero who illustrated the first "American Splendor" comic book. Many of the people who see this film will have seen Terry Zwigoff's Crumb; they'll find Urbaniak's Crumb substantially different from Zwigoff's. Here he's a cool, distant, strangely powerful figure. After the film's turning point, where Pekar's grocery-store epiphany about old Jewish women leads to his first "American Splendor" script, we find him sitting nervously awaiting Crumb's assessment. Crumb reads the panels, illustrated provisionally by stick figures, while Pekar writhes. Finally he issues judgment: "This is really good. Can I illustrate it?"

Hope Davis plays Pekar's wife, Joyce Brabner. She's identifiable, but disappears into the role. When the real Joyce appears with the real Harvey, one marvels at how fully Davis has mastered her wide-eyed flatness. Another character named Toby Radloff seems like a fake until we see the real Toby; then we realize Judah Friedlander is channeling him. It's uncanny. (The one character who is miscast is the guy who plays David Letterman--but who cares? We know Dave.)

But the movie is about Harvey, and we never leave his orbit. The narrative moves along following something like a plot, but this is incidental. It's not a film in which we expect anything particularly good to happen; we're really hoping nothing bad does. What we're really interested in, though, is how Harvey will handle whatever does happen. Enjoy this sense of momentary exploration--that's the joy of this movie.

posted by Jeff | 5:26 PM |
 

Movie Week

If the Oscar nominees for best picture are good for anything, it's as metaphors for where Hollywood finds itself in 2004. The movie biz is pretty healthy--indies now regularly play on the big screen, foreign films are making a comback, and in the best trend in years, documentaries are now screening regularly in suburban metroplexes. But for Hollywood, things are bad.

Until recently, Hollywood had developed a groove. Big studios made big, sugary action films--and big money. Smaller fry in the studio world made the Oscar pictures. Indies had little influence, and only occasionally moved into either the Oscar field or money race.

A couple years ago, things started to go awry. Although Hollywood had its fingers in Lord of the Rings, it could hardly be called a "Hollywood" picture in the old Universal Studios sense. The studios were busily turning out really crappy blockbusters (The Hulk, Planet of the Apes), which no one wanted to see.

Erosion happened on the Oscar-movie side of the slate, too. Their versions of art became increasingly bloated, ham-handed affairs that neither made money nor won awards. (Cold Mountain is a great example.)

If you look down the list of the Best Picture nominees, you can see Hollywood's troubles.

Foreign Blockbusters
While Hollywood timidly greenlighted TV show remakes, the blockbuster people went to see was Lord of the Rings, which has now shattered all earnings records and probably grossed more than Bangladesh last year.

And although Master and Commander didn't make the kind of bank Hollywood likes to see, it was the kind of movie Hollywood used to make. The surprising selection of M&C seems to indicate a longing among voters for that Errol Flynn yesteryear when the industry knew how to make a compelling adventure movie.

Indie Cred
I don't know how much to make of Lost in Translation. It was arguably the best film of 2004, but that hardly matters to Oscar. I don't know whether it mainly reflects how bereft Hollywood has become that it couldn scrounge up another Seabiscuit-like replacement, or if the industry has finally turned a radical corner toward quality films. In any case, the very presence of Lost in Translation is remarkable. That a funny little not-quite-comedy about culture shock and dislocation would get the nod says something about Hollywood. It may be a year or two before we know what it means.

Chestnuts
The last little ground Hollywood seems to have carved out for itself is a style of film that seems like a throwback to the "winning" pictures of the 40s and 50s. I'm going to toss both Mystic River and Seabiscuit into this category, even though they're fairly different films. The subject of Seabiscuit is a bygone era, and the movie feels like a piece of it. It's a Horatio Alger story for the new millennium. A nation savaged by doubt and fear is inspired by the story not because we see ourselves like plucky Seabiscuit, but because we like to remind ourselves that once we were Seabiscuit.

Mystic River, for all its darkness, is also a familiar movie. It has the scenery-eating performances that recall On the Waterfront. The lesson here is the Alger shadow--a vision into the seemy darkness we must overcome.

I just watched three movies at the Portland International Film Fest this weekend. I saw a movie filmed in the Central African forest, a magnificent German movie called Goodbye Lenin, and a series of shorts. Seeing the creativity and vitality of films being produced across the globe, I have really been stunned by how dead American studio films seem by comparison. They are stylized no less than Bollywood's, nor are they any more adventuresome. Indies like Lost in Translation now boast all the production values of a big-budget picture, and contain vitality you almost never see coming from Hollywood.

2004 may be remembered as the year the tide turned and Hollywood started making good pictures again. Or, if Lost in Translation wins best picture, it might be remembered as the beginning of the end for the industry.

posted by Jeff | 8:32 AM |
 

MOVIE WEEK

This week I'm taking a break from politics. In a reprise to last year's partly successful week about literature, I'll only be writing about movies for the next seven days (unless the world intrudes in some unavoidable way). I know many of you are wonks and political junkies, so I hope you enjoy the break as much as I will.

Like many Americans, I love the movies. Every week, my partner Sally and I leave work a little early on Friday afternoon and catch the late matinee--usually on the film's premiere. I fall into a low category of film buff--the only genre I don't like is horror. So whether it's School of Rock or American Splendor, I can get equally excited. And every year, even though I end up feeling gross and disappointed, I anticipate the Oscars with unhealthy excitment.

For the last few years I've prepared a list of my fave movies called the Jeffies (last year I called them the Goldies on this blog). Part of this week will be spent discussing some of my choices for finest films, performances, writing, directing, and so on. I'll post reviews of the films in contention for the Grand Jeffy--that coveted best pic award all Hollywood's buzzing about. I'll also write about some of the themes and trends in film, the state of the art, and some fun stuff like trivia.

I invite folks to participate in the discussion. Film appreciation is idiosyncratic, so more voices will help dilute my own tastes. If anyone is dying to offer an alternative view or a review of a fave film from the past year, I'll even be happy to post guest blogs. We've got the rest of the year to talk politics, so I hope this is an enjoyable diversion for one week.

posted by Jeff | 8:02 AM |


Sunday, February 22, 2004  

You already knew this, but now it's official:

Consumer advocate Ralph Nader told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday he will run again for the presidency, declaring that Washington has become “corporate occupied territory” and arguing there is too little difference between the Democratic and Republican parties.

My take, which is far from unique, is that this won't make a whit of difference. Without even the auspices of the Green Party, poor Ralph will be running alone and against most of his most ardent supporter's wishes. The worst thing about this news is that Nader's legacy, which is rich and wonderful, may be forever marked by his quixotic political campaigns.

Not this year, Ralph.

posted by Jeff | 8:10 AM |


Saturday, February 21, 2004  

This is a little random, but as I wean myself from hard politics in anticipation of MOVIE WEEK on Monday (mark your calendars), let me draw your attention to the latest incursion on the written word: the SAT test. Yes, that venerable, derided, friend-to-the-white-and-wealthy test now includes a written component. Seems like a good idea on the face of it, right? Had I been offered a written component back in 1985, it might have mitigated my abysmal 480 math score.

Except that it wouldn't.

The test, as described in the Atlantic's current issue, is essentially a mathmatic equation with words standing in for the numbers. The resulting essay, unsurprisingly, will generally contain poor writing.

We and our colleagues at The Princeton Review have spent many years training students to take the SAT II, and have carefully analyzed the College Board's essay-grading criteria. To receive a high score a student should write a long essay of three or more paragraphs, with each paragraph containing topic and concluding sentences and at least one sentence that includes the words "for example." Whenever possible the student should use polysyllabic words where shorter, clearer words would suffice. The SAT essay will not be a place to take rhetorical chances. Flair will win no points; the highest-scoring essays will be earnest, long-winded, and predictable.

On a personal note, I knew of the SAT's failings even before seeing this article, because a twin version appears on the grad school version, the GRE, which my significant other (Sally) took late last year. She didn't do as well as she would have hoped. This isn't surprising, because she's a fantastic writer. Her prose is original, clear, and accessible--just what the College Board now instructs its graders to punish.

The article in the Atlantic is called "Would Shakespeare Get Into Swarthmore?" I find it ironic, because that's the school Sally went to, after a nearly flawless performance on a 1980s version of the SAT.

posted by Jeff | 11:26 AM |
 

The Post today has trenchent observations on the recess appointment of William Pryor.

THE NOMINATION of Alabama Attorney General William H. Pryor Jr. to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit was, from the beginning, a provocation on the part of the Bush administration. Yesterday Mr. Bush made that provocation all the more provocative by installing Mr. Pryor -- who has been held up by a Democratic filibuster -- by recess appointment. Mr. Pryor is the second judge the president has placed on the bench using this procedure, which allows the president to bypass Senate confirmation for appointments made on a temporary basis. The result is that Mr. Pryor will be a judge for now, but he will leave office unless both Mr. Bush and a filibuster-proof Republican Senate majority win election this year. In other words, his prospects of longer-term service on the bench will be bound up with the electoral fate of the Republican Party -- exactly the sort of political dependency from which judges are supposed to be insulated.

posted by Jeff | 8:35 AM |


Friday, February 20, 2004  

Another Friday, another news dump. Mister Trustworthy, our President, does all his dirty work late Friday to ensure two cooling-off days before he gets hammered. Today's atrocity? Read all about it:

(AP) -- Bypassing angry Senate Democrats, President Bush installed Alabama Attorney General William Pryor as a U.S. appeals court judge on Friday in his second "recess appointment" of a controversial nominee in five weeks.

Pryor's federal appointment has been vigorously opposed by Democratic senators who have objected to his past comments and writings on abortion and homosexuality.

I can draw your attention to two locations should you wish to research the delightful Judge Pryor. People for the American Way have worked up a nice rap sheet, and at the Dossiers, you can get the full scope of the "activist judges" the President so hypocritically derides. Naturally, TalkLeft is also on the case. "Here's a nice summary by PFAW of some of his worst offenses:

Pryor is a leading architect of the recent states rights or federalism movement to limit the authority of Congress to enact laws protecting individual and other rights. He personally has been involved in key Supreme Court cases that, by narrow 5-4 majorities, have restricted the ability of Congress to protect Americans rights against discrimination and injury based on disability, race, and age. Worse, he has urged the Court to go even further than it has in the direction of restricting congressional authority. Just last month, for example, the Court, in an opinion by Chief Justice Rehnquist, rejected Pryors argument that the states should be immune from lawsuits for damages brought by state employees for violation of the federal Family and Medical Leave Act.

"Pryor believes that it is constitutional to imprison gay men and lesbians for having sex in the privacy of their own homes, and has filed a brief urging the Supreme Court to uphold Texas Homosexual Conduct law, which criminalizes such conduct. Pryor believes that singling out gay men and lesbians in this manner does not violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. In the same brief, Pryor equated for purposes of legal analysis sex between two adults of the same gender with 'activities like prostitution, adultery, necrophilia, bestiality, possession of child pornography, and even incest and pedophilia.'"

You think Bush is trying to send a message to Massachusetts and San Francisco (and the entire Democratic electorate)? Things are getting ugly...

posted by Jeff | 3:27 PM |
 

Via Atrios we get this news from the New York Times.

Is cooking a hamburger patty and inserting the meat, lettuce and ketchup inside a bun a manufacturing job, like assembling automobiles?

That question is posed in the new Economic Report of the President, a thick annual compendium of observations and statistics on the health of the United States economy.

The latest edition, sent to Congress last week, questions whether fast-food restaurants should continue to be counted as part of the service sector or should be reclassified as manufacturers.

Sound familiar? Listen:

The Labor Department today announced a change in the way jobs will be classified. The Department called it an effort to reflect changes in the workforce over the past twenty years. The last time jobs were reclassified was in 1978, before computing altered the workforce.

The largest change will affect the manufacturing sector. Under the new rules, restaurant employees are being recategorized as industrial workers. "Most restaurant workers today are emplyed in the fast food industry," explained Roland Grimes, economic undersecretary. "These employees work on an assembly line and manufacture a product, pretty much just like Henry Ford's old factory workers, so we felt this made a lot of sense."

Employment figures released today show that industrial and manufacturing jobs were up 347% over last month. President Bush praised the figures and hailed the increase as further evidence that his tax cuts were spurring job growth.

I wrote that two weeks ago as part of my regular Friday satire series. Is that freakin' CREEPY or what?

posted by Jeff | 10:41 AM |
 

John Kerry is not a Rat Bastard

As we inch ever closer to having a nominee, the notion is dawning on some lefties that Dennis Kucinich may not actually win this thing. Thus the delightful window where anything was possible has turned into the inevitability of the finite qualities of Kerry and Edwards. (In case anyone wants a prediction about the winner, I'll confidently take John.) And so comments such as these appear:

"Kerry strikes me as just another side of the same old, tired coin. He's a war criminal, he's in tight with corporations, he's pro-war..."

"Edwards is supposedly trying to get Kucinich and Sharpton barred from the next debate. If that turns out to be true, the asshole just lost my vote even if he does get the nomination."

After a pretty nice honeymoon with the voters, one of the Johns is about to enter the phase of shock and awe--a fair amount of which will be friendly fire. Great.

John Kerry is no revolutionary. He's been around for 20 years, which means he's had to vote for or against a whole raft of legislation. And you know what? Politics doesn't work cleanly. Legislation gets bundled--you throw a little pork on top of a good bill in order to buy off enough senators to get the thing passed. That's how politics works. Blaming Kerry for being a politician is naive and short-sighted. He hasn't been the kind of politician who will only vote for the few pork-free bills that came down the pike. His calculus is the same as most politicians: to get you must give.

Truth: John Kerry has one of the most liberal voting records in the senate. Truth: he has a nearly perfect record on the environment. Truth: the red herring of gay marriage aside, Kerry has a very strong record on civil rights.

Since the beginning I was only lukewarm about Kerry. He's a droner, he's boring, and he's firmly enmeshed with big money (though how he could become a US Senator from Massachusetts without courting corporate interests is beyond me). But he's a good guy, an honorable man, oh, and incidentally a liberal. If Kerry does become the nominee, he will be the most liberal Democrat we've had in 12 years.

I'm tired of folks on the left going scorched-earth on anyone with the temerity not to be their candidate. John Kerry isn't Dennis Kucinich. But calling him a war criminal or saying he's indistinguishable from Bush is just ignorant. He's a decent guy and I'll be proud to vote for him.

posted by Jeff | 8:04 AM |
 

Scott McClellan's grilling this week inspired today's post. Happy Friday satire--

Gaggle

Question: Scott, the last couple days you've been backing off the President's jobs forecast. Before that it was the poor budget numbers. Of course, there's the WMD question, which the President still calls an "intelligence failure."

Scott McClellan: Roger, before I--

Q: I haven't asked my question, yet, Scott.

Scott McClellan: Go ahead.

Q: The question is this: is the President really as incompetent as he seems, or is he a liar?

Scott McClellan: What?

Q: All right, another example. Last year Larry Lindsay estimated the war would end up costing $200 billion and the White House made a big public show about how wildly inaccurate that was. They even went so far as to fire him.* Then the President asked for expenditures totaling $150 billion for the year, with estimates of at least $50 billion this year. So what was it? Did the President really have no clue about what the war might cost, or was he just misleading the public?

Scott McClellan: Thanks for the question, Roger. You bring up an important point that hasn't been made recently. The President of the United States made the world a safer place last year by removing a violent dictator and a dangerous terrorist. Your question highlights exactly how important it is to keep our eye on the ball and not get caught up in details.

The President said he would address the threat of terror and he has. The President said he would bring democracy to Iraq and he has. His focus has always been the safety of the American people, and it will remain there.

Q: Did you hear what I just asked?

Scott McClellan: I heard you.

Q: Would you mind answering the question, then? We get the press releases, but I'd like to know how the White House plans to spin all these disjunctures with reality. So what is it, incompetence or lies?

Scott McClellan: Oh, come on, Roger, I'm not going to answer that.

Q: Because it's rude? Would it help if I reframed the question?

Scott McClellan: What are you asking, Roger?

Q: Let's stick with the cost of the war. Why did the White House deny the war would cost $200 billion?

Scott McClellan: You know as well as I do that budgetary estimates are notoriously hard to make. The President wasn't willing to commit to a figure.

Q: Well, while we're on budgets, why did the President omit Iraq expenditures in this year's budget? Why was the number used to justify the Medicare legislation lowballed by a third? The list is as long as my arm, Scott, you pick the example,--

Scott McClellan: I'll be happy to go through them with you--

Q: --but my point is the President's credibility. Why should anyone believe anything he says?

Scott McClellan: Nobody bats a thousand, Roger. He's as accurate as anyone.

Q: So you're going with incompetence?

Scott McClellan: This line of questioning is out of order. How dare you question the President. He's got more character than you'll ever have, you little punk. He tells you what you need to know. The American people know that and trust it.

Q: You mean liar, then? But in a good way. I just want to get it right.

Scott McClellan: That's enough. Yeah, Angela?

Q: Scott, we're still wondering when the President is going to account for the months in 1973 when the National Guard has no records of his presence...

________________
*That, at least, is true.

posted by Jeff | 6:52 AM |


Thursday, February 19, 2004  

"I think it is what it is."

Scott McClellan, from today's beating (a gaggle not yet online, but available here.)

Well, there's no arguing with that.

posted by Jeff | 4:39 PM |
 

On Saturday, I saw a documentary called My Architect at the Portland International Film Fest (which is quietly becoming one of the better film fests in the country). It is a personal account of the architect Louis Kahn, made by his son Nathaniel. It's a great film, and I give it my highest recommendation, should the opportunity to see it in your city present itself. But this isn't a film review.

Rather, it's an inspiration that results from having seen the film: give the Iraqi Governing Council $200 million to build a parliamentary building.


The arc of the documentary concludes in Dhaka, Bangladesh, where Kahn created the plans for the massive capitol complex. It is a fantastically over-the-top building that took the same length of time to construct as the Taj Mahal--23 years. For the poorest country in the world, one composed mostly of rice paddies and swamps, such a building seems like an unconsciounable waste. Yet it is exactly the opposite. For Bangladeshis shown in the film, it is a symbol for what they want their country to be--for its aspirations, not its reality.

As Iraq progresses toward democracy, it will need independent, home-grown symbols of its own. Despite George Bush's pre-war calculations, democracy won't be imposed on Iraq. It will either come from Iraqis or it will fail. Having a new, post-Saddam symbol of what they are striving for would be a wonderful aid in developing that democracy. I know, it ain't gonna happen. I can dream...

posted by Jeff | 2:25 PM |
 

Although two or three of the candidates might quibble, possibly the biggest loser in the primaries so far is organized labor. Wes Clark won more states this year than labor's two darlings, Dean and Gephardt. John Edwards, friend of the workin' man, is quitely winning the hearts of workers who feel disquieted by the wealth and corporate connections of the John Kerry. And Kerry, meanwhile, has been picking up the lion's share of labor's subsequent re-endorsements--which probably dooms him to a surprising upset.

Used to be that labor endorsements meant something--at least in Democratic primaries. What's up?

Post continues at The American Street...

posted by Jeff | 12:01 PM |
 

Our governement has been taken over by crooks. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the new millennium's Boss Tweed:

[House Majority Leader Tom] DeLay has made plans to use a nonprofit, tax-exempt charitable foundation created by him and operated by his daughter and several of his associates to fund political events at the Republican National Convention over Labor Day weekend. DeLay weakened House ethics rules last year, ending bans on free trips to and lodging at charity events where lawmakers mingle with lobbyists and businesspeople. His latest maneuver could free both political parties to use captive charitable organizations as vehicles for off-the-books influence peddling.

The brochure for DeLay's charity, Celebrations for Children Inc., openly solicits funds to be used to pay for a luxury hospitality suite for big donors, a yacht cruise, VIP tickets to Broadway shows, a golf tournament and a late-night party. For $500,000, a donor gets a private dinner before and after the convention with DeLay and colleagues as well as high-level staffers. These are functions for which political soft money was used during the 2000 conventions.

posted by Jeff | 7:28 AM |


Wednesday, February 18, 2004  

Everyone's piling on the President for backing off his jobs promise. I won't let that stop me from joining the fray.

Recall last year about this time that Bush was rolling out the third of his kickbacks, err, tax cuts. For the first time, economists started to get skittish, so he rebranded them "Jobs and Economic Growth." Here, see for yourself, it's right on the official webpage.

The President will not be satisfied until every American looking for work has found a job. (Bold theirs.)

President Bush, ladies and gentlemen: dissatisfied.

Meanwhile, Scott McClellan was getting his daily beating by the press. Tired of goring him on the President's military record, they went after jobs today. Some of the exchange:

Q Can you answer the specific question, though? Was this report -- was the prediction of this many jobs, 2.6 million jobs, vetted prior to publication by the entire economic team?

MR. McCLELLAN: It's an annual report, David. It goes through the usual -- it goes through the usual --

Q That's not the question. Was it or was it not vetted by the entire economic team?

MR. McCLELLAN: It's an annual report. It goes through the usual --

Q So you don't know, or it was, or it wasn't?

[Here there's a lot of badgering before McClellan finally answers the question.]

MR. McCLELLAN: -- it goes through the normal -- it goes through the normal vetting process.

Q So the answer is, yes. I'm not done yet, I've got another one.

MR. McCLELLAN: Okay.

Q Why -- if you're suggesting that people will debate the numbers, that's kind of a backhanded way to say, oh, who cares about the numbers. Well, apparently, the President's top economic advisors do, because that's why they wrote a very large report and sent it to Congress. So why was the prediction made in the first place, if the President and you and his Treasury Secretary were going to just back away from it?

MR. McCLELLAN: Well, one, I disagree with the premise of the way you stated that. This is the annual Economic Report of the President and the economic modeling is done this way every year. It's been done this way for 20-some years.

Q So why not -- why aren't you standing behind it?

MR. McCLELLAN: I think what the President stands behind is the policies that he is implementing, the policies that he is advocating. That's what's important.

Q That's not in dispute. The number is the question.

MR. McCLELLAN: I know, but the President's concern is on the number of jobs being created --

Q My question is, why was the prediction made --

MR. McCLELLAN: -- and the President's focus is on making sure that people who are hurting because they cannot find work have a job. That's where the President's focus is.

Q Then why predict a number? Why was the number predicted? Why was the number predicted? You can't get away with not -- just answer the question. Why was that number predicted?

MR. McCLELLAN: I've been asked this, and I've asked -- I've been asked, and I've answered.

Q No, you have not answered. And everybody watching knows you haven't answered.

MR. McCLELLAN: I disagree.

You can almost hear McClellan mutter under his breath "hey, these lame responses worked when Ari fed them to you; why are you comin' after me?"

posted by Jeff | 4:21 PM |
 

Bush today took another swipe at gay marriage, hoping desperately to wedge himself up.

"I have watched carefully what's happening in San Francisco, where licenses were being issued, even though the law states otherwise," Bush said. "I have consistently stated that I'll support law to protect marriage between a man and a woman. Obviously these events are influencing my decision."

Never mind that he was probably exaggerating this claim. (More likely, he was unaware of San Francisco until one of his advisors mentioned they were marryin' off gays there. But I digress.) What burns my bacon is the following statement : "I am troubled by activist judges who are defining marriage."

Well man, if you're troubled by activist judges, why do you keep nominating them?

posted by Jeff | 1:48 PM |
 

Dean, who is apparently announcing the end to his campaign even as I type, posted this note on his blog this morning:

In the coming weeks, we will be launching a new initiative to continue the campaign you helped begin. Please continue to come to www.deanforamerica.com for updates and news as our new initiative develops. There is much work still to be done, and today is not an end--it is just the beginning.

This Party and this country needs change, and you have already begun that process. I want you to think about how far we have come. The truth is: change is tough. There is enormous institutional pressure in our country against change. There is enormous institutional pressure in Washington against change, in the Democratic Party against change. Yet, you have already started to change the Party and together we have transformed this race. Along the way, we’ve engaged hundreds of thousands of new Americans in the political process, as witnessed by this year’s record participation in the primaries and caucuses.

The fight that we began can and must continue. Although my candidacy for president may end today, the most important goal remains defeating George W. Bush in November, and I hope that you will join me in doing everything we can to support the Democrats this fall. From the earliest days of our campaign, I have said that the power to change Washington rests not in my hands, but in yours. Always remember, you have the power to take our country back.


Yesterday I expressed the wish to hear him say roughly these same words. I know many folks thought he was a loose cannon or a sell-out; many felt he might even try to destroy the party on his way out. Perhaps his campaign was crushed as much by people's strong opinions of Dean (he was neither a mythic hero or villain) as by the whole "electability" issue. Who knows. But I'm pleased to see Dean leaving on the honorable note I expected.

More importantly, it appears Dean plans to continue working at the grassroots. He may well contribute more to the party than he would have as President. I've taken a lot of heat on this blog for backing Dean down the stretch after it was clear Dennis Kucinich wasn't going to emerge. My switch is fair game for derision and I'm happy to take the heat for it. But on the occasion of his departure, I'd like to thank Howard Dean for his vision and courage in the race. I hope everyone would extend the same thanks.

posted by Jeff | 10:34 AM |
 

Youth

This morning, I listened to students at the University of Wisconsin describe what happened at the moment of truth. Despite their support of Dr. Dean's platform, at the last second they switched to Kerry based on the "electability" canard. I know, everyone's doing it. But these were Dean's army. Many of them probably wouldn't have voted in the first place if it hadn't been for his candidacy. Et tu, Badgers?

And they went with Kerry--not hopeful, populist Edwards (at least according to this story from NPR). That's odd, too. Edwards, in fact, picked up the pro-war conservative crowd. (Raising the specter that Edwards might run stronger in the industrial north, where broad-shouldered union men have lost jobs; war-hero Kerry, meanwhile, could run stronger in the patriotic south. Naaahh...) You'd think that if a student were going to switch from Dean at the last moment, the choice would be the new insurgent, right? Given the opportunity to boldly go where they've never gone before (the voting booth), surely they'd give the establishment the finger? No.

This is why youth is courted lightly. Lacking political experience, voting is like other exercises of trying on identities. The flightiness of the electorate isn't due to young voters alone--exit polls said 58% of voters made their decision in the last week. But particularly now, when the electorate is so flighty, the youth vote is the last segment to count on. An odd outcome for a group who just a year ago was considered such fertile ground by both Dems and the GOP.

Things will probably change in the general election. The choice will be far clearer between any of the Dems and Bush than it is now, with three likeable and similar candidates. I doubt that fact will give Howard Dean much comfort.

posted by Jeff | 6:42 AM |


Tuesday, February 17, 2004  

It's your money (and it's going into the Man's pocket)

My attempts to come up with cool pie charts as imagined below have fallen a bit short (so far!). However, my search did turn up something valuable. According to the IRS, as a percentage of all taxes collected, individual income taxes did decline between 1998 and 2002, from 50% to 47.8%.

Ah, but wait. If you earn a paycheck, you're probably still paying more. Employment tax--that wee fee Unca Sam snips from your paycheck--has grown considerably, from 34.2% to 39.5%. Meanwhile, corporate income taxes have fallen, from 11.6% to 8.3%.

Let's check the scorecard:

Workers are paying 3.1% more of the total burden, even after income tax reductions, in the past four years.

Corporations, meanwhile, are paying 3.3% less.

This is particularly egregious when you consider that the funds workers support with their paychecks (Social Security, Medicare) are being raided by the President to (not quite) pay for his tax cuts to the corporations and the wealthy.

Still, I lack the data to mock up my cool pie charts...

posted by Jeff | 3:14 PM |
 

Apropos of that Dean post, I should mention that Joe Trippi now has his own blog. It's called Change for America, and reading through the few posts he has up, I'm wondering if maybe he's not the guy who will organize the people. Good stuff. Go have a look.

posted by Jeff | 12:31 PM |
 

I'd like to draw your attention to a couple of posts on my local blog.

Yesterday I interviewed a Democratic candidate for the state legislature. He hails from a small town in rural Southern Oregon, and isn't likely to get much attention, even in the local press. Whether or not my blog qualifies as actual journalism is debatable. But this isn't: with corporate media dominating broadcast channels (particularly local radio), there aren't as many venues for this kind of discussion.

It pleases me enormously to think blogs may help fill an important role in the democratic process.

posted by Jeff | 10:23 AM |
 

Although I have no credibility on the issue anymore, I nevertheless have a few thoughts about Howard Dean. In the event that he doesn't win Wisconsin today, he will be presented with a valuable opportunity. It won't seem like it to a man who felt he was a whisker away from the White House. But if he steps back and looks at the situation, he might realize his role as an outsider is far more valuable than as an insider (one could reasonably call that the central lesson of his campaign).

When Dean first decided to run, he had no earthly reason to believe he would become a viable candidate (though no doubt that was his aim). The freedom of running from way outside allowed him the objectivity to judge the country's situation, the electorate's wishes, and his own strategy. Like Dylan said, "when you got nothin,' you got nothin' to lose." So he reached out and found a vast group of educated, wired Americans who were feeling revolutionary. Thus a serious candidacy was born.

The nerve to throw his lot in with revolutionaries catalyzed the party--but also freaked it out. Revolutionaries are groovy and all, but it's the stable old-timers who tend to see you through when things get tough. Dean's major failing was that he kept talking revolution too long; staid Iowans and flinty New Hampshirians, presented with the task of defeating Bush, looked at the revolutionary approach and blinked. The debacles that followed--Dean throwing in with Neel and old, decidedly non-revolutionary Dems--were too late and too desperate to win back the moderates.

So Dean is essentially back where he started, but with some surprising gains. Kerry may win, but the party looks far different--it is safe now to talk revolution, to take the fight to Bush, and to quit genuflecting to Reaganism. (Man, am I glad about that last one--if I had to endure another election where the Democrat expounded the virtues of self-reliance and corporate cronyism, I think I'd move to Canada.) Even with a Kerry victory, it is Dean who commands the revolutionary army.

If he wants to continue to remake the Democratic Party, he must face reality and step away from the race. His opportunity is in showing that politics isn't just about political races--it's about ideas and coalitions. Stepping aside now and cheerfully supporting the nominee would put Dean in the position to continue to demand Democrats act like Democrats. He can show that there's more to offer a party than candidacy and act as an example to all his supporters who will now wonder what they should do. Setting the party's agenda, crafting policy solutions--that's where the real power is. That's where real change begins. It's also absolutely critical in rebuilding the party from the ground up; Kerry may win the election, but Deaniacs could actually seize the party from the DLC.

Dean was an outsider when he started, and he showed how powerful that can be. If he loses in Wisconsin, he'll be an outsider again. The decision about how to use that position is up to him.

posted by Jeff | 8:08 AM |


Monday, February 16, 2004  

"The tax relief was a vital part of this economic recovery."

President Bush, today.

Much like "relief" here has a specific definition, I think we shoud recall what a Bush "recovery" looks like.

posted by Jeff | 5:17 PM |
 

Imagine these graphics. Two pie charts, side by side. In the first, all federal tax income, divided to include corporate and individual taxes, the latter divided by quintile. That one dated 1999. The second pie chart contains the same slices, but is dated 2003.

Below, it might be instructive to have two more pie charts. In these, we see federal expenditures, divided to include discretionary spending, Medicare, Social Security, and defense. Again, dated 1999 and 2003.

My suspicion, of course, is that you'd see the lower income slices in the "tax" pie get bigger as a portion of collected income, and you'd see the expenditures for discretionary spending--the federal funds used in supportive services that mainly benefit those lower income slices--get slimmer. Might be a powerful argument against the GOP's cynical "we just want you to keep your money."

Where does one find those kind of data?

posted by Jeff | 2:41 PM |
 

David Neiwart, at both his site and the American Street, wonders just how dirty Republicans will get in the upcoming year:

Of even greater concern, though, is the kind of emerging conservative rhetoric that paints liberals not only as "desperate" but evil vermin who deserve to be exterminated.

(Answer: as dirty as their creativity permits. It's going to be a back-alley knife fight.)

The reason is because the GOP strategy-setters have been co-opted by the neocon fringe (which is to say the fringe of the neoconservative wing). The Republican Party still a pretty varied stew--red meaters like Tom DeLay, sure, but there are also healthier ingredients like Olympia Snowe. In local politics, the GOP is even more varied. City republicans are as likely to be gay, nonwhite, or secular as their Democratic foes. But those folks aren't charting election strategies.

Francine Prose, in an article in the March Harper's (if you subscribe to only one magazine, Harper's should be the one), compared the philosophical underpinnings of the neocon wing to reality shows.

Observant readers may already have noted that the guiding principles to which I've alluded--flinty individualism, the vision of a zero-sum society in which no one can win unless someone else loses, the conviction that altruism and compassion are signs of folly and weakness, the exaltation of solitary striving above the illusory benefits of cooperative mutual aid, the belief that certain circumstances justify secrecy and deception, the invocation of a reviled common enemy to solidify group loyalty--are the exact same themes that underlie the rhetoric we have been hearing and continue to hear from the Republican Congress and our current administration.

If Democrats wish to defend themselves against this approach, they have several options, most of them bad. They can respond in kind--but unlike the group loyalty GOP overloards can expect, Dems will get a bronx cheer from their own camp, and drive waffling Republicans back to George. They can ignore the attacks, which is the classic Daschle Maneuver. But smiling and praising the guy who's carving you up in a knife fight has shown to have its flaws as well.

The Democrats have about a month to come up with a coherent response that works. Elements from the campaign--calling the GOP on these tactics rather than responding with slimier smears; demanding that the press ask hard questions about the behavior of politicians; demanding that the GOP stand behind its actual record rather than its PR--have worked. But they mostly worked among the Democratic faithful and during a relatively attack-free phase.

Another tactic is to target the moderates with a reasonableness campaign. Trying to separate the Snowes from the Bushes might be easier than Dems imagine--after all, with very soft support and a growing list of black marks, Bush may not even be around next year. Senators have a longer view. Congressional Dems can give support to this tactic by pushing for moderate legislation--in the Bush years, moderation is a wedge issue for Republicans.

In any case, soon the knives will start glinting under streetlights. How will the Dems respond?

posted by Jeff | 11:24 AM |
 

Poor Dean. Here's what one of his senior staffers said yesterday: "If Howard Dean does not win the Wisconsin primary, I will reach out to John Kerry unless he reaches out to me first." Ouch. (That's some discipline in the Dean camp, no?)

posted by Jeff | 8:13 AM |
 

A reminder, next Monday begins Movie Week here at Notes. Mark it on your calendars--

posted by Jeff | 8:09 AM |


Sunday, February 15, 2004  

Nation Building, Part 3
Promoting Democracy



1. Introduction
2. Self-Determination

US foreign policy depends on two generally conflicting interests--the desire to exercise control in strategic regions and the implied goal of promoting democracy throughout the world. To Americans, the conflict isn't as obvious. Public campaigns in the former Soviet Union, Latin America, Afghanistan, and Iraq--all of these fostered in the breasts of Americans a soaring pride of the national commitment to democracy. But the US politicians don't use their partnerships with countires like Saudia Arabia, China, or Kuwait in those same PR campaigns. It is these latter relationships that the rest of the world knows is actual US foreign policy: control of regions through partnerships with stable tyrannies.

And, as Iraqis themselves learned after Gulf War I, the US rarely has the stomach for long-term, systemic solutions that would ensure democratic governments not only emerge, but survive. They know that once politicians in America have gotten their bump in the polls, they abandon the hard work and turn to the next adventure for additional cheap PR.

A recent New Yorker article touched on some of these points. In it, George Packer argues that these failings come from both sides of the ideological spectrum because both hold incomplete visions of what democracy means.

The dominant theme of American politics since the nineteen-sixties has been freedom: cultural freedoms under Democrats, economic freedoms under Republicans. The pursuit of happiness became a private affair, and the sense of civic responsibility withered among liberals and conservatives alike. The political choice was between two versions of hedonism.

In the conservative case, ideological creep has led to a kind of democratic totalitarianism in which the urge to democratize comes at the point of a sword. The US no longer participates in international democratic institutions and foreign policy has become the "coalition of the billing"--the US dragging along whomever it can buy off. Thus the conservative vision offers conquered nations little hope of self determination. Weakened vassal state are dependent on their "liberators," and countries like Afghanistan and Iraq have little choice but to accept democracy on American terms.

But if the conservative vision offers too little self-determination, the liberal vision offers too little structure or support.

Certain mental traits that have spread among Democrats since the Vietnam War get in the way--not just the tendency toward isolationism and pacifism but a cultural relativism (going by the name of "multiculturalism") that makes it difficult for them to mount a wholehearted defense of one political system against another, especially when the other has taken root among poorer and darker-skinned peoples.

Liberals, for very different reasons, have not been willing to put in the effort to rebuild democracies, either. Stung by past quagmires, they are unwilling to stick around and do the hard work, hoping that liberation will become the source of democracy. Their impetus is further limited by the relatively smaller bump they receive in the polls at home.

The dimension Packer doesn't mention in his article (which has a different focus) is this: sincere regional commitments to democracy ask that US foreign policy be reshuflled entirely. Holding the line on "evil" Iran while protecting "good" Saudi Arabia and Israel completely undermines US credibility in the Mideast. This exposes the real strategic disadvantage of promoting democracies: it's risky. The best symbol for this conflict is Iraq itself. While the US wishes to appear supportive of democracy there, it can't really afford it--at least not in the short term.

If you want to lose that unwanted beer belly, eventually you have to come to the reality of physics. Either you cut back on the beer, or you exercise more. There are a lot of other options, but solutions are finite.

So it is with democracy. If the US has a sincere desire to promote it, the reality has to be confronted. Without the foundation of physical safety, economic stability, education, functional services, and so on, the country will be lost to chaos. Without a national commitment to democratic principles--free press, minority rights, civil liberties--the country's nascent democracy will be lost to tyranny. And without confronting the power of ideological opposition within a culture--generally fundamentalism in the Mideast--the country's democracy will co-emerge with its opposite embedded into government and have to fight a downward spiral of internal conflict.

The US must also put greater systemic changes in its own foreign policy into place. It must begin leading in international cooperation (whether through the UN or independently), and it must abandon policies that coddle dictatorships in neighboring countries.

Without the long-term commitment to building these structures and changing its own policy, "promoting" democracy will remain confused and contradictory and function mainly as domestic PR.

posted by Jeff | 11:17 AM |


Saturday, February 14, 2004  

Meanwhile, Bush dumped two inches of documentation that--ah, well, that doesn't clarify anything.

An initial review of the more than 300 pages found no additional documentation about why Bush went months without attending required drills while he was living in Montgomery, Ala., and at his home base in Houston between May 1972 and May 1973.

The documents also do not clear up another mystery about Bush's military service: why then First Lieutenant Bush, a fighter-interceptor pilot, did not take his required annual flight physical examination in mid-1972. On Aug. 1, 1972, he was suspended from flight status for not taking the physical, and never flew again.

Although this story continues to explode (Google News article count: 2,030--a 30% increase since Wednesday), I'm ambivilent about its significance. I imagine everyone more or less thinks the following scenario is pretty close to the truth: George Bush, a young man with no taste to die in an unpopular war, took advantage of his Daddy's position to get in the Guard. Once there, he farted around and did the minimal amount of work until, as the war was essentially over, he took advantage of an early exit. Big whoop.

But the Bush team, intrepid spinsters when they are on the offense, show no such agility on defense. Rather than admitting that his service was undistinguished and moving on, Bush has allowed a non-story--or a small one--to fester into a major issue. Clinton showed that it's not the blowjob that gets you, it's the lie about the blowjob. Yet Bush seems to be wandering into the same territory. Now, even if he is exonerated on the service issue, his character has taken a pretty big hit. Americans have a bad taste in their mouths over this one, and it will be hard for the President to reverse that. Instead, he seems to be offering more of the same. Now the press will have a weekend to tell a new variant of the story--Bush releases more ink into the water, hoping to cover up the issue.

Which means two more days of asking, "What's he hiding?'

posted by Jeff | 9:13 AM |
 

1992: Matt Drudge reports a rumor that a Democratic presidential candidate has had an affair and it becomes a media storm. 2004: Matt Drudge reports a rumor that a Democratic presidential candidate has had an affair and...nobody reports it.

Why the restraint?

posted by Jeff | 9:00 AM |


Friday, February 13, 2004  

Contest!!!

Win* a free** copy of the White House Inc. Employee Handbook.***

Rules:

1.) You must be agree to post a review of the book--either on your own blog or, if you have no blog, here (or the blog of your choice). The good folks at Penguin-Putnam sent me two copies for review, so it seems the neighborly thing to do.

2.) To claim the book, be the first to post a comment or email the correct URL on which the following sentence appears. You will find it at the website of the folks who wrote this book, Whitehouse.org:

"Everyone may wear dresses so long as they are women."

Happy hunting.

____________________________
*If you actually want it. Should you wish to auction the book, give it to the (satirically) needy, or pawn it at Powell's for beer money, that's your business--provided you abide by rule #1.

**I'll even spring for postage.

***This book is satirical. For an actual White House employee handbook, go here. The views expressed in the White House Inc. Employee Handbook are not those of "Notes on the Atrocities," it's member sites, or any of the multiple personalities of the blogger. Unless you enjoy the book, in which case I may claim them.

posted by Jeff | 4:19 PM |
 

BUSH ADMITS ABSENCE: "I WAS WITH MOTHER THERESA"

WASHINGTON (API) -- Under increasing pressure from Democrats and the media, President Bush today released a statement about where he was for five months in 1972. "Although the American people understand that these malicious charges made by my political opponents are nothing more than a tawdry effort to smear my spotless record, I nevertheless stand before you today with a personal disclosure. I had hoped to avoid this because it was my own private business, and certainly nothing I wanted to take political advantage of, but for five months between May and October 1972, I was in Calcutta, India, helping Mother Theresa nurse that great city's dying poor."

The President spoke to a hand-selected group of journalists and supporters in the White House earlier today. Mr. Bush has found himself in hot water over gaps in his service record from his time in the Air National Guard. Until this morning, the President resolutely maintained that he served the full time in the Guard, meeting his service obligations. On Tuesday, the White House released records of paychecks to try to quell interest in the story. While it bolstered the President's claim for much of the alleged absence, reporters called for information about a gap in payments in 1972.

Today's announcement started a number of observers, who were surprised at the revelation. "Bush was in Calcutta?" asked a surprised family friend, Mack "Tex" Jones. "Hell, he was one of my drinkin' buddies. You'd a thought I'd a noticed somethin' like that. Five months you say? Damn. I guess I was pretty hammered."

Democrats were leery about the claim. "It's certainly hard to argue that it was misspent time--if indeed he was in Calcutta," said Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. "Does Mother Theresa's outfit keep records down there? Can anyone verify it?"

"They were the dead and dying," noted Ed Gillespie, RNC head. "Be hard to find anyone who remembers him. But no doubt the Democrats will argue it proves he wasn't there. They're so cynical."

Once group not surprised were organizers of the "Peace President" movement, who have mounted a lobbying effort for the President to receive a Nobel Peace Prize. Jenna Thomson, director of the project, said it pointed out that Bush's commitment to peace has been a life-long journey. "This might put him over the top."

Calls to the Calcutta convent have not yet been returned.

posted by Jeff | 12:00 PM |
 

While I work on some satire, what's the scuttlebutt on Drudge's rumor about Kerry and an intern?

Intrigue surrounds a woman who recently fled the country, reportedly at the prodding of Kerry, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

A serious investigation of the woman and the nature of her relationship with Sen. John Kerry has been underway at TIME magazine, ABC NEWS, the WASHINGTON POST, THE HILL and the ASSOCIATED PRESS, where the woman in question once worked....

In an off-the-record conversation with a dozen reporters earlier this week, General Wesley Clark plainly stated: "Kerry will implode over an intern issue." [Three reporters in attendance confirm Clark made the startling comments.]

Apparently the Post is denying it.

Leonard Downie Jr., executive editor of The Washington Post, acknowledged that his staff had begun to dig deeper into the life and career of Kerry, but said he had not heard anything about an alleged infidelity. "What we're finding, I don't know," he said. "This is the first we are looking into him this way."

Clark today endorsed Kerry, so that doesn't exactly square with the Drudge report. More?

posted by Jeff | 10:20 AM |


Thursday, February 12, 2004  

After a year of outrage fueled by MoveOn, blogs, and Howard Dean, here we are again: with an old Washington insider as the (presumptive) Democratic nominee. We had a shot at populists and liberals like Kucinich, Edwards, and Dean, and we ended up with a guy more heavily enmeshed with special interests than anyone else in the US Senate.

I'm worried.

Post continues as the American Street...

posted by Jeff | 2:32 PM |
 

I have an extra copy of the White House Inc. Employee Handbook. I'd be happy to forward it along to someone out there (I'd even pay for postage).

1.) Anyone want it?

2.) What should I do to determine who gets it?

posted by Jeff | 11:26 AM |
 

The Center for American Progress found an interesting passage in ABC's "The Note":

Like every other institution, the Washington and political press corps operate with a good number of biases and predilections.

They include, but are not limited to, a near-universal shared sense that liberal political positions on social issues like gun control, homosexuality, abortion, and religion are the default, while more conservative positions are "conservative positions."

They include a belief that government is a mechanism to solve the nation's problems; that more taxes on corporations and the wealthy are good ways to cut the deficit and raise money for social spending and don't have a negative affect on economic growth; and that emotional examples of suffering (provided by unions or consumer groups) are good ways to illustrate economic statistic stories.

A familiar charge. Bernie Goldberg has turned this view into a cottage industry since he published Bias. Let's leave this question aside for the moment. "The Note" extends the argument:

The press, by and large, does not accept President Bush's justifications for the Iraq war -- in any of its WMD, imminent threat, or evil-doer formulations. It does not understand how educated, sensible people could possibly be wary of multilateral institutions or friendly, sophisticated European allies.

It does not accept the proposition that the Bush tax cuts helped the economy by stimulating summer spending.

It remains fixated on the unemployment rate.

CAP refutes the claim in pointed language--fairly predictably; I don't think I need to quote it here. I'm actually more interested in this charge as it stands. I'm wondering, where is this powerful cabal of "Washington and political press corps" "The Note" references?

It obviously excludes the WSJ, Washington Times, Christian Broadcasting Network, and Fox News (among many others). It excludes the myriad print, radio, and television news sources devoted to business. (Maybe writers of "The Note" are so busy reading the World Socialist Press that they're unaware of Forbes, Fortune, and Inc.) Presumably, "The Note" exludes editorial boards as well, because the majority of them supported Bush's invasion.

Am I missing something? Is there any evidence to support this statement? From where I sit, the facts point to the opposite conclusion.

posted by Jeff | 8:19 AM |


Wednesday, February 11, 2004  

"See, tax relief can be used to spend, and that's good, because it increases consumer demand, but tax relief also is being saved by a lot of our families, and that savings are really important in a society that rests upon the flow of capital."

President Bush, in Springfield, MO on Monday

posted by Jeff | 2:12 PM |
 

Yesterday at about this time, I ran a search on Google News of the words "Bush" and "AWOL." Total: 910. I ran the same search just now. Total: 1420.

FYI.

posted by Jeff | 1:36 PM |
 

Iraq's in the toilet, the economy looks good--but only if you're rich, and Osama's still runnin' free. If you're the President, what do you run on? Gay marriage.

Resorting to a wedge issue isn't a bad play. The issue has no consequences--at least none that will appear in the next four years--so Bush won't get into the kind of trouble he's had with WMD. He knows that he's weakest on issues, so he's hoping to craft a campaign around character. This has been a hugely successful move for him so far (though how it will play now that his administration is charged with a number of dubiously honest actions is unclear).

But the biggest calculation is that the opposition will do what it always does: implode. The attacks have already begun. Kerry, whom I'm assuming is going to be the candidate, has already bobbled this hot potato. He knows that merely answering the question will lose him support. While Bush can expect his social moderates to stay in line, Kerry can't. Either the liberal wing or the moderates will break ranks and attack. Either way, Bush wins.

Kerry should probably go on the attack and ask why the man who claims to be a "uniter" is bringing up an issue that has no presidential relevance while people are dying in Iraq and barely scraping by at home. He should point out that amendments to the Constitution generally ensure rights, not remove them, and ask why Bush feels it's necessary. And he should ask everyone who's hoping for real change in America--moderates and liberals alike--whether they think gay marriage is the issue they want the election to turn on. Because that's what Bush is hoping for.

posted by Jeff | 11:18 AM |
 

I'd like to draw your attention to an article in the New Yorker about the intertwining of Halliburton and the federal government (and Dick Cheney's role). I, among others, have long regarded this cozy relationship one of sophisticated and legal profiteering (see here, here, and here) and wondered why it wasn't causing more outrage. Even as I wondered why Congress wasn't passing more stringent anti-profiteering laws to protect the American taxpayer, Congress was busy weakening already existing ones.

Well, maybe I was asking the wrong question. In the New Yorker piece, writer Jane Mayer exposes other facets of the relationship which raise other, and possibly more politically tricky, questions.

Where's the oversight?
We take it for granted that our government serves us and that we have a right to exercise oversight. A major mechanism is transparency. But Halliburton, although it's conducting a number of actions with the federal government's imprimatur, is not subject to the laws of government. Writes Mayer:

Unlike government agencies, private contractors can resist Freedom of Information Act requests and are insulated from direct congressional oversight. Private companies ... can conceal details of their missions from public scrutiny in the name of protecting trade secrets. They are also largely exempt from salary caps and government ethics rules designed to protect policy from being polluted by politics.

Halliburton has already been accused of fraud. How do Americans discover the truth? It's not clear they can.

Why are government contractors able to lobby Congress?
It's not a shocker that government agencies aren't allowed to give money to politicians. Having the CIA dumping federal funds into the coffers of a powerful senator for favorable legislation would constitute corruption in nearly everyone's book. The same is true with government employees. Why then are government contractors like Halliburton and its employees allowed to do it? Mayer again:

Halliburton has no such constraints. The company made political contributions of more than seven hundred thousand dollars between 1999 and 2002, almost always to Republican candidates or causes. In 2000, it donated $17,677 to the Bush-Cheney campaign. Indeed, the seventy or so companies that have Iraq contracts have contributed more money to President Bush than they did to any other candidate during the past twelve years.

Does contracting make it too easy to conduct war?
The neocon hawks introduced the pre-emption doctrine 18 months ago. The military required to conduct optional wars would be vast, and the politics of drafting soldiers to fight them untenable. Solution? Hire out the work. Mayer:

There are some hundred and thirty-five thousand American troops in Iraq, but [retired Air Force colonel Sam] Gardiner estimated that there would be as many as three hundred thousand if not for private contractors. He said, "Think how much harder it would have been to get Congress, or the American public, to support those numbers."

Inadvertently, privatizing military operations has begun to drive foreign policy. One wonders who's on the hook if Iraq gets too messy and expensive and Congress turns off the spigot. Will Halliburton pack up and go home? What if it gets too dangerous to do business and Halliburton pulls out?

Should government contractors abide by US policy?
Despite the "God Bless America" goose-stepping that Republicans demanded in the build-up to the invasion, the very infrastructure they created under privatization had been supporting terrorist regimes. Why not? They're not beholden to the policies or even values of the US government. They're beholden only to stockbrokers and the bottom line.

The United States had concluded that Iraq, Libya, and Iran supported terrorism and had imposed strict sanctions on them. Yet during Cheney?s tenure at Halliburton the company did business in all three countries. In the case of Iraq, Halliburton legally evaded U.S. sanctions by conducting its oil-service business through foreign subsidiaries that had once been owned by Dresser. With Iran and Libya, Halliburton used its own subsidiaries. The use of foreign subsidiaries may have helped the company to avoid paying U.S. taxes.

Who's working for whom?
The most troubling aspect of privatization is that contracting isn't responsive to quick policy shifts. It's a slow, often speculative process. In order to be prepared to invade Iraq, the government was secretly negotiating with Halliburton--even while the President was publicly saying he had made no decision to invade. After the invasion, Congress discovered it didn't have oversight over the scope of the contract.

The Department of Defense?s decision to award Halliburton the seven-billion-dollar contract to restore Iraq?s oil industry was made under "emergency" conditions. The company was secretly hired to draw up plans for how it would deal with putting out oil-well fires, should they occur during the war. This planning began in the fall of 2002, around the time that Congress was debating whether to grant President Bush the authority to use force, and before the United Nations had fully debated the issue. In early March, 2003, the Army quietly awarded Halliburton a contract to execute those plans.

After months spent trying to obtain more information about the classified Halliburton deals, Representative Waxman's staff discovered that the original oil-well-fire contract entrusted Halliburton with a full restoration of the Iraqi oil industry. "We thought it was supposed to be a short-term, small contract, but now it turns out Halliburton is restoring the entire oil infrastructure in Iraq," Waxman said. The Defense Department?s only public acknowledgments of this wide-ranging deal had been two press releases announcing that it had asked Halliburton to prepare to help put out oil-well fires.

The enmeshment between the White House and the company was invisible to Congress, who was learning after the fact what the score was. In fact, the Halliburton contract was actually driving policy, not responding to it. Should the Congress have known this? Should Americans have understood this relationship?

The questions about profiteering are more complex than just making money. It's not surprising that Americans--who must surely assume that Halliburton's defrauding them--are inured to the idea. Corruption seems part of the cost of doing business these days, public or private. But they are still sensitive to the question of safety and security. Mayer's article is instructive because it points to the unintended--and perhaps far more inflammatory--consequences of privatizing the military.

posted by Jeff | 8:47 AM |


Tuesday, February 10, 2004  

Kerry cruises and Clark quits.

"Our goal remains the same, to change the direction of our country and bring a higher standard of leadership to the White House," Clark said. "And there is no party more committed to that effort and there is no party more committed to the people than this party, my party, the Democratic Party."

| link |

And in other news, this is how part of the US Constitution will read if George Bush has his way:

"Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution or the constitution of any State, nor state or federal law, shall be construed to require that marital status or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon unmarried couples or groups."

posted by Jeff | 9:30 PM |
 

All right, this is odd. Today Penguin Putnam sent me a second of the White House Inc. Employee Handbook. Hmmm...

posted by Jeff | 9:07 PM |
 

I know you're bored about the election, but here are a few tidbits:

Kos reports that Clark has cancelled a fundraiser in Houston tomorrow. He speculates that means Clark will be pulling out soon.

The reason may be because Clark has been polling at third in today's primaries. Finishing in that position would spell his doom.

Meanwhile, a recent poll has Howard Dean running third in Wisconsin--and way, way behind John Kerry. Those figures:

Kerry: 45%
Clark: 13%
Dean: 12%

How does the phrase "Bush opponent John Kerry" strike you? (Could be worse--if John's gonna win, I like the idea that it's early rather than later. He'll need as much of that war chest as he can preserve.)

[Update: according to exit polling, Kerry's won both Virginia and Tennessee, putting the vice to Edwards and Clark. Clark, who appears to have finished third in both states, does seem doomed.]

posted by Jeff | 1:51 PM |
 

The question of whether Bush went AWOL while serving in the National Guard is well-covered (currently 910 sources on a Google News search). Kevin Drum, who's become the point man on it (I saw he was quoted by the Washington Post and Chicago Tribune) has all the relevant info. In the mad rush to spin the story (it's possible only Bush knows the whole truth), people are theorizing some pretty grand things. I suggest that we just watch it unfold. That Bush--the man who led the country to two wars and whose administration has publicly questioned Democratic patriotism--is defending himself against charges of having gone AWOL in an earlier war is pretty shocking stuff.

Moreover, there are some uncomfortable questions floating in the air that I'd prefer stay there as long as possible. Kevin identifies two: why don't the stories add up, and why is Bush refusing to release his entire military record? I'd add a third--why has no one stepped forward to defend the President from the years he allegedly wasn't AWOL? All of those questions have more than one answer--and all of the answers are bad for the President. Letting voters ponder the possibilities (what else is amiss?; how bad a soldier was he?; what else is in his military record?) is just dandy by me.

Because, while all this is playing out, I'm wondering--where the hell have you all been? For three years people have bought all the President's explanations, given him the benefit of thousands of doubts, and overlooked abundant evidence that he's dishonest, incompetent, a slacker, and not particularly bright. After his chat with Tim Russert, he got a Bronx cheer from pretty much the entire world. They blamed him for being confused and unsteady, lackluster, dishonest, and dim. Yeah? Did any of you see the debates he had with Gore? He hasn't changed a bit--but for some reason the country has awakened to the man they elected.

This AWOL business is keep America's eyes trained on the man they elected. The longer that happens, the happier I'll be.

posted by Jeff | 12:15 PM |
 

A last word on the last man to be sentenced in the "Portland Seven" case. Yesterday Maher "Mike" Hawash was given seven years for "aiding the Taliban" (actually, it was a bizarre attempt to aid the Taliban--he never got closer to Afghanistan than Western China). It was an emotional case in Portland--a stage play of the larger drama we see nationally regarding terrorism, Islam, race, and the legal system.

Hawash, who was a legal citizen, married to a blond-haired, blue eyed Portlander, and was an engineer at Intel, became the symbol for every side in the argument. As Hawash was jailed in solitary confinement for weeks without charge, friends and co-workers staged a robust protest, seeing him as an example of lost civil liberties. He became a test case for the power of the government to prosecute legal US citizens. And then on the other side of things, a local editorialist named David Reinhard played the worst kind of race/creed politics, arguing that Hawash, by virtue of his beard and skin color, "offered just a small clue about why the Joint Terrorism Task Force was interested in 'Mike' in the first place."

Then there were the legal and political issues. John Ashcroft promoted the Portland Seven as examples that the Patriot Act was necessary and working.

The United States does not casually or capriciously charge its own citizens with providing support to terrorists. But the terrorist attacks on September 11th, 2001, serve as a constant, stark reminder that America has enemies in the world . . . and sometimes the enemies are here at home. The plea agreements in the Portland case would have been more difficult to achieve, were it not for the legal tools provided by the USA Patriot Act.

Yesterday, Ashcroft called it a "defining day in America's war on terrorism." But he didn't mention that none of the defendants were being tried as terrorists, nor that laws pre-dating the Patriot Act would be used to prosecute them. In fact, one could argue that the Portland Seven were the perfect example of why the Patriot Act isn't necessary.

Now that we've reached the end of the road, the lessons aren't clear. Hawash yesterday took full responsibility for his actions, saying he was "Proud to be a US citizen." For those who wanted this to be a test case for the Patriot Act, Hawash was something less than perfectly innocent, but also something far more less than traitorous. Neither civil liberties proponents nor racists like Reinhard are going to feel comfortable identifying this case as the symbol of their cause (and although Ashcroft must ride this horse politically, it's unclear whether legislators will see it as a triumph of the Patriot Act).

Like the larger drama playing out nationwide, the prosecution of Maher Hawash was confusing and painful. It didn't lead back to the clean concept of "evil" that began with Bush's rhetoric, but neither did it sever Islam's role. Everyone wanted more clarity after 9/11, but this case, if it's symbolic of anything, shows that the road is going to be a lot muddier than we'd hoped.

[Clarification: Al-Muhajabah pointed out that my use of the phrase "neither did it sever Islam's role" was a little sloppy. My intent there wasn't implicate Islam as a contributor to terror.]

posted by Jeff | 8:37 AM |


Monday, February 09, 2004  

In what marks a first for Notes on the Atrocities, I received a promotional book for review today. Penguin Putnam sent me the satirical White House Inc. Employee Handbook, written by the folks at whitehouse.org. A publicist contacted me about the book a couple weeks ago, apparently unaware that my reach was, ahem, limited.

Nevertheless, I regard it as a milestone for the blog--surely now no one can argue that I'm a legitimate media outlet. I intend to take the responsibility seriously and start publishing only inoffensive, pro-American fluff pieces. Mostly about Britney Spears.

Expect a review in a couple weeks. I figure it's the least I can do.

posted by Jeff | 4:55 PM |
 

What if the Unthinkable Happens?

Aside from the obvious joys of travel, I get a nice fringe benefit--cable TV. During my extremely packed weekend, I managed about 15 minutes of TV time on Saturday morning, all of which I devoted to Fox News. The show featured Brit Hume (host?) in a talking heads format. The segment I watched was essentially no more fair or balanced than the average Michael Savage segment--and about as paranoid. It was probably a show designed to be partisan, but it was well beyond the pale in terms of bias. Commenters referred to the "shocking smear" campaign of the Democrats about the President's reserve service. (No mention was made that the media is the central prosecutor in that case--well, all media not owned by Rupert Murdoch, anyway.) And then at one point, one of the heads began a sentence this way: "If the unthinkable happens and John Kerry beats George Bush...."

Unthinkable? That's an interesting way to put it.

A series of events--all of them false--has led to a circumstance in which the right wing media has confirmed its own self-generated reality with flatly wrong data. It's circular reasoning, so it doesn't really matter where you start. I'll go with spin of the kind exemplified by the "unthinkable" quote. Since George Bush took office, the conservative media haven't had to give voice to the left. News begins with a GOP press release, continues to a GOP flack, is refuted by a slightly critical GOP flack who thinks some minor element of the release is inaccurate, and then is "analyzed" by a conservative commentator, who either toes the line or boldly sides with the "dissentor." There's nothing to refute the spin cycle.

Next element: the media. Until very recently, even the "independent" media (read: not explicitly conservative) failed to give voice to true opposition voices. In large part this was because even the Democrats weren't really opposed to the President (until Dean). Bush got tax cuts, wars, massive spending increases on pet issues, corporate giveaways, and environmental givebacks--all without much of a whisper from the Dems.

Next element: the people. While Bush was pushing through those tax cuts and wars (etc.), the people loved him. They approved of his actions in the highest numbers on record. This meant the opposition wasn't opposed and the independent media weren't investigating, and the Murdoch media were using those same numbers as external proof that the spin cycle reflected reality.

Final element: triumphalism. Finally, conservative politicians crushed moderate Dems and moderate Republicans (there were no liberal Dems), and ran the tables on pretty much every sector of the federal government. Bush was polling in the sixties or seventies, and we were in the midst of a war fervor. Patriotism, always the sole purview of the GOP, was even on their side.

So the media's conservative because they say that's what the people want, and the people vote conservative because they think that's all there is--because the Dems aren't in opposition and the ("independent") media aren't reporting--and so the GOP run the tables which shows that the country's conservative, so the conservative media conclude that's what the people want, and....

There's a certain logic to it. It's mesmerizing. It's so convinicing that there have been times when I've even wondered if I'm crazy (I'd link to a past post here, but I can't find it). Maybe this is George Bush's reality, and we're all just living in it. On the other hand, what happens when links in the chain of Murdoch reality start breaking down--the people start to hate Bush, the situation in Iraq collapses, evidence emerges that Bush really was AWOL, John Kerry wins the election.

For Rupert Murdoch (and his big fat bottom line), that must really be unthinkable.

posted by Jeff | 12:13 PM |
 

Also, in Maine:

50% of municipalities reporting (200 out of 403)

Sen. John Kerry 45%
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean 26%
Rep. Dennis Kucinich 15%
Sen. John Edwards 9%
Retired Gen. Wesley Clark 4%
The Rev. Al Sharpton 0%
Uncommitted 1%

Fifteen percent for DK? Holy Moly! This is after he finished third in Washington (more distantly, with 8% of the vote). I'm not going to seriously argue that Kucinich is on the move here, but as the candidates thin out, Kerry emerges as the de facto candidate, and Dean sinks to his doom, progressives are now shifting votes to the true liberal. (It's really too bad Lieberman didn't carry his Joe-mentum through the weekend; I'd have loved to see him getting beaten by Dennis.)

All right Kucitizens, it appears this simple blogger is ripe for his weekly pile-driving. Come get me.

posted by Jeff | 9:41 AM |
 

Odd:

List of Grammy Award Winners

... and Marcy Marxer.

Spoken Word Album for Children: "Prokofiev: Peter and the Wolf/Beintus: Wolf Tracks," Bill Clinton, Mikhail Gorbachev and Sophia Loren.

Spoken Word Album: "Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them: A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right (Al Franken)," Al Franken.

Instrumental Soloist(s) Performance...

posted by Jeff | 9:38 AM |
 

I was out of town this weekend, and I'm just getting caught up on the news. I'm of course interested in the Bush interview, regretting that I didn't get to see it live (see Drum, eRobin, Jake, and Jesse for cogent analysis). The AWOL story is also exploding with a post containing some of the relevant Bush documents, again at Calpundit (negating the need, apparently, for any other blogs). So there's much to read.

While I do remedial reading this morning, a personal note. This weekend I spent time with a couple dozen folks who are raising money for Buddhist retreat facilities. When they're built, the facilities will accomodate cloistered one- and three-year retreats. Although Tibetans have a long tradition of multi-year retreats, for Americans the idea of sitting on a cushion for three years, wholly out of contact with the world, seems a little offbeat. We've discovered that Americans willing to contribute to such a venture are similarly offbeat, and just a little less rare than Americans willng to actually do the retreat.

In the interest of leaving no stone unturned, I wanted to let you know about this project. Even the idea of the role of long retreat to a society is a fascinating one. Many cultures have developed monastic communities, and mostly they receive cultural support. Why? Is there any benefit to a larger group if some members remove themselves for months or years? Do the retreats actually benefit even the retreatants? The Dalai Lama has been sufficiently interested in this that he's worked with pyschiatrists from the University of Wisconsin to study the effects of meditation on the brain (see also here). In other research, Alan Wallace is planning a project that will study the effects of a one-year retreat on the brains of Buddhists.

In an outcomes-based culture like ours, these studies may help legitimize the notion of long retreat. But in some ways, that allows us to subvert the larger question of whether there's any value to the society at large if a few members to remove themselves from the hustle and bustle of regular activity for extended periods of contemplation and meditation. If this question tickles your interest and you'd like to know more, or if you know someone else whose interest might be tickled, please take the time to drop me a line (emmasblog(at)yahoo(dot)com). We're trying to exapnd our net of interested folks; nothing would please me more than chatting about the project.

Now, back to our regularly-scheduled blog....

posted by Jeff | 8:17 AM |


Friday, February 06, 2004  

Today's one of those funny days when everyone's thinking the same thing.

Listen to Krugman and Dionne:

The trouble is that accepting that excuse requires forgetting a lot of recent history. By February 2002, when the administration released its fiscal 2003 budget, all of the bad news — the bursting of the bubble, the recession, and, yes, 9/11 — had already happened. Yet that budget projected only a $14 billion deficit this year, and a return to surpluses next year. Why did that forecast turn out so wrong? Because administration officials fudged the facts, as usual.

It misleadingly claims that the government is on a path to cut the deficit in half in five years. It denies that the president's tax program is a big part of the fiscal mess we're in. It deflects election-year criticism by shoving the most difficult budget cuts until after Nov. 2. It hides the lengths to which the administration will go to protect its tax cuts for the wealthy.

Yes, that first paragraph was Krugman, the second EJ. Editorial mind meld. But wait, still on the budget deficits, Brad DeLong, writing for the Center for American Progress, picks up the thread.

You'll have an easy time finding the Bush administration's official deficit forecast for 2009: $237 billion.... You'll find news reporters writing with a straight face about Bush's "confidence" that the deficit can be halved by 2009 alongside big boosts in Defense and Homeland Security spending and the extension of all the Bush tax cuts.

Finally, we conclude with the Economist, the sorriest mag in the world (they've been beating themselves up since endorsing Bush in 2000).

If this all looks too good to be true, it is. For once, the administration has not fiddled the books by relying on unrealistically high growth rates in the coming years; but it has relied on other fibs. For a start, the budget does not factor in the future costs of keeping soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan: even Mr Bush's own budget director says costs could be as much as $50 billion for Iraq alone in 2005. Then the usual implausible savings are found from “waste, fraud and abuse”. Third, all the president's cuts are to fall on the one-fifth of the total budget that counts as domestic discretionary spending—hardly likely to happen in an election year.

Read those four paragraphs in a row, and you'll see they could all have come from the same article. And when Paul Krugman and the Economist are writing the same article about Bush's budget, you know something's up.

posted by Jeff | 2:23 PM |
 

According to David Corn, Tim Russert's going to have Bush on Meet the Press for a full hour this weekend. (Bush has always liked Russert--four years ago he wanted to just dispense with the debates and go on "Russert's show.") Corn has eight questions he'd like to hear Russert ask. The first four deal with Iraq--no surprise there (eg. "In October 2002, during a speech in Cincinnati, you said that Saddam Hussein had a "massive stockpile" of biological weapons.... Did you overstate the intelligence?"). Bush should certainly be grilled long and hard on those questions. The next three are about Bush's National Guard experience (again, a rich source of questioning). And the last one is about abortion.

All well and good, but come on--there's so much more! I have a few questions from the "Dubious Claims" vault (aka the Dossiers). Here's a couple more:

1. President Bush, in 1990 you dumped two-thirds of your Harken stock just before the company announced a $23 million loss. The sale on those stocks earned you $848,000. Right now, Martha Stewart is on trial for a similar transaction. Will you tell us why you sold so much of your stock if, as you say, you thought the company was in such great shape?

2. You've mentioned that the "average" taxpayer would see his tax bill decline by over $1100. The per-capita income in the United States is about $31,000. How much would a person who earned $31,000 dollars have received from your tax cut last year?

3. (The Dean question, just to see if he's on his toes.) How many men and women would you have on active duty?

What would you ask him?

posted by Jeff | 9:57 AM |
 

The Labor Department today announced a change in the way jobs will be classified. The Department called it an effort to reflect changes in the workforce over the past twenty years. The last time jobs were reclassified was in 1978, before computing altered the workforce.

The largest change will affect the manufacturing sector. Under the new rules, restaurant employees are being recategorized as industrial workers. "Most restaurant workers today are emplyed in the fast food industry," explained Roland Grimes, economic undersecretary. "These employees work on an assembly line and manufacture a product, pretty much just like Henry Ford's old factory workers, so we felt this made a lot of sense."

Employment figures released today show that industrial and manufacturing jobs were up 347% over last month. President Bush praised the figures and hailed the increase as further evidence that his tax cuts were spurring job growth.

posted by Jeff | 8:33 AM |


Thursday, February 05, 2004  

Nation Building, Part 2
Self-Determination



Introduction

This isn’t the first time we’ve grappled with nation-building, of course. Almost from the start, our leaders have debated the question of intervention. On the one hand, there’s the generous spirit of democracy, which dictates a healthy respect for another sovereign nation’s self-determination. On the other hand, America has never regarded any democracy so highly as its own, and has used its defense to justify coups, assassinations, colonization—everything that we abhor domestically.

The confusion has never been clarified as foreign policy. We’ve articulated positions like those described in the Monroe Doctrine—but flipped the intent depending on whether we were opposing intervention (of other nations against our holdings) or justifying it (when we were violating other countries and their patron states). US foreign policy has been isolationist (as when Hitler was rolling through Europe), and interventionist (as when Roosevelt secretly agreed with revolutionaries in Panama to declare independence in exchange for the rights to the canal). In the end, the issue comes down to expediency.

Looking forward, this question is going to be at the heart of any plans the US might hatch for nation building. It’s reflected perfectly in the confusion of Iraq--whether to grant Iraqis the democracy they want, and possibly lose the country to anti-US forces, or exert its will and produce a puppet regime. More succinctly: if you get into the business of nation building, for whom are you building nations--the US or the citizens of the rebuilt nation?

Conservative View
I think conservatives are less conflicted--and less transparent--on this point. The beneficiary of nation building is the US; whatever self-determination the vassal country achieves, so long as it’s in line with US objectives, is a fringe benefit. There are a few clear reasons for this position: where necessary, nation building can ensure stability in a region, benefiting the US; the US, owing to its history as a constitutional democracy, is the beacon of freedom in the world, and so we are the natural agent to reform dangerous regimes; to ensure US security, nation building is best handled by the US and not left to a coalition where member states have veto power over our actions.

It’s less transparent because the rhetoric doesn’t always match the realpolitik. Now that Iraq is in crisis, the administration has fallen back on the excuse that they’re merely continuing Clinton policies. They claim to have invaded Iraq for humanitarian reasons. It’s a harder sell to be cold and clear-eyed about the fact that you’re using foreign nations essentially as pawns to achieve national goals. I actually believe that this was the sole reason for invading Iraq; neocons like Wolfowitz, Cheney, and Rumsfeld invaded Iraq as a strategic move. Unfortunately, that’s not the justification they offered the public.

Liberal View
Liberals are confused on this point. They simultaneously hold both the values of offering self-determination and and trying to establish (US-friendly) democracies. There’s a strongly humanitarian impulse here: nation building puts into place the building blocks for citizens to rise out of tyranny. It’s a noble goal, but a mostly idealistic one. When the US went to war, folks like Tom Friedman jumped on the bandwagon, knowing that things would just have to be better under us than they were under Saddam.

The problem with this view emerged in the example of Iraq. In many ways it’s the worst of both worlds--the country might revert to tyranny, might become harshly anti-US in the process, and the only solution is to become an accidental occupier or lose any of the strategic advantages the conservatives would derive from occupation. Worse, if a state commits itself to a foreign policy based on humanitarianism, where does it end? Credibility quickly becomes an issue, because the US would naturally prioritize intervention based on national interest.

Thoughts
It’s not possible, probably, to fully isolate policy to either the humanitarian or strategic approach to intervention, nor to craft a global policy with regard to self-determination. But ignoring the question altogether, or having PR promote one while policy actually rests on the other, is a prescription for failure on a number of levels. If liberals want to embark on a policy of intervention, they will have to admit the Machiavellian dimension. Likewise, conservatives have to be more public about their own strategic goals and prepare to offer a plan that includes humanitarian elements. In both cases, the UN provides a buffer (though the neocons don't want to hear it). The UN provides legitimacy for strategic actions and support and experience for the humanitarian aspects. If intervention is an explicit element of foreign policy, it's hard to see how excluding the UN improves the situation.

posted by Jeff | 3:58 PM |
 

This is shaping up to be a bad day for Dick Cheney. First, from the Post, we learn that CIA Director George Tenet yesterday fired back at the administration for heaping the blame for claims about WMD at the CIA's feet. Contradicting White House hawks (among whom Dick was the standard bearer), Tenet said:

...the country had illegal missiles, as well as the ability and intent to quickly produce biological and chemical weapons.

But he said the agency never described Iraq as "an imminent threat" in the months leading up to the March 2003 invasion....

Providing some details of an October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, Tenet said analysts "never said there was an imminent threat" from Hussein's Iraq. "Rather, they painted an objective assessment for our policymakers of a brutal dictator who was continuing his efforts to deceive and build programs that might constantly surprise us and threaten our interests."

The even bigger news, however, is a report that the Valerie Plame leaks came from two aides in Cheney's office--and one of them was chief of staff "Scooter" Libby. Josh Marshall's following the story and claims to be "sitting on some other key developments in the case." So stay tuned.

posted by Jeff | 12:22 PM |
 

While most of the nation watched the primary results on Tuesday, in Oregon we had bigger fish to fry. Voters were considering a ballot measure that second-guessed the state legislature's decision to raise taxes and bring in $800 million over the next two years.

It was really a no-brainer. The increase for a joint filing on an income of $60,000 was 98 bucks. Failure to pass the law would trigger instant cuts to human services, schools, and public safety. Since the bubble burst, Oregon has made all the "worst" lists--highest unemployment, deepest cuts to services, weeks lopped off school years (that earned us ridicule in "Doonesbury"). Recently Oregonians have indicated a willingness to raise taxes--a similar measure last year failed only narrowly, precipitating the worst of the cuts. As the election neared, polling showed the measure close to passage.

So what happened on Tuesday? Voters crushed Measure 30 by a 16% margin. This is bad news for Oregon--horrible news, actually--but national trend-watchers ought to take notice, too.

Post continued on the American Street...

posted by Jeff | 11:35 AM |
 

Nation Building, Introduction

If the issue of nation building was a fairly prominent feature of George Bush's foreign policy in the last election, this year it may be the defining one. In 2000, Bush opposed what he saw as Clintonian intervention--export bleeding heartism. Ironically, Democrats are currently running against nation building in the Bush mode--imperial national interest.

What these positions obscure is that both liberal and conservative are mostly in agreement that nation building is good policy. It's only perceived radicals who oppose it, either collectivist, pro-UN types like Dennis Kucinich, or isolationist, anti-UN types like Pat Buchanan. So for very different reasons, nation building has become the default position for everyone from Tom Friedman to Paul Wolfowitz (there's even the enlightened Machiavellian approach of Robert Kaplan).

But these positions are far from cohesive, and lead to fractured, incoherent implementation like we're seeing in Iraq. Are we there to bring democracy (either to Iraqis or the region), defeat terror, set up a military beachhead to replace Saudi Arabia, or stabilize Mideast oil production? Without a clear sense of why the US should build nations, our foreign policy will continue to suffer from the riptide of competing interests.

Over the next few days, I'm going to take a look those competing interests: national security, national interest, promoting democracy, promoting national self-determination, global cooperation, imperialism, and of course, fighting terror.

Nation building isn't a monolith. Understanding the motivation and efficacy of these strategies is critical in crafting a coherent, effective foreign policy.

posted by Jeff | 8:38 AM |


Wednesday, February 04, 2004  

Fun: offense.

No fun: defense.

When you keep your eyes on the details--in a blogger's case, that means the news, bit by bit as it breaks every day--sometimes you miss the big picture. Backing up to take a global view, I see that the news is all headed in one direction--against the White House.

After three years of scrutiny immunity, the Prez now can't catch a break. In recent days he's announced a mission to Mars, offered his version of the State of the Union, decided to appoint a probe to investigate himself, and released a budget--all of which were received like lead balloons. Oh, and meanwhile, a long-dead story about Bush's Vietnam disservice has resurfaced because, apparently, the press doesn't have a large enough pile of stones to throw at him.

Go take a look at Ballon Juice's recent posts. Poor John is getting a little testy at all the attacks. Over at Just One Minute, Tom's handling the pressure with his usual aplomb, but he's back in the "prevent" formation himself. The GOP really knows how to dish it out. Question is, can they take it?

I don't have the faintest idea, but running the experiment seems like a lot of fun.

posted by Jeff | 1:51 PM |
 

More budget hanky-panky

I know all but the wonkiest of you are disinterested in the President's "budget" (which is really a political strategy document). But this kind of dry hanky panky is exactly how Americans get the screw from this administration, and its very complexity means most people won't care, nor will the media bother to report it. Of course, it's a critical issue.

According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, in addition to the various lies and omissions present in the budget, we also have a little structural hide-and-seek.

The budget purports to resurrect the “Pay-As-You-Go” rules that played an important role in moving the nation from deficits to surpluses in the 1990s.... The Pay-As-You-Go rules enacted as part of the 1990 Budget Enforcement Act, and signed into law by the President’s father, required that any entitlement expansions or tax cuts be fully paid for through offsetting entitlement cuts or tax increases.

<>Entitlement increases would have to be offset.

<>The costs of refundable tax credits — i.e., tax credits for low- and many moderate-income working families — also would have to be offset.

<>But the costs of other tax cuts — including the large savings tax breaks in the budget, which would represent a bonanza for the wealthiest individuals in the country — would not have to be offset.

<>Furthermore, the only offsets that could be used to pay for entitlement improvements would be cuts in other entitlement programs. Savings on the tax side — such as from closing abusive corporate tax shelters or other tax-avoidance scams — could not be used to finance entitlement benefit improvements.

For low- and middle-income Americans, government benefits are provided principally through entitlement programs. For high-income people, by contrast, government subsidies are provided primarily through what budget analysts and the Joint Committee on Taxation refer to as “tax expenditures” and Chairman Greenspan has referred to as “tax entitlements.” By requiring increases in entitlement programs to be offset but not expansions of tax expenditures, the proposal has reverse “class warfare” aspects. (All emphasis theirs.)

And thus the ideological attacks on the poor and middle class are hidden in a rules change deep within thousands of pages of governmentspeak.

posted by Jeff | 11:12 AM |
 

While I try desperately to write around the demise of my (new) candidate, let me distract you by offering a stat. Below are the total number of Americans who voted yesterday for Al Sharpton and Joe Lieberman, respectively.

Al: 48,903
Joe: 62,318

(By comparison, John Kerry got 86,751 votes in South Carolina, where he finished a distant second.)

We all wrote Joe's eulogy six months ago, so this is barely a footnote in the election. We've had enough time to digest the trends, shocking after Iowa, of a surging Kerry and rallying Edwards. New theories about why and how this happen have replaced the old ones that had us celebrating Howard Dean's victories. It seems all perfectly normal now. Kerry, of course.

But let's go back to Joe. Considering that he received 50 million votes from Americans three years ago and was leading in national polls six months ago, barely beating Al Sharpton on Mini Tuesday is a fairly shocking result. In the carefully re-woven fabric of conventional wisdom, this is the loose thread.

The DLC, who were the earliest and most vitriolic Dean assailants (handily beating out conservatives, who were slow to attack), have called Kerry's emergence a triumph of "answers, not just anger." After New Hampshire, they wrote:

For the second week in a row, rank-and-file Democrats have spoken loud and clear: The Democratic Party is moderate, middle-class, and motivated by hope, not anger. Sen. John Kerry firmly established himself as the big comeback story of the nominating process. He won a second straight victory by following the path urged on Democrats by the original Comeback Kid, President Bill Clinton: showing the country not just what Democrats are against, but what they are for.

That's an interesting pirouette, but what about Joe? He was the true moderate--Kerry, recall, is the candidate Global Stewards gave the highest "liberal quotient" rating. He received a 93%, with Joe pulling up the rear at 76%. (John Edwards was third at 88%).

In fact, the DLC has it exactly backwards. Kerry emerged only after he adopted the Dean message. When he got angrier (at Bush) and more clearly liberal, people finally started to take him seriously. If there's a big loser in this campaign thus far, it's not Dean, but Clintonism. Dean's message is going to be the Dem's message. Clinton's old strategy of appeasement and corporatism rode not under the Kerry banner, but Lieberman's. And last night, it managed a bare 62,000 votes.

Come April, Kerry will be tempted to turn back toward Clintonism--both because that's what advisors will say conventional wisdom dictates and because there's a pile of gold in Clintonism. Progressives need to keep his feet to the fire, though--the Democrats are going to beat Bush this year. This is absolutely no time for appeasement or corporatism. As we move forward, Deaniacs and Kucitizens are going to have to hold this line. Our candidates may not have won, but it's still our party.

posted by Jeff | 7:32 AM |


Tuesday, February 03, 2004  

Based on tonight's results, I'd like to announce that I am switching endorsements. From here on, I'm all for John Edwards.

Kidding.

You can pry my Dean endorsement out of my cold dead hands. Washington is ours, baby! Yeeahhhougggh!

posted by Jeff | 8:17 PM |
 

Predictions I can live with

With exit polling absurdly already available, I will now offer a few predictions about tonight's primaries.

1. Sometime before turning in, I'll be stricken with mild to moderate melancholy upon hearing the drone of Kerry's Senatorial voice or upon gazing at his vast chin.

2. Dean will be declared "dead," by 84% of pundits, irrespective of the outcome. The remaining 16% will say he's "in big trouble."

3. John Edwards' hair will inspire 13% of the electorate to ask, "How old did you say he was, again?"

4. I will receive no fewer than 4 emails from the Kucinich campaign.

5. Janet Jackson's right hooter will continue to fascinate more Americans than any of the Democratic candidates, but will, in the end, receive fewer delegates.

6. Joe Lieberman will begin to tout how he "opened a can of whoop-ass" on Al Sharpton in Delaware, and repeat the Joe-mentum line. Sadly, only 26 people will hear it because not a single TV camera will be at Lieberman HQ.

7. Kerry will announce his love to Missouri, but tell New Mexico he just wants to be friends.

8. I will not make any predictions about who will win any states, but will continue to declare my Dean allegiance to the end--however bitter it may turn out to be.

posted by Jeff | 2:14 PM |
 

I know this has been a thin day for original content. Mainly it's because I'm pretty much agog at how some media organizations looked in the mission statement and discovered it included journalism. After three years of dutifully reprinting White House press releases, a few reporters have managed to work actual reportage into the news holes. In 1972, Bush went AWOL. The Post apparently feels this is now relevant. (I've highlighted some of the juicier bits.)

A review of Bush's military records shows that Bush enjoyed preferential treatment as the son of a then-congressman, when he walked into a Texas Guard unit in Houston two weeks before his 1968 graduation from Yale and was moved to the top of a long waiting list.

It was an era when service in the Guard was a coveted assignment, often associated with efforts to avoid active duty in Vietnam. Bush was accepted for pilot training after having scored only 25 percent on the pilot's aptitude test, the lowest acceptable grade.

In 2000, the Boston Globe examined a period from May 1972 to May 1973 and found no record that Bush performed any Guard duties, either in Alabama or Houston, although he was still enlisted.

According to military records obtained by The Washington Post, Bush first requested and received permission in May 1972 to be transferred to the Alabama National Guard so he could work on a U.S. Senate campaign. After he was in Alabama, he received notice from the Guard personnel center that he was "ineligible" for the Air Reserve Squadron he requested.

In August 1972, Bush was suspended from flying because he failed to complete an annual medical exam. A month later, Bush requested to be assigned to a different unit in Alabama and was approved. Although he was required to attend periodic drills in Alabama, there is no official record in his file that he did....

Bush said in 2000 that he did "show up for drills. I made most monthly meetings, and when I missed them I made them up."

Bush returned to Houston after the election, and again his service is vague in the records. His officers at Ellington Air Force Base wrote in May 1973 that Bush could not be given his annual evaluation, because he "has not been observed" in Houston between April 1972 and the following May. Ultimately, another officer states in a subsequent document that a report for that one-year period was unavailable for "administrative reasons."

All of this is, of course, well-documented, and is well-known to those of us who care if our President is a layabout liar. It has, however, not been well-reported. Any more of this and bloggers might be in trouble.

posted by Jeff | 11:26 AM |
 

The dubious premises on which the President's dubious policies teeter are finally getting some scrutiny from the national press. Listen to what the editorial pages had to say about the "budget."

New York Times
The central fiction in the budget is that it constitutes the first step in halving the record $521 billion deficit over the next five years. Mr. Bush accomplished that feat on paper, in part by pretending that there would be no additional costs for the military in Iraq and Afghanistan this year — a supplemental request for an additional $50 billion or so will presumably arrive safely after Election Day. He also ignores the long-term effects of his proposal to make permanent most of the administration's $1.7 trillion in temporary tax cuts.

Washington Post
The Bush administration's 2005 budget is a masterpiece of disingenuous blame-shifting, dishonest budgeting and irresponsible governing. The administration mildly terms the $521 billion deficit forecast this year "a legitimate subject of concern," but asserts that it has the problem well in hand: The deficit, it assures the country, will be cut in half by 2009. This isn't credible -- and even if it were, it wouldn't be an adequate answer to a problem far more serious than this administration acknowledges.

Boston Globe
WHEN IT COMES to budget deficits, President Bush is like a husband who gambles away the grocery money and then blames his wife for serving leftovers.

Portland Oregonian
Any solution will be hard, and neither party has a monopoly on denial. But we need to begin debating the economic future of this country -- and we need to do it with real numbers.

Baltimore Sun
WHILE PRESIDENT Bush is looking into why he got bum intelligence on Iraq, he should check out his sources of fiscal advice as well. From the budget he submitted to Congress yesterday, it appears the president is being scandalously misinformed.

posted by Jeff | 9:35 AM |
 

Sometimes you can only ride a horse so far. The weight of the current Bush budget is making that neocon horse start to wheeze. Listen to the following exchange from the Newshour, and I think you have a sense of what the GOP is going to be up against in the coming year. First is Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota, the ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee.

What's fictitious about it is when the president says he's going to cut the deficit in half over the next five years. He is not. He's not going to come close to cutting it in half. He gets that by just leaving out big things that he's going to spend money on, like the continuing war on terror, he leaves out that he's going to take every penny of Social Security surplus over the next decade, all that money is going to have to be paid back. He's doing the same thing to the Medicare trust fund. And on and on it goes. He pays for the alternative minimum tax problem in the first year, but no year after that.

So the true deficit five years from now under the president's plan is not going to be cut in half, it's going to be over $600 billion added to the debt. In addition to that, we know that the budget that he's put out there is not his real budget. Over the last three years, he's added spending after he's proposed his budgets of $250 billion, and his OMB director today acknowledged they're going to do it again after this year's election, they're going to come in and ask for over $50 billion more. So this is a fiction in every way.

To this responds Iowa Congressman Jim Nussle, chairman of the House Budget Committee, weakly:

Well, the president of the United States received when he took office a deficit with regard to job creation in this economy. We inherited a recession. He inherited a security deficit from the previous administration that had gutted homeland security and gutted national defense....

Now that we have done that, now that the economy is starting to recover, we're starting to see job creation, now that the country is protected, thank goodness, and needs to be protected even more, we can turn our focus toward dealing with the deficits. The president has a plan to cut the deficit in half, in five years. It's not a fiction to do that.

You see the problem, don't you? The GOP doesn't really have a response to the ballooning budgets because they can't blame it on the Democrats. Blame, obfuscation, and misdirection are the game plan of the GOP. Problem is, these work a whole lot better when you're not actually passing laws.

The reasons blame, obfuscation, and misdirection have worked so well for three years are these: 1) the bills hadn't come due yet, so the obfuscated and misleading remained hidden, and 2) the Democrats failed to call them on the strategy. But now the bills are due, and for once it seems the Democrats may have actually have found their courage. Listen to the final exchange:

MARGARET WARNER: All right, let me ask Congressman Nussle. You said you'd like to see further cuts and do you have many conservative Republicans who are upset about this level of deficits. How are you going to manage all that, and are you going to try to put in even greater cuts than the president is proposing on the domestic side?

REP. JIM NUSSLE: Sure, well, we will have a real plan and it won't just be rhetoric. And what we will try and do is go not only through the discretionary side but also through what we call the mandatory side and look for better ways to deliver the product for people who are in need.

But Senator Conrad mentioned that this is a revenue issue and I just have to respond to that. The revenue I'm concerned about is the revenue that is coming into the checkbooks of families in Iowa and North Dakota and California and across the country. Those are the families who are having revenue problems right now.

We wring our hands as politicians in Washington about the poor government not having enough of your money. It's you that has had a difficult time with your job or a difficult time being able to make ends meet, and making sure you can keep more of those tax dollars is job one to get this economy going again, and I'm proud of that fact -- not only have we coupled that with getting the economy going, but protecting America, and that was worth running a deficit for a short period of time. Now we will get about the business of making sure we control spending so that we not only can cut it in half in five years but get us back to a balanced budget.

MARGARET WARNER: Senator Conrad, brief ten-second response?

SEN. KENT CONRAD: Well, all I can say is I'm concerned about the pocketbooks of North Dakotans and Iowans and the rest Americans too. The problem with this Republican budget is by 2009, they're going to have $35,000 of debt beside the name of each and every American, every man, woman and child in this country, because of the fiscal irresponsibility of this administration.

Spine indeed.

posted by Jeff | 7:15 AM |


Monday, February 02, 2004  

Via DF, who used the opportunity to crow that he'd predicted Kerry weeks ago, we have new Gallup numbers:

Kerry: 53%
Bush: 46%

Edwards: 49%
Bush: 48%

Clark: 50%
Bush: 47%

Dean: 45%
Bush: 52%

Seems the lies and tax cuts are finally starting to take their toll.

posted by Jeff | 5:07 PM |
 

Apparently my comments aren't working for everyone. They seem to work for me, but apologies up front if you try to post a comment and it comes back with an error message.

[Update: Well, this is just dandy. Haloscan is on the fritz--so bad so that I can't even boot up the site. I can tell it's Haloscan because blogger's great and Atrios seems to be having the same problem--and he's a . So thus I deduce. I guess when you use only free software, you're not really in a position to gripe much, though.]

posted by Jeff | 2:07 PM |
 

There are reasons why critics of the Bush regime describe it as "fascist."

Last October 16, [Thomas C. Frazier] decided to take the day off to go to San Bernardino from his home in Santa Ana. His purpose, he says, was "to engage in a legal and peaceful protest" against George W. Bush. The President was in town that day at the Radisson Hotel and Convention Center to support the candidacy of now-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger....

Frazier wrote in a complaint he filed with the San Bernardino Police Department[,] "For no apparent reason, Officer Montecino raced towards me screaming, 'No, no, no, no. Get there, Get there!'" Shortly thereafter, "without any provocation, Officer Montecino then grabbed my sign by enveloping my arms and sign together in one rapid swoop," Frazier wrote....

"I then asked Officer Montecino, 'Can I have my sign back, and I'll just leave then?' Officer Montecino responded by stating, 'I don't have time for this,' while simultaneously striking my right forearm with a smashing blow with one side of a set of handcuffs. I asked Officer Montecino if I was free to go, and he stated, 'No, you're being arrested.' As Officer Montecino put the other cuff on my left wrist that I voluntarily put behind my back, I asked him, 'Sir, why am I being arrested?' and he replied, 'For not doing what I told you to do.' "

Another officer took Frazier down to the police station, and Montecino arrived a little later. "You're being arrested for obstructing a police officer. Your sign could have been a weapon," Montecino said, according to Frazier's complaint.

Now personally, I think "fascist" is a little strong. Fascism, according to American Heritage, is marked by "centralization of authority under a dictator, stringent socioeconomic controls, suppression of the opposition through terror and censorship, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism." I mean, Bush hasn't really invoked stringent socioeconomic controls--I'd call them "soft." Also, he's not belligerently racist. More like "surreptitiously."

In an unrelated story, Bush will name his own "independent panel" to investigate whether he lied to justify invading a nonthreatening country against international wishes.

posted by Jeff | 11:01 AM |
 

Starving the beast

The President's new budget is out, and if you guessed he might soften his ideological vigor in an election year, you'd be wrong. Grover Norquist is smiling.

The budget, as written, will put us $364 billion in the hole--but that's a pipe dream, employing calculations that revenues will increase 13.2% (the real figure is over a half trillion). In fact, like everything Bush does, it's a deeply disengenous piece of policy--a idealogical trojan horse that will further gut services to the public good while transfering revenue to corporate lackies. In other words, Bush has plenty of lies to disguise the real damage.

To wit:

He has slated military spending to increase by 7%--double the rate of spending growth overall, but defensible given we've got two wars to clean up. Except it's not 7%. That's just regular spending--the Iraq and Afghanistan expenditures aren't included (sound familiar?).

The bill is backloaded so expenditures come due after Bush leaves office. Example: his Mission to Mars farce gets only $1 billion in new funds now. Big vision my ass.

Bush wants to make tax cuts permanent, which is essentially one of those no-interest-payments-'til-2010! deals, after which the massive bill comes due. While Bush is vacationing safely in Barbados.

Of course, even the Prez's own numbers are grim, so that means cuts to all those nasty government agencies Grover so despises. Leaving aside non-discretionary funds (the accounts Bush isn't allowed to raid and give to the rich) and the military, the fat left to cut must come from less than 18% of the total budget. The result will mean elimination of 65 federal programs, and substantial cuts to seven of the 16 cabinet-level agencies. Hated agencies like the EPA and Agriculture Department are bearing the brunt. Those follow substantial cuts Bush made last year to pay for wars and tax cuts.

This is all a first-blush look at a budget released today. When the likes of Max, Brad, and Nathan get on the case, I'm sure we'll have a lot more to talk about.

posted by Jeff | 7:39 AM |


Sunday, February 01, 2004  

Since 40% of Americans will be watching football in a couple of hours, I suppose I should mention the Super Bowl.

Now that that's out of the way, something more interesting. In two months, progressives will know whom they support for President--it'll be the Dem still standing. But right now, caught in the crossfire between strategy and ideals, we still debate. Lawrence is sticking with Kucinich, even while dodgier bloggers jump ship to Dean. (According to Lawrence, Dean "has a temper, he is reckless in many of the things that he says, he is willing to waffle and over-compromise with the Republicans, he is likely to choose political calculation over principle.")

We may not agree on the prescription, but I think Lawrence has the diagnosis right (sorry--I'll quit with the docspeak once the doc's gone):

There is a big difference between politicians who cave in to the opposition for political opportunity, versus those who work out compromises based on principles, when the opposition has more votes. Had Clinton been a politician full of principle, when his health care plan got shot down, he would have come back with another, one that answered some of the criticism leveled at the first.

(Incidentally, he wrote that three weeks ago--long before Dean trashed Trippi for Neel. Looking pretty prescient, L.)

I also noticed that the Times is flogging itself.

In the last several weeks, three stories launched elsewhere have been either diminished or disregarded by The Times. (Of course, among major news organizations, this not-invented-here attitude is no more exclusive to The Times than are commas.) In each case, the effort to maintain a high level of what people around here call "competitive metabolism'' has not served the readers well.

This is from the Public Editor, who cites the examples of the Toledo Blade's story of the Tiger Force slaughter of Vietnamese villagers; the Paul O'Neill revelations, and the Post's coverage of Iraq's on-paper-only WMD arsenal.

But if I may: the Times has again missed the point. Navel-gazing and self-flagellation seems par for the course lately, but good journalism less so. In the past two years, and particularly since late 2002, the Times has been breaking fewer stories than its more ambitious colleagues. The Globe recently announced that the GOP had been (possibily illegally) eavesdropping on the Democrats. The LA Times has been a reliable source of orginal news, and the Post remains the gold standard on press critical of the President's handling of the war.

The Post, in fact, offers a nice contrast to the Times. While they endorsed the war and backed the President, they have also been the most critical of him since, including the likelihood that he misled everyone. Had the Times felt similarly guilty about backing the war, I expect we would just have received an apology. I prefer the news.

posted by Jeff | 1:08 PM |
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