| Notes on the Atrocities Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens... |
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Sunday, February 29, 2004 Grand Jeffy
The Jeffies, 2004
Movie Week
Saturday, February 28, 2004 Movie Week
Friday, February 27, 2004 Oscar Odds
The Rise of Docs
Movie Week
Thursday, February 26, 2004 A review for Passion of the Christ is going to take some thinking--for which I have not the energy at the moment. Tomorrow. posted by Jeff | 6:46 PM |I'm off to see The Passion. Review to follow. posted by Jeff | 2:50 PM |Movie Week
Wednesday, February 25, 2004 Oscar Trivia*
Movie Week
Maria Bello, The Cooler
I really wanted to like The Cooler. I like the people in it, I liked the idea of the film, and I liked the way first-time director Wayne Kramer shot the film. Unfortunately, it failed on almost every level. Even Maria Bello's role as a hard-luck casino waitress was deeply flawed. Despite the lack of cohesion from a writing level, Bello sold the role. The heart-of-gold role is usually played either vapidly or with world-weary wisdom. Bello gave it much more--her hard-luck waitress was playing out a losing hand, but she was still naive enough to believe it might change. Her sexiness wasn't played as object, but rather part of her personality. She made me believe that her character could have loved William H. Macy.
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dirty Pretty Things
In a movie almost no one saw (Man on the Train), Johnny Hallyday and Jean Rochefort give two delightful performances. I knew when I started the nominations that it was going to either have to be both or neither, because they were both so good. It's a story of odd couples where the couple are neither really so odd nor, despite appearances, so different. Hallyday plays a noirish thief, Rochefort a provincial school teacher. Their paths cross, and the lives of the other is a balm to each. The movie is itself a balm to anyone with blockbuster-itis.
Movie Week
Sean Astin in The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Neither Khleo Thomas, who played the wonderful character "Zero" Zaroni in Holes nor Zlatko Buric, as the morally neutral Ivan in Dirty Pretty Things has gotten any attention. They should: they give perfect supporting performances, adding depth and realism to a movie that doesn't seem possible without their vivid roles. Selecting anyone from Elephant is risky, because it's an ensemble piece. To the extent that John (who played the blond kid also named John in the movie) is our window into the movie, he could be called the central figure. Yet as the observer, he does play a supporting role in the narrative. Again, I can't imagine the movie without him.
I'm well aware of the lameness of this list. I might have tried to pad it a bit, just so I wouldn't look lame. But the truth is, this is really represents the performances I thought were worthy of mention (Maria Bello, who gave a great performance in The Cooler, was sometimes nominated in this category. I don't see how--she was clearly in the lead.)
I've got an early deadline this morning; by mid morning I should have a post up on the great performances of the year.
Tuesday, February 24, 2004 The Golden Neo
Ebert: "It simply looks at the day as it unfolds, and that is a brave and radical act; it refuses to supply reasons and assign cures, so that we can close the case and move on."
Some great films are universally loved and acclaimed--The Godfather, for example. Elephant is in a second category of art: the controversial. In many ways, making a controversial film is harder than making a great film--finding that ribbon of gray area and exploiting it effectively is a tall order. Subtle changes in emphasis can turn a controversial film bad pretty easily.
Movie Week
Monday, February 23, 2004 There was a fairly decent group of good movies this year, but only four I actually considered as candidates for the Grand Jeffy. The first candidate arrived in the fall, when I saw American Splendor, the most original American film I've seen since Memento. Here's a review that originally appeared at Open Source Politics.
Movie Week
MOVIE WEEK
Sunday, February 22, 2004 You already knew this, but now it's official: Consumer advocate Ralph Nader told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday he will run again for the presidency, declaring that Washington has become “corporate occupied territory” and arguing there is too little difference between the Democratic and Republican parties.
My take, which is far from unique, is that this won't make a whit of difference. Without even the auspices of the Green Party, poor Ralph will be running alone and against most of his most ardent supporter's wishes. The worst thing about this news is that Nader's legacy, which is rich and wonderful, may be forever marked by his quixotic political campaigns.
Saturday, February 21, 2004 This is a little random, but as I wean myself from hard politics in anticipation of MOVIE WEEK on Monday (mark your calendars), let me draw your attention to the latest incursion on the written word: the SAT test. Yes, that venerable, derided, friend-to-the-white-and-wealthy test now includes a written component. Seems like a good idea on the face of it, right? Had I been offered a written component back in 1985, it might have mitigated my abysmal 480 math score.
We and our colleagues at The Princeton Review have spent many years training students to take the SAT II, and have carefully analyzed the College Board's essay-grading criteria. To receive a high score a student should write a long essay of three or more paragraphs, with each paragraph containing topic and concluding sentences and at least one sentence that includes the words "for example." Whenever possible the student should use polysyllabic words where shorter, clearer words would suffice. The SAT essay will not be a place to take rhetorical chances. Flair will win no points; the highest-scoring essays will be earnest, long-winded, and predictable.
On a personal note, I knew of the SAT's failings even before seeing this article, because a twin version appears on the grad school version, the GRE, which my significant other (Sally) took late last year. She didn't do as well as she would have hoped. This isn't surprising, because she's a fantastic writer. Her prose is original, clear, and accessible--just what the College Board now instructs its graders to punish.
The Post today has trenchent observations on the recess appointment of William Pryor. THE NOMINATION of Alabama Attorney General William H. Pryor Jr. to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit was, from the beginning, a provocation on the part of the Bush administration. Yesterday Mr. Bush made that provocation all the more provocative by installing Mr. Pryor -- who has been held up by a Democratic filibuster -- by recess appointment. Mr. Pryor is the second judge the president has placed on the bench using this procedure, which allows the president to bypass Senate confirmation for appointments made on a temporary basis. The result is that Mr. Pryor will be a judge for now, but he will leave office unless both Mr. Bush and a filibuster-proof Republican Senate majority win election this year. In other words, his prospects of longer-term service on the bench will be bound up with the electoral fate of the Republican Party -- exactly the sort of political dependency from which judges are supposed to be insulated. Friday, February 20, 2004 Another Friday, another news dump. Mister Trustworthy, our President, does all his dirty work late Friday to ensure two cooling-off days before he gets hammered. Today's atrocity? Read all about it: (AP) -- Bypassing angry Senate Democrats, President Bush installed Alabama Attorney General William Pryor as a U.S. appeals court judge on Friday in his second "recess appointment" of a controversial nominee in five weeks.
Pryor is a leading architect of the recent states rights or federalism movement to limit the authority of Congress to enact laws protecting individual and other rights. He personally has been involved in key Supreme Court cases that, by narrow 5-4 majorities, have restricted the ability of Congress to protect Americans rights against discrimination and injury based on disability, race, and age. Worse, he has urged the Court to go even further than it has in the direction of restricting congressional authority. Just last month, for example, the Court, in an opinion by Chief Justice Rehnquist, rejected Pryors argument that the states should be immune from lawsuits for damages brought by state employees for violation of the federal Family and Medical Leave Act.
You think Bush is trying to send a message to Massachusetts and San Francisco (and the entire Democratic electorate)? Things are getting ugly... Via Atrios we get this news from the New York Times. Is cooking a hamburger patty and inserting the meat, lettuce and ketchup inside a bun a manufacturing job, like assembling automobiles?
Sound familiar? Listen: The Labor Department today announced a change in the way jobs will be classified. The Department called it an effort to reflect changes in the workforce over the past twenty years. The last time jobs were reclassified was in 1978, before computing altered the workforce.
I wrote that two weeks ago as part of my regular Friday satire series. Is that freakin' CREEPY or what? John Kerry is not a Rat Bastard
"Kerry strikes me as just another side of the same old, tired coin. He's a war criminal, he's in tight with corporations, he's pro-war..."
After a pretty nice honeymoon with the voters, one of the Johns is about to enter the phase of shock and awe--a fair amount of which will be friendly fire. Great.
Scott McClellan's grilling this week inspired today's post. Happy Friday satire--
Thursday, February 19, 2004 "I think it is what it is."
Well, there's no arguing with that. On Saturday, I saw a documentary called My Architect at the Portland International Film Fest (which is quietly becoming one of the better film fests in the country). It is a personal account of the architect Louis Kahn, made by his son Nathaniel. It's a great film, and I give it my highest recommendation, should the opportunity to see it in your city present itself. But this isn't a film review.
Although two or three of the candidates might quibble, possibly the biggest loser in the primaries so far is organized labor. Wes Clark won more states this year than labor's two darlings, Dean and Gephardt. John Edwards, friend of the workin' man, is quitely winning the hearts of workers who feel disquieted by the wealth and corporate connections of the John Kerry. And Kerry, meanwhile, has been picking up the lion's share of labor's subsequent re-endorsements--which probably dooms him to a surprising upset.
Our governement has been taken over by crooks. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the new millennium's Boss Tweed: [House Majority Leader Tom] DeLay has made plans to use a nonprofit, tax-exempt charitable foundation created by him and operated by his daughter and several of his associates to fund political events at the Republican National Convention over Labor Day weekend. DeLay weakened House ethics rules last year, ending bans on free trips to and lodging at charity events where lawmakers mingle with lobbyists and businesspeople. His latest maneuver could free both political parties to use captive charitable organizations as vehicles for off-the-books influence peddling.
Wednesday, February 18, 2004 Everyone's piling on the President for backing off his jobs promise. I won't let that stop me from joining the fray.
The President will not be satisfied until every American looking for work has found a job. (Bold theirs.) President Bush, ladies and gentlemen: dissatisfied.
Q Can you answer the specific question, though? Was this report -- was the prediction of this many jobs, 2.6 million jobs, vetted prior to publication by the entire economic team?
You can almost hear McClellan mutter under his breath "hey, these lame responses worked when Ari fed them to you; why are you comin' after me?" Bush today took another swipe at gay marriage, hoping desperately to wedge himself up. "I have watched carefully what's happening in San Francisco, where licenses were being issued, even though the law states otherwise," Bush said. "I have consistently stated that I'll support law to protect marriage between a man and a woman. Obviously these events are influencing my decision." Never mind that he was probably exaggerating this claim. (More likely, he was unaware of San Francisco until one of his advisors mentioned they were marryin' off gays there. But I digress.) What burns my bacon is the following statement : "I am troubled by activist judges who are defining marriage."
Dean, who is apparently announcing the end to his campaign even as I type, posted this note on his blog this morning: In the coming weeks, we will be launching a new initiative to continue the campaign you helped begin. Please continue to come to www.deanforamerica.com for updates and news as our new initiative develops. There is much work still to be done, and today is not an end--it is just the beginning.
Youth
Tuesday, February 17, 2004 It's your money (and it's going into the Man's pocket)
Apropos of that Dean post, I should mention that Joe Trippi now has his own blog. It's called Change for America, and reading through the few posts he has up, I'm wondering if maybe he's not the guy who will organize the people. Good stuff. Go have a look. posted by Jeff | 12:31 PM |I'd like to draw your attention to a couple of posts on my local blog.
Although I have no credibility on the issue anymore, I nevertheless have a few thoughts about Howard Dean. In the event that he doesn't win Wisconsin today, he will be presented with a valuable opportunity. It won't seem like it to a man who felt he was a whisker away from the White House. But if he steps back and looks at the situation, he might realize his role as an outsider is far more valuable than as an insider (one could reasonably call that the central lesson of his campaign).
Monday, February 16, 2004 "The tax relief was a vital part of this economic recovery."
Much like "relief" here has a specific definition, I think we shoud recall what a Bush "recovery" looks like. Imagine these graphics. Two pie charts, side by side. In the first, all federal tax income, divided to include corporate and individual taxes, the latter divided by quintile. That one dated 1999. The second pie chart contains the same slices, but is dated 2003.
David Neiwart, at both his site and the American Street, wonders just how dirty Republicans will get in the upcoming year: Of even greater concern, though, is the kind of emerging conservative rhetoric that paints liberals not only as "desperate" but evil vermin who deserve to be exterminated. (Answer: as dirty as their creativity permits. It's going to be a back-alley knife fight.)
Observant readers may already have noted that the guiding principles to which I've alluded--flinty individualism, the vision of a zero-sum society in which no one can win unless someone else loses, the conviction that altruism and compassion are signs of folly and weakness, the exaltation of solitary striving above the illusory benefits of cooperative mutual aid, the belief that certain circumstances justify secrecy and deception, the invocation of a reviled common enemy to solidify group loyalty--are the exact same themes that underlie the rhetoric we have been hearing and continue to hear from the Republican Congress and our current administration. If Democrats wish to defend themselves against this approach, they have several options, most of them bad. They can respond in kind--but unlike the group loyalty GOP overloards can expect, Dems will get a bronx cheer from their own camp, and drive waffling Republicans back to George. They can ignore the attacks, which is the classic Daschle Maneuver. But smiling and praising the guy who's carving you up in a knife fight has shown to have its flaws as well.
Poor Dean. Here's what one of his senior staffers said yesterday: "If Howard Dean does not win the Wisconsin primary, I will reach out to John Kerry unless he reaches out to me first." Ouch. (That's some discipline in the Dean camp, no?) posted by Jeff | 8:13 AM |A reminder, next Monday begins Movie Week here at Notes. Mark it on your calendars-- posted by Jeff | 8:09 AM |Sunday, February 15, 2004 Nation Building, Part 3
The dominant theme of American politics since the nineteen-sixties has been freedom: cultural freedoms under Democrats, economic freedoms under Republicans. The pursuit of happiness became a private affair, and the sense of civic responsibility withered among liberals and conservatives alike. The political choice was between two versions of hedonism. In the conservative case, ideological creep has led to a kind of democratic totalitarianism in which the urge to democratize comes at the point of a sword. The US no longer participates in international democratic institutions and foreign policy has become the "coalition of the billing"--the US dragging along whomever it can buy off. Thus the conservative vision offers conquered nations little hope of self determination. Weakened vassal state are dependent on their "liberators," and countries like Afghanistan and Iraq have little choice but to accept democracy on American terms.
Certain mental traits that have spread among Democrats since the Vietnam War get in the way--not just the tendency toward isolationism and pacifism but a cultural relativism (going by the name of "multiculturalism") that makes it difficult for them to mount a wholehearted defense of one political system against another, especially when the other has taken root among poorer and darker-skinned peoples. Liberals, for very different reasons, have not been willing to put in the effort to rebuild democracies, either. Stung by past quagmires, they are unwilling to stick around and do the hard work, hoping that liberation will become the source of democracy. Their impetus is further limited by the relatively smaller bump they receive in the polls at home.
Saturday, February 14, 2004 Meanwhile, Bush dumped two inches of documentation that--ah, well, that doesn't clarify anything. An initial review of the more than 300 pages found no additional documentation about why Bush went months without attending required drills while he was living in Montgomery, Ala., and at his home base in Houston between May 1972 and May 1973.
Although this story continues to explode (Google News article count: 2,030--a 30% increase since Wednesday), I'm ambivilent about its significance. I imagine everyone more or less thinks the following scenario is pretty close to the truth: George Bush, a young man with no taste to die in an unpopular war, took advantage of his Daddy's position to get in the Guard. Once there, he farted around and did the minimal amount of work until, as the war was essentially over, he took advantage of an early exit. Big whoop.
1992: Matt Drudge reports a rumor that a Democratic presidential candidate has had an affair and it becomes a media storm. 2004: Matt Drudge reports a rumor that a Democratic presidential candidate has had an affair and...nobody reports it.
Friday, February 13, 2004 Contest!!!
"Everyone may wear dresses so long as they are women." Happy hunting.
BUSH ADMITS ABSENCE: "I WAS WITH MOTHER THERESA"
While I work on some satire, what's the scuttlebutt on Drudge's rumor about Kerry and an intern? Intrigue surrounds a woman who recently fled the country, reportedly at the prodding of Kerry, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.
Apparently the Post is denying it. Leonard Downie Jr., executive editor of The Washington Post, acknowledged that his staff had begun to dig deeper into the life and career of Kerry, but said he had not heard anything about an alleged infidelity. "What we're finding, I don't know," he said. "This is the first we are looking into him this way." Clark today endorsed Kerry, so that doesn't exactly square with the Drudge report. More? Thursday, February 12, 2004 After a year of outrage fueled by MoveOn, blogs, and Howard Dean, here we are again: with an old Washington insider as the (presumptive) Democratic nominee. We had a shot at populists and liberals like Kucinich, Edwards, and Dean, and we ended up with a guy more heavily enmeshed with special interests than anyone else in the US Senate.
I have an extra copy of the White House Inc. Employee Handbook. I'd be happy to forward it along to someone out there (I'd even pay for postage).
The Center for American Progress found an interesting passage in ABC's "The Note": Like every other institution, the Washington and political press corps operate with a good number of biases and predilections.
A familiar charge. Bernie Goldberg has turned this view into a cottage industry since he published Bias. Let's leave this question aside for the moment. "The Note" extends the argument: The press, by and large, does not accept President Bush's justifications for the Iraq war -- in any of its WMD, imminent threat, or evil-doer formulations. It does not understand how educated, sensible people could possibly be wary of multilateral institutions or friendly, sophisticated European allies.
CAP refutes the claim in pointed language--fairly predictably; I don't think I need to quote it here. I'm actually more interested in this charge as it stands. I'm wondering, where is this powerful cabal of "Washington and political press corps" "The Note" references?
Wednesday, February 11, 2004 "See, tax relief can be used to spend, and that's good, because it increases consumer demand, but tax relief also is being saved by a lot of our families, and that savings are really important in a society that rests upon the flow of capital."
Yesterday at about this time, I ran a search on Google News of the words "Bush" and "AWOL." Total: 910. I ran the same search just now. Total: 1420.
Iraq's in the toilet, the economy looks good--but only if you're rich, and Osama's still runnin' free. If you're the President, what do you run on? Gay marriage.
I'd like to draw your attention to an article in the New Yorker about the intertwining of Halliburton and the federal government (and Dick Cheney's role). I, among others, have long regarded this cozy relationship one of sophisticated and legal profiteering (see here, here, and here) and wondered why it wasn't causing more outrage. Even as I wondered why Congress wasn't passing more stringent anti-profiteering laws to protect the American taxpayer, Congress was busy weakening already existing ones.
Unlike government agencies, private contractors can resist Freedom of Information Act requests and are insulated from direct congressional oversight. Private companies ... can conceal details of their missions from public scrutiny in the name of protecting trade secrets. They are also largely exempt from salary caps and government ethics rules designed to protect policy from being polluted by politics. Halliburton has already been accused of fraud. How do Americans discover the truth? It's not clear they can.
Halliburton has no such constraints. The company made political contributions of more than seven hundred thousand dollars between 1999 and 2002, almost always to Republican candidates or causes. In 2000, it donated $17,677 to the Bush-Cheney campaign. Indeed, the seventy or so companies that have Iraq contracts have contributed more money to President Bush than they did to any other candidate during the past twelve years. Does contracting make it too easy to conduct war?
There are some hundred and thirty-five thousand American troops in Iraq, but [retired Air Force colonel Sam] Gardiner estimated that there would be as many as three hundred thousand if not for private contractors. He said, "Think how much harder it would have been to get Congress, or the American public, to support those numbers." Inadvertently, privatizing military operations has begun to drive foreign policy. One wonders who's on the hook if Iraq gets too messy and expensive and Congress turns off the spigot. Will Halliburton pack up and go home? What if it gets too dangerous to do business and Halliburton pulls out?
The United States had concluded that Iraq, Libya, and Iran supported terrorism and had imposed strict sanctions on them. Yet during Cheney?s tenure at Halliburton the company did business in all three countries. In the case of Iraq, Halliburton legally evaded U.S. sanctions by conducting its oil-service business through foreign subsidiaries that had once been owned by Dresser. With Iran and Libya, Halliburton used its own subsidiaries. The use of foreign subsidiaries may have helped the company to avoid paying U.S. taxes. Who's working for whom?
The Department of Defense?s decision to award Halliburton the seven-billion-dollar contract to restore Iraq?s oil industry was made under "emergency" conditions. The company was secretly hired to draw up plans for how it would deal with putting out oil-well fires, should they occur during the war. This planning began in the fall of 2002, around the time that Congress was debating whether to grant President Bush the authority to use force, and before the United Nations had fully debated the issue. In early March, 2003, the Army quietly awarded Halliburton a contract to execute those plans.
The enmeshment between the White House and the company was invisible to Congress, who was learning after the fact what the score was. In fact, the Halliburton contract was actually driving policy, not responding to it. Should the Congress have known this? Should Americans have understood this relationship?
Tuesday, February 10, 2004 Kerry cruises and Clark quits. "Our goal remains the same, to change the direction of our country and bring a higher standard of leadership to the White House," Clark said. "And there is no party more committed to that effort and there is no party more committed to the people than this party, my party, the Democratic Party."
And in other news, this is how part of the US Constitution will read if George Bush has his way:
"Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution or the constitution of any State, nor state or federal law, shall be construed to require that marital status or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon unmarried couples or groups."
All right, this is odd. Today Penguin Putnam sent me a second of the White House Inc. Employee Handbook. Hmmm... posted by Jeff | 9:07 PM |I know you're bored about the election, but here are a few tidbits:
The question of whether Bush went AWOL while serving in the National Guard is well-covered (currently 910 sources on a Google News search). Kevin Drum, who's become the point man on it (I saw he was quoted by the Washington Post and Chicago Tribune) has all the relevant info. In the mad rush to spin the story (it's possible only Bush knows the whole truth), people are theorizing some pretty grand things. I suggest that we just watch it unfold. That Bush--the man who led the country to two wars and whose administration has publicly questioned Democratic patriotism--is defending himself against charges of having gone AWOL in an earlier war is pretty shocking stuff.
A last word on the last man to be sentenced in the "Portland Seven" case. Yesterday Maher "Mike" Hawash was given seven years for "aiding the Taliban" (actually, it was a bizarre attempt to aid the Taliban--he never got closer to Afghanistan than Western China). It was an emotional case in Portland--a stage play of the larger drama we see nationally regarding terrorism, Islam, race, and the legal system.
The United States does not casually or capriciously charge its own citizens with providing support to terrorists. But the terrorist attacks on September 11th, 2001, serve as a constant, stark reminder that America has enemies in the world . . . and sometimes the enemies are here at home. The plea agreements in the Portland case would have been more difficult to achieve, were it not for the legal tools provided by the USA Patriot Act. Yesterday, Ashcroft called it a "defining day in America's war on terrorism." But he didn't mention that none of the defendants were being tried as terrorists, nor that laws pre-dating the Patriot Act would be used to prosecute them. In fact, one could argue that the Portland Seven were the perfect example of why the Patriot Act isn't necessary.
Monday, February 09, 2004
What if the Unthinkable Happens?
Also, in Maine: 50% of municipalities reporting (200 out of 403)
Fifteen percent for DK? Holy Moly! This is after he finished third in Washington (more distantly, with 8% of the vote). I'm not going to seriously argue that Kucinich is on the move here, but as the candidates thin out, Kerry emerges as the de facto candidate, and Dean sinks to his doom, progressives are now shifting votes to the true liberal. (It's really too bad Lieberman didn't carry his Joe-mentum through the weekend; I'd have loved to see him getting beaten by Dennis.)
Odd: List of Grammy Award Winners
I was out of town this weekend, and I'm just getting caught up on the news. I'm of course interested in the Bush interview, regretting that I didn't get to see it live (see Drum, eRobin, Jake, and Jesse for cogent analysis). The AWOL story is also exploding with a post containing some of the relevant Bush documents, again at Calpundit (negating the need, apparently, for any other blogs). So there's much to read.
Friday, February 06, 2004 Today's one of those funny days when everyone's thinking the same thing.
The trouble is that accepting that excuse requires forgetting a lot of recent history. By February 2002, when the administration released its fiscal 2003 budget, all of the bad news — the bursting of the bubble, the recession, and, yes, 9/11 — had already happened. Yet that budget projected only a $14 billion deficit this year, and a return to surpluses next year. Why did that forecast turn out so wrong? Because administration officials fudged the facts, as usual.
Yes, that first paragraph was Krugman, the second EJ. Editorial mind meld. But wait, still on the budget deficits, Brad DeLong, writing for the Center for American Progress, picks up the thread. You'll have an easy time finding the Bush administration's official deficit forecast for 2009: $237 billion.... You'll find news reporters writing with a straight face about Bush's "confidence" that the deficit can be halved by 2009 alongside big boosts in Defense and Homeland Security spending and the extension of all the Bush tax cuts. Finally, we conclude with the Economist, the sorriest mag in the world (they've been beating themselves up since endorsing Bush in 2000). If this all looks too good to be true, it is. For once, the administration has not fiddled the books by relying on unrealistically high growth rates in the coming years; but it has relied on other fibs. For a start, the budget does not factor in the future costs of keeping soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan: even Mr Bush's own budget director says costs could be as much as $50 billion for Iraq alone in 2005. Then the usual implausible savings are found from “waste, fraud and abuse”. Third, all the president's cuts are to fall on the one-fifth of the total budget that counts as domestic discretionary spending—hardly likely to happen in an election year. Read those four paragraphs in a row, and you'll see they could all have come from the same article. And when Paul Krugman and the Economist are writing the same article about Bush's budget, you know something's up. According to David Corn, Tim Russert's going to have Bush on Meet the Press for a full hour this weekend. (Bush has always liked Russert--four years ago he wanted to just dispense with the debates and go on "Russert's show.") Corn has eight questions he'd like to hear Russert ask. The first four deal with Iraq--no surprise there (eg. "In October 2002, during a speech in Cincinnati, you said that Saddam Hussein had a "massive stockpile" of biological weapons.... Did you overstate the intelligence?"). Bush should certainly be grilled long and hard on those questions. The next three are about Bush's National Guard experience (again, a rich source of questioning). And the last one is about abortion.
The Labor Department today announced a change in the way jobs will be classified. The Department called it an effort to reflect changes in the workforce over the past twenty years. The last time jobs were reclassified was in 1978, before computing altered the workforce.
Thursday, February 05, 2004 Nation Building, Part 2
This is shaping up to be a bad day for Dick Cheney. First, from the Post, we learn that CIA Director George Tenet yesterday fired back at the administration for heaping the blame for claims about WMD at the CIA's feet. Contradicting White House hawks (among whom Dick was the standard bearer), Tenet said: ...the country had illegal missiles, as well as the ability and intent to quickly produce biological and chemical weapons.
The even bigger news, however, is a report that the Valerie Plame leaks came from two aides in Cheney's office--and one of them was chief of staff "Scooter" Libby. Josh Marshall's following the story and claims to be "sitting on some other key developments in the case." So stay tuned. While most of the nation watched the primary results on Tuesday, in Oregon we had bigger fish to fry. Voters were considering a ballot measure that second-guessed the state legislature's decision to raise taxes and bring in $800 million over the next two years.
Nation Building, Introduction
Wednesday, February 04, 2004 Fun: offense.
More budget hanky-panky
The budget purports to resurrect the “Pay-As-You-Go” rules that played an important role in moving the nation from deficits to surpluses in the 1990s.... The Pay-As-You-Go rules enacted as part of the 1990 Budget Enforcement Act, and signed into law by the President’s father, required that any entitlement expansions or tax cuts be fully paid for through offsetting entitlement cuts or tax increases.
And thus the ideological attacks on the poor and middle class are hidden in a rules change deep within thousands of pages of governmentspeak. While I try desperately to write around the demise of my (new) candidate, let me distract you by offering a stat. Below are the total number of Americans who voted yesterday for Al Sharpton and Joe Lieberman, respectively. Al: 48,903
(By comparison, John Kerry got 86,751 votes in South Carolina, where he finished a distant second.)
For the second week in a row, rank-and-file Democrats have spoken loud and clear: The Democratic Party is moderate, middle-class, and motivated by hope, not anger. Sen. John Kerry firmly established himself as the big comeback story of the nominating process. He won a second straight victory by following the path urged on Democrats by the original Comeback Kid, President Bill Clinton: showing the country not just what Democrats are against, but what they are for. That's an interesting pirouette, but what about Joe? He was the true moderate--Kerry, recall, is the candidate Global Stewards gave the highest "liberal quotient" rating. He received a 93%, with Joe pulling up the rear at 76%. (John Edwards was third at 88%).
Tuesday, February 03, 2004 Based on tonight's results, I'd like to announce that I am switching endorsements. From here on, I'm all for John Edwards.
Predictions I can live with
I know this has been a thin day for original content. Mainly it's because I'm pretty much agog at how some media organizations looked in the mission statement and discovered it included journalism. After three years of dutifully reprinting White House press releases, a few reporters have managed to work actual reportage into the news holes. In 1972, Bush went AWOL. The Post apparently feels this is now relevant. (I've highlighted some of the juicier bits.) A review of Bush's military records shows that Bush enjoyed preferential treatment as the son of a then-congressman, when he walked into a Texas Guard unit in Houston two weeks before his 1968 graduation from Yale and was moved to the top of a long waiting list.
All of this is, of course, well-documented, and is well-known to those of us who care if our President is a layabout liar. It has, however, not been well-reported. Any more of this and bloggers might be in trouble. The dubious premises on which the President's dubious policies teeter are finally getting some scrutiny from the national press. Listen to what the editorial pages had to say about the "budget."
Sometimes you can only ride a horse so far. The weight of the current Bush budget is making that neocon horse start to wheeze. Listen to the following exchange from the Newshour, and I think you have a sense of what the GOP is going to be up against in the coming year. First is Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota, the ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee. What's fictitious about it is when the president says he's going to cut the deficit in half over the next five years. He is not. He's not going to come close to cutting it in half. He gets that by just leaving out big things that he's going to spend money on, like the continuing war on terror, he leaves out that he's going to take every penny of Social Security surplus over the next decade, all that money is going to have to be paid back. He's doing the same thing to the Medicare trust fund. And on and on it goes. He pays for the alternative minimum tax problem in the first year, but no year after that.
To this responds Iowa Congressman Jim Nussle, chairman of the House Budget Committee, weakly: Well, the president of the United States received when he took office a deficit with regard to job creation in this economy. We inherited a recession. He inherited a security deficit from the previous administration that had gutted homeland security and gutted national defense....
You see the problem, don't you? The GOP doesn't really have a response to the ballooning budgets because they can't blame it on the Democrats. Blame, obfuscation, and misdirection are the game plan of the GOP. Problem is, these work a whole lot better when you're not actually passing laws.
MARGARET WARNER: All right, let me ask Congressman Nussle. You said you'd like to see further cuts and do you have many conservative Republicans who are upset about this level of deficits. How are you going to manage all that, and are you going to try to put in even greater cuts than the president is proposing on the domestic side?
Spine indeed.
Monday, February 02, 2004 Via DF, who used the opportunity to crow that he'd predicted Kerry weeks ago, we have new Gallup numbers: Kerry: 53%
Seems the lies and tax cuts are finally starting to take their toll. Apparently my comments aren't working for everyone. They seem to work for me, but apologies up front if you try to post a comment and it comes back with an error message.
There are reasons why critics of the Bush regime describe it as "fascist." Last October 16, [Thomas C. Frazier] decided to take the day off to go to San Bernardino from his home in Santa Ana. His purpose, he says, was "to engage in a legal and peaceful protest" against George W. Bush. The President was in town that day at the Radisson Hotel and Convention Center to support the candidacy of now-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger....
Now personally, I think "fascist" is a little strong. Fascism, according to American Heritage, is marked by "centralization of authority under a dictator, stringent socioeconomic controls, suppression of the opposition through terror and censorship, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism." I mean, Bush hasn't really invoked stringent socioeconomic controls--I'd call them "soft." Also, he's not belligerently racist. More like "surreptitiously."
Starving the beast
To wit:
Of course, even the Prez's own numbers are grim, so that means cuts to all those nasty government agencies Grover so despises. Leaving aside non-discretionary funds (the accounts Bush isn't allowed to raid and give to the rich) and the military, the fat left to cut must come from less than 18% of the total budget. The result will mean elimination of 65 federal programs, and substantial cuts to seven of the 16 cabinet-level agencies. Hated agencies like the EPA and Agriculture Department are bearing the brunt. Those follow substantial cuts Bush made last year to pay for wars and tax cuts.
Sunday, February 01, 2004 Since 40% of Americans will be watching football in a couple of hours, I suppose I should mention the Super Bowl.
There is a big difference between politicians who cave in to the opposition for political opportunity, versus those who work out compromises based on principles, when the opposition has more votes. Had Clinton been a politician full of principle, when his health care plan got shot down, he would have come back with another, one that answered some of the criticism leveled at the first. (Incidentally, he wrote that three weeks ago--long before Dean trashed Trippi for Neel. Looking pretty prescient, L.)
In the last several weeks, three stories launched elsewhere have been either diminished or disregarded by The Times. (Of course, among major news organizations, this not-invented-here attitude is no more exclusive to The Times than are commas.) In each case, the effort to maintain a high level of what people around here call "competitive metabolism'' has not served the readers well. This is from the Public Editor, who cites the examples of the Toledo Blade's story of the Tiger Force slaughter of Vietnamese villagers; the Paul O'Neill revelations, and the Post's coverage of Iraq's on-paper-only WMD arsenal.
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