Notes on the Atrocities
Like a 100-watt radio station, broadcasting to the dozens...


Wednesday, March 31, 2004  

Gallup Poll Data

A poll conducted by Gallup last week shows some interesting results in the wake of the Clarke news. I'd say it's premature to know what effect it will have in the long term (I expect a slow erosion), but even at that, the findings are instructive.

On terrorism, his support has slipped among Democrats and Independents, which is bad news for his re-election. I don't need to remind you that he won the election by getting a half-million few votes than Gore. If he loses the battle outside his base, he loses the election.

Handling of Terrorism (Percent approving), Dec 7, March 28
Republicans: 93%, 93%
Independents: 64%, 49%
Democrats: 42%, 26%

The Clarke material is harder to interpret. The rally-around-the-President effect offsets some of Clarke's charges, but Americans are following it, and it is having an effect. Seventy percent of Americans say they're following the Clarke accusations at least somewhat closely. On believability, Gallup writes:

So far, the American public has declared the verbal sparring contest a draw -- 44% say they believe Clarke in this matter and 46% side with current Bush administration officials. Responses to this poll question are strongly partisan -- 83% of Republicans believe current Bush officials, while 76% of Democrats believe Clarke. Independents are more likely to believe Clarke (51%) than the Bush administration (36%).

Add to that that 54% of Americans think Bush could have done more to prevent 9/11 (a figure not likely to go down), and 53% think the administration's trying to cover something up, and it looks grim for Dubya in the weeks ahead.

On the other hand, his overall approval is actually up, to 53%, and he's widened his lead over Kerry.

The figures are contradictory in some ways. I think this mainly reflects the public's relative unfamiliarity with John Kerry. They don't like Bush on the one hand, but they don't know Kerry on the other (except, perhaps, what they've learned in the Bush hit pieces). So while they're distrustful of Bush, they still have no basis for trusting Kerry, either. Of course, all of this will change, and it represents a good opportunity for Kerry.

I suspect people outside the base aren't going to reverse their mistrust of the President. His mendacity and shadiness have mostly been obscured to the general public behind his mien of "defender." But now, with attacks coming from all sides, and a press more willing to call him on his obvious misrepresentations, the chickens are coming home to roost. Kerry doesn't have to be that spectacular to capture wavering allegiances. I expect to see a general weakening of the President's approval numbers this summer. (I have, lately, been so far off base on my predictions that this speculation may be the best news Bushies have gotten in a long time.)

[Update: Liberal Oasis has some excellent analysis on this and other poll numbers.]

posted by Jeff | 12:06 PM |
 

I feel compelled to inquire. What's up with the comments? Generally people don't comment when my content dips--but then so do hits. That unfailing market logic. But folks seem to be visiting reliably. So what gives?

posted by Jeff | 10:48 AM |
 

Oh No! From deep within my windowless cinderblock building, I am only barely able to hear Al Franken broadcasting the first words of Air America. I'll try to endure the high buzz and hear what Al has to say, but I don't know how long I can handle this.

So far things are going pretty well for him, but you figure he must have had it scripted fairly tightly. After the embarrassing admission about the show's name, he seems to have gotten on track. ("Many people have asked me why 'The O'Franken Factor?' For one reason and one reason only--to annoy Bill O'Reilly." Oy. Let's hope his aspirations for the show are higher than that.)

Guests who are slated to appear: Bob Kerrey (2nd hour) and Michael Moore (3rd hour). Stay tuned...

[Update: At the risk of losing my exclusive front seat at this historic event, I'll point out that you can get a feed of the show here.]

posted by Jeff | 9:02 AM |
 

Let's recap: a high-ranking official goes on 60 Minutes and creates a firestorm with accusations from a recently-published book that the administration mishandled policy. The White House retaliates, not by refuting the charges, but by slagging the character of the official and suggesting he may have committed a crime by printing some of the information in his book. No, not Richard Clarke--Paul O'Neill.

And as we're watching a second scorched earth campaign in an uncannily-similar scenario against a former administration official, it bears mentioning that last week O'Neill was cleared of wrongdoing (in news I completely missed):

Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, who painted an unflattering portrait of President Bush in a book in January, received 140 government documents for the book that should not have been released after he left office, the Treasury Department's inspector general says.

The report Monday from Jeffrey Rush Jr. said that no federal laws had been violated in the release of the documents but that Treasury needed to improve the way it handled sensitive documents....

Treasury began its investigation in January after CBS's "60 Minutes" showed a document marked "secret" during an interview in which O'Neill promoted the new book, "The Price of Loyalty."

I have no doubt that Clarke will be cleared of wrongdoing, too. If the smear campaign works well enough to keep the Bush ship afloat and he somehow manages to win re-election, I expect to see another small report, probably by year's end, clearking Clarke of wrongdoing. But hey, that's then, right?

posted by Jeff | 7:21 AM |


Tuesday, March 30, 2004  

McClellan:

This was something that the President essentially -- well, one, I think that our White House Counsel's Office is always in close contact with the commission and in close contact with the chairman and vice-chairman to talk about ways we can meet their needs. And they have remained close -- the Counsel's Office has remained in close contact with the chairman and vice-chairman.

I think the President, essentially, over the weekend decided that we should pursue this with the commission, pursue the possibility of Dr. Rice testifying publicly under oath, provided that we can uphold this important principle. It's important to protect the principle of separation of powers between the executive and legislative branch. It's a very important principle. Certainly I think that it's important to protect for future Presidents, to make sure that they can continue to receive the kind of advice and information they need from their staff to protect the American people. So that's important.

It gets worse:

Q Scott, there's a rumor today that the President brought a peanut butter and jelly sandwich for lunch. Can you confirm?

MR. McCLELLAN: The President carefully considered -- well, I think we need to look at the importance of nutrition and health. There are the berries, which I believe come from California, and the peanuts. Well, the peanuts, of course, are domestically-grown. The President has always been enthusiastic about peanuts. One thing we can say, essentially -- I mean, it's important to understand the broader context within which the sandwich, although I didn't personally see the sandwich, the reported sandwich was brought or believed to be brought. Because the President believes in nutrition. It's an important issue that the President feels very strongly about.

Okay, I made that second one up. But it was no less coherent than anything else he's been saying lately. Do you think it's possible for him to make a single, direct declarative statement?

posted by Jeff | 4:28 PM |
 

Waving the Flag

Writing at his spiffy new digs on the Washington Monthly website, Kevin "don't call me CalPundit no more" Drum wonders "why the Bush administration hasn't [just told the truth] in the case of Dick Clarke." He thereafter provides a plausible scenario about how the Clarke debacle might have played differently out had the Bushies stuck to the truth. (I should use the opportunity to opine that the Bushies have spent so much time in the spin cycle, "truth" is no longer a comprehensible concept. But I digress.)

I have a different question: who cares why? The fact is, the episode has again highlighted the achilles heel of this administration. They are incapable of ceding a point. Even when, as our newly dubbed Political Animal notes, the response is far, far worse than the initial charge. Like an enraged bull, when they see the red flag, the White House charges.

I say leave behind the psychoanalysis. I don't really care why the bull is enraged, but it seems a powerful fact that he is. Exploit it. If I were the Dems, I'd craft a "Piss off George" 90-day plan. The mechanism is clear: find credible, honest critics of Bush, and promote them. We already know NY firefighters hate Bush. Hire one of them to stand next to Kerry. The 9/11 families are alternately confused and angry. If they're the ones asking why we invaded Iraq instead of creating terror-fighting infrastructure, Bush will look ridiculous fighting back. There are so many people out there with a beef against this administration--parents of soldiers, the unemployed, the poor who have lost services, and on and on. Finding them isn't hard. What they need is a voice. Dems should be in the business of giving them opportunities to get their message out.

We know Bush can't abide criticism, so what happens next is fairly predictable.

posted by Jeff | 12:14 PM |
 

Air America

This whole liberal radio thing's a bit embarrasing, isn't it? I'm particularly embarrassed that Franken's calling his show the O'Franken Factor. Ouch--that's doesn't bode well.

On the upside, Portland's one of the four markets that gets Air America, so I can tune in tomorrow and see if it blows. Stay tuned.

[Update: Apparently Kos, Atrios, and Bill Scher are going to be on the radio tomorrow. Julia of Sisyphus Shrugged has posted a bunch of information at The American Street.]

posted by Jeff | 9:58 AM |
 

Condi gets her wish.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice will be allowed to testify in public under oath before the commission investigating the failure to prevent the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, an administration official said Tuesday.

The official said the decision is conditioned on the Bush administration receiving assurances in writing from the commission that such a step does not set a precedent, said the official speaking on condition of anonymity. It appeared the administration already had such assurances verbally in private and is confident it will get them in writing.

White House legal counsel Alberto Gonzales has sent a letter to the commission stating that Rice is prepared to testify publicly as long as the administration receives assurances from the panel that this is not precedent setting, the official said.

On Sunday she told Ed Bradley: "I would really like to do that. But there is an important principle here ... it is a longstanding principle that sitting national security advisers do not testify before the Congress. " Apparently political calculations have trumped the principle. Politics guiding policy? That's something I never expected to see from this White House...

posted by Jeff | 7:23 AM |


Monday, March 29, 2004  



There's a local blogger who managed to get a front-page profile in the Oregonian today (and well deserved at that). For anyone who wonders what effect bloggers can have on journalism, this is a must read.

At the hearing on the park exclusions ordinance, b!X takes a seat in the back row of the City Council chambers, as is his custom (despite the fact that he needs glasses and must squint to make out anything far away). At one point, microphone difficulties make it hard to hear what Commissioner Randy Leonard is saying, and b!X leans forward, straining to hear, until his torso is almost parallel to the ground.

Later, on his Web site, he paraphrased Leonard's remarks and included this disclaimer: "The specific comments were difficult to make out, since Leonard's microphone either was on the fritz, or he wasn't making use of it. But the above is the general thrust of his continuing concerns."

Leonard is an avid reader of the site, visiting at least three times a day -- even after b!X once wrote the headline "Is Leonard Literate?" Leonard frequently posts comments on "Portland Communique," (as he did on the park exclusions entry to clarify what the microphone had failed to amplify), and he has on occasion alerted b!X to stories before the rest of the Portland news media.

Do-it-yourself journalism folks--and journalism that matters. Pretty cool stuff. (Although I'm damn envious, I'm proud he hails from our fair city--they don't call us "Little Beirut" for nothin'.)

posted by Jeff | 7:58 PM |
 

All right, enough fun and games with this Clarke business. Turns out there's actually an election on. The other guy, it further turns out, unveiled his economic plan on Friday. Who knew?

(Note to the Kerry campaign: fridays are usually the day when you put out news you don't want reported. That's why it's called the "friday news dump.")

There's more than just a little John Edwards in the plan. (Is there a Las Vegas line on who Kerry will select as his running mate? Edwards must like the looks of things from this proposal.) On his website, the economic plan has the catchy title "Restoring Jobs and Rebuilding Our Economy." More:

Democrat John Kerry's economic plan unveiled Friday includes a tax hike for upper-income Americans, an end to corporate tax deferral for companies that earn profits overseas, and a five percent tax cut on the corporate rate.

"We now have a tax code that does more to reward companies for moving overseas than it does to reward them for creating jobs here in America," Kerry said.

"So, if I am elected president, I will fight for the most sweeping international tax law reform in 40 years, a plan to replace tax incentives to take jobs offshore with new incentives for job creation on our own shores," Kerry said, adding that a company that relocates overseas could avoid paying taxes "perhaps forever."

I'll have to dig around later and see what the big brains of the economic wing of the blogosphere (Nathan, Brad, Max) have to say about it. So far, they're caught up in Clarkemania with the rest of us.

posted by Jeff | 2:11 PM |
 

In my continuing series of interviews with Oregon candidates, I have a wonderful interview with Democratic candidate Ross Carroll today at the Oregon Blog. Even if you don't live in Klamath County, Oregon, you may enjoy this interview. Mr. Carroll's answers are thoughtful and generous.

For ten years, Republicans and Democrats in the Oregon legislature have honed the art of vicious attack, even while the state slides into mismanaged chaos. Let's hope the good people of Southern Oregon elect Mr. Carroll--he's the kind of leader we need.

posted by Jeff | 11:42 AM |
 

On Credibility

The sole course of attack available to the White House against Richard Clarke's allegations is personal--he's not credible. The reason, obviously, is because his allegations are true. How do we know? Oddly, we know because the administration has told us so. If his accusations were false, the administration would be attacking his argument, not his credibility. That they can't find a single false claim to attack is the very proof of the claims' accuracy.

So let's talk credibility. Immediately following Clarke's 60 Minutes appearance, the White House tried to deny that Bush even met with Clarke on 9/12. Why would the WH think this is a good argument? Not meeting with the head of counterterrorism following 9/11 is more inexplicable than asking about Iraq. But never mind that--it was a lie, anyway. Later, once the WH learned there was proof the meeting happened, they decided to cop to it. Through all of this, of course, Clarke suffered ad hominem attack after ad hominem attack--and never changed his story.

So then the WH decided to try to show a discrepancy between Clarke's book and his previous comments. Bizarrely, it played the resignation-letter card. Scott McClellan trotted out this letter, which was cordial and thanked the President, saying it proved Clarke must have thought everything was hunky dory with WH policy toward terrorism. Again, why the WH felt this argument would somehow defame Clarke is incomprehensible. But never mind--Clarke had a response. Yesterday, on Meet the Press, he produced a handwritten letter from the President praising Clarke for leaving "a positive mark on goverment" and serving the nation "with distinction and honor." Why then is the White House attacking him like he's Osama bin Laden?

Then the biggie--the WH, this time through surrogates in the Senate, demanded the declassification of Clarke's testimony in 2002 before House and Senate intelligence committees. And then yesterday, Clarke agreed, demanding that they be declassified--knowing they will exonerate him.

Along the way, the administration tried to bolster its terror-fightin' cred. In a well-choreographed media assault, White House minions argued--against all evidence--that terrorism was its highest priority leading up to 9/11. Yet even Bob Woodward's book Bush at War--which has heretofore been used by the WH at every available PR opportunity--disputes this claim. As does all relevant declassified information currently available.

Now Condi Rice, affecting a disappointed face, laments she can't appear under oath before the 9/11 committee because it would set a dangerous precedent. But dang it, she'd surely love to. I have no doubt this will backfire. The reason Condi won't testify, obviously, is because the adminstration wants to avoid culpability. It will backfire because the administration's objection is a thin legal one, not a constitutional one. (The 9/11 commission isn't an official government body. Of course Condi could appear--and would, if the WH didn't have something to hide. How do I know? See my logical proof above.)

So throughout this whole sordid mess, every single allegation by Clarke has stood unrefuted. In the meantime, every single argument offered up by the White House has been refuted, abandoned, or called into serious question by contradictory evidence and facts.

So after a week of this nonsense, I'm compelled to agree with the White House. Once again, there is a huge "credibility" problem. I am not shocked: it tends to happen when you lie through your teeth.

[More:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House may have mishandled accusations leveled by their former counterterrorism adviser Richard Clarke by attacking his credibility, keeping the controversy firmly in the headlines into a second week, political analysts said.

"The Bush administration and its allies have certainly not helped the story go away," said Howard Opinsky, a Republican operative who ran media relations for Arizona Sen. John McCain during his 2000 presidential bid.

"Instead, they adopted the risky strategy of trying to refute his charges, which makes it appear that they have something to hide," he said.

No--ya think?]

posted by Jeff | 8:09 AM |


Sunday, March 28, 2004  

Condi was on 60 Minutes tonight. Actually is on, if you're out here on the west coast. I took a peek at the transcript and saw the final exchange. Any more than that and it won't be any fun to watch.

ED BRADLEY::
But my question is, how did [Richard Clarke's] apology [at the 9/11 hearings] make you feel? Did you think he was grandstanding? Did you think it was sincere?

CONDOLEZZA RICE:
I - I'm not going to - to question what - Dick Clarke was or was not feeling. I think from my point of view, the families need to know that - everybody understands the deep loss.

ED BRADLEY::
Will the families of those people who were killed hear an apology from you? Do you think that would be appropriate?

CONDOLEZZA RICE:
The families, I think, have heard from this president that - and from me, and from me personally in some cases in that field in Pennsylvania or at the World Trade Center, how - deeply sorry everyone is for the loss that they endured. You couldn't be human and not feel the horror of that day. We do need to stay focused on what happened to us that day. And the best thing that we can do for the memory of the victims, the best thing that we can do for the future of this country, is to focus on those who did this to us.

Now, it's possible she delivered these words with some kind of Clintonian sympathy (though it would be the first time), so I don't want to jump the gun. There's been a whole lot of talk from the White House about credibility. Having read that, let me ask: who's sounding more credible right about now?

posted by Jeff | 6:23 PM |
 

Never Try to Bluff an Honest Man

"I would welcome it being declassified, but not just a little line here or there. Let's declassify all six hours of my testimony....

"Yes, and those documents I just referred to and Dr. Rice's testimony before the 9-11 Commission because the victims' families have no idea what Dr. Rice has said. There weren't in those closed hearings where she testified before the 9-11 Commission. They want to know. So let's take her testimony before the 9-11 Commission and make it part of the package of what gets declassified along with the national security decision directive of September 4 and along with my memo of January 25.

"In fact, Tim, let's go further. The White House is selectively now finding my e-mails, which I would have assumed were covered by some privacy regulations, and selectively leaking them to the press. Let's take all of my e-mails and all of the memos that I've sent to the national security adviser and her deputy from January 20 to September 11 and let's declassify all of it."

--Richard Clarke, Meet the Press, this morning

Whoops. The White House has been in spin mode so long they haven't the faintest clue which direction is up. I suppose they expected Clarke to cringe and shrink away from his record just as surely as they cringe and shrink away any time there's talk of investigating their own record. They forgot that sometimes a person goes to work, does the best job he knows how, and stands by his record. Clarke's happy to remind them.

Having seen that the President stoops quickly to personal attacks, Clarke pulled out some of his personal artillery--a letter from the President written after Clarke resigned.

"Dear Dick, you will be missed. You served our nation with distinction and honor. You have left a positive mark on our government." This is not the normal typewritten letter that everybody gets. This is the president's handwriting. He thinks I served with distinction and honor. The rest of his staff is out there trying to destroy my professional life, trying to destroy my reputation, because I had the temerity to suggest that a policy issue should be discussed. What is the role of the war on terror vis-a-vis the war in Iraq? Did the war in Iraq really hurt the war on terror? Because I suggest we should have a debate on that, I am now being the victim of a taxpayer-paid--because all these people work for the government-- character assassination campaign.

There's quite a bit of discussion about Clarke's motivation there too--though personally I find it rather tedious. If you're stupid enough to question Clarke's motivation in writing the book, but not Bush's motivation in trying to smear Clarke, there's not anything anyone can say to penetrate your ignorance.

Russert: Bush Attack Dog
It is fairly evident that Tim Russert is carrying the White House's water again--he came in armed with the most damning information available (to friends of the administration). He also repeated the most vicious of the attacks on Clarke. Through it all, Clarke responded exactly as you would expect an honest man with nothing to hide to respond. Example:

MR. RUSSERT: Forty-two family members wrote an open letter which is in the papers today saying that the book is offensive and profiteering and maximizing book sales because of September 11. What do you say to those families?

That's a low blow if ever there was one. (He doesn't mention the families who were delighted that someone--anyone--from the White House finally apologized.) Clarke would be forgiven, in my view, for punching Russert in the nose. How did he actually respond?

MR. CLARKE: Well, I say I'd like them to read it. You know, as to Senator Frist's comments, that it's filled with highly classified information, it was approved by the White House for release. And anything that the White House found in it that they thought was highly classified was removed. You know, I had a very emotional meeting with the families after the commission hearing. I had asked for their forgiveness in my testimony. And several of them came up to me and said, "I forgive you, I forgive you." It was a moment that I will never forget. And for Senator Frist to say that I didn't have the right to ask for their forgiveness, that I didn't have the right to apologize, I just think is an example of how this whole debate has gotten overheated. And I'd like to return to a level of civility here.

Further evidence of Russert water-carrying: he spent a long time rehashing the Clinton material. Russert might have had Clarke on the show to offer his own views; instead, Clarke was in the interrogation room, grilled by Russert, the White House's proxy. When Russert finally arrives at what I think is the most damning claims by Clarke--that Bush attacked Iraq even though he knew it wasn't connected to al Qaida--it's to defend against Bush counterattacks aimed at Clarke. ("Did you speak out against the war inside the government?")

He rounds off the interrogation with the Kerry charges. Clarke, again, manages them admirably.

MR. RUSSERT: In 2004 you'll vote for John Kerry?

MR. CLARKE: I'm not going to endorse John Kerry. That's what the White House wants me to do. And they want to say I'm part of the Kerry campaign. I've already pledged I'm not part of the Kerry campaign and I will not serve in the Kerry administration.

MR. RUSSERT: Will you vote for him?

MR. CLARKE: That's my business.

The Bushies may finally have run up against their worst nightmare: an honest man.

posted by Jeff | 10:37 AM |
 

This week's New Yorker takes a close look at Bush's America--Cameron County in South Texas. If you have much human decency, it's not an easy read.

From her own improvisatory childhood, Lupita knew the tricks of low-budget householding: when even Wal-Mart is out of your price range, secondhand clothes can be purchased by the pound, the pallet, or the bale; the Port of Brownsville contains enough fresh crabs for three days’ dinner, if you have a bit of raw chicken and some string to fish them out. But, as the fall of 2003 progressed, her unemployment and health benefits had expired, her 401(k) from the textile factory had been cashed out, and she was still selling lunches. The state workforce commission had predicted that twenty-five medical-assistant jobs would open in Cameron County in 2003, but it would be difficult to secure one. In one class of laid-off textile workers alone, eighty-five people had been trained for the profession.

Other Cameron Park job-seekers sustained their hopes by lighting “miracle candles” sold in local grocery stores—candles emblazoned with messages like “Select Me for the Company” or “Increase the Wages Offered.”

In George Bush's Texas (and now America), the poor and politically weak offer opportunity. It's from their meager pocketbooks thta fantastic fortunes can built.

The hundred-and-fifty-three-year-old Fruit of the Loom company, owned by Warren Buffett’s Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway, had just announced that its Cameron County factory would close by the end of the year. Much of its production would be shifted to Honduras....

Fruit of the Loom had chosen a few veteran laborers to go, briefly, to Honduras to train the cheaper workers who would replace them. Some of the others would board the meat- and poultry-industry buses that idled outside the county employment office, luring those sufficiently desperate to take short-term slaughterhouse jobs in the Ozarks. But, as Fruit of the Loom’s cutting machines and bleaching vats were cranked up on pallet jacks, loaded onto flatbeds, and hauled to the Port of Brownsville, many of the company’s workers pocketed a month’s severance and filed into Mario’s van. They applied for unemployment assistance equal to roughly half their former wages, took aptitude tests, and studied the twenty training brochures that were taped to the van’s walls.

And:

When she sold a plot, she negotiated the mortgage-payment terms and schedules, without the involvement of banks, in an arrangement known as “seller-take-back.” In a state where seventy-one per cent of the residents don’t have a checking account, let alone good credit, seller-take-back is a crucial niche in the real-estate market....

To house her family, María, in 1992, had bought a tiny lot from Elida Greenwood. The price was nine thousand dollars, with a twelve-per-cent interest rate.

Remember folks, he's a compassionate conservative.

posted by Jeff | 7:57 AM |


Saturday, March 27, 2004  

This was inevitable, yet Kerry did a fine job of letting the Bushies stew in their juices before he gave them another target.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (Reuters) - Prospective Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry challenged key White House adviser Condoleezza Rice on Saturday to testify publicly and under oath before a commission investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

Kerry accused President Bush's White House of stonewalling the commission by keeping Rice off its public witness list, and of attempting "character assassination" against its own former counterterrorism chief, Richard Clarke....

Noting that Rice planned an appearance Sunday night on CBS' "60 Minutes" program, the same forum Clarke used to attack Bush last weekend, Kerry added:

"If Condoleezza Rice can find time to do '60 Minutes' on television before the American people, she ought to find 60 minutes to speak to the commission under oath," Kerry said.

He said Franklin Roosevelt had had no problem cooperating with an investigation of America's unpreparedness for Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor in World War II, and added:

"This administration has done the opposite -- stonewalled this commission."

posted by Jeff | 3:18 PM |
 

When trying to get a handle on the assumptions of an argument, it is generally useful to flip an argument. For example, the Bushies charge Clarke with lying in his book and testimony before the 9/11 Commission. Rather than following that rabbit down the hole, flip the argument: who has the greater motivation to lie--a President in the middle of a re-election campaign, or a retired beaurocrat?

On the debate over the phrase "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance, the debate is usually framed from the point of view of the status quo--what harm is being done by inserting the phrase into the pledge? After all, it's really not a specific God, and it's really not that religious. Where's the harm in a little mention? (See, as always, the cofunsed Rich Lowry for a prime example of this argument.)

All right then, let's flip it around: what's gained by leaving it in? If it really isn't religious, how is our allegiance clarified by its insertion? And if it is religious, just non-demoninationally so, why not opt for a less obviously Christian "God"--say Brahman or Allah?

Obviously, it's an explicit statement of Christian belief. If the Supreme Court wishes to allow the phrase to remain in the pledge, it should remain in there based on it's actual purpose, not because could also function as a metaphor for some distant, constitutional concept. We have an amendment that was created specifically to answer questions like this: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion." And we have a Congressionally-created pledge doing that very thing. The math isn't particularly tough here.

Nothing is lost by removing the phrase from the pledge. Much is lost, however, by leaving it in.

posted by Jeff | 9:29 AM |


Friday, March 26, 2004  

From the office of the White House

***For Immediate Release***
RICHARD CLARKE: DISGRUNTLED CLINTONITE ON A VENDETTA?

Recently, a former junior member of the Bush cyber security team, Richard Clarke, made some unsubstantiated allegations about the administration's foreign policy--apparently to promote a new tell-all book just hitting shelves. In routine background checks made since publication of his book, the administration has uncovered some disturbing facts about Mr. Clarke. In the interest of national security, the White House feels compelled--reluctantly--to release the findings of its inquiry.

Disgruntled
Richard Clarke was once a powerful man. In the Clinton White House, he held a cabinet-level position as so-called "Terrorism Czar." In that position, Clarke lorded his might over a retinue of underlings. The soft-willed president for whom he then worked catered to his every whim. In the heyday of his power, Clarke was seen around Washington in catered cars, laughing maliciously, and chewing on thick Cuban maduros.

All that came to a crashing halt under the eagle eye of a new, vigilent adminstration. Relieved of his minions, his cars, and his cigars, Clarke was struck low, compelled to toil in a windowless cinderblock building as a mere bureaucrat surfing the net for terrorist chatter. Oh how that must have chafed the embittered Clarke!

Secret documents produced by Attorney General Ashcroft show that Clarke was merely "biding his time" until he could resign and begin work on the very book published last week. Then, the documents said, he would "wreak a just vengeance upon his tormentors."

Clintonite
Much has been made of the fact that Mr. Clarke was a Reagan appointee who worked under three Republican Presidents and two Bushes. These belie a far more sinister past. Although he did, in fact, serve Presidents Reagan and Bush, he didn't like it. Past co-workers note that he was critical of Reagan, and suggested that the "trickle down" theory may have been flawed. Of the first President Bush, Mr. Clarke regularly observed that "that 'read my lips' thing is going to bite him in the ass." While working for both presidents, Clarke was described as "dour" and "tense."

But that all changed in January 1993 when one William J. Clinton came to town. Clarke's entire demeanor changed as rapidly as his ascent up the ladder of power. On more than one occasion, staffers watched as Clarke partied with internet millionaires in the Lincoln bedroom. According to some sources, Clarke was known as "Dick Party." It was not long before cars and cigars followed.

"Dick and Bill," said an anonymous source, "were like two bugs in a rug. A dirty, stained rug."

Finally, Secret documents by Attorney General Ashcroft also show that Mr. Clarke's Republican registration was no more than a ruse--part of his diabolical plot to defame the administration George W. Bush, banisher of evil, President and loyal defender of the United States of America.

####

posted by Jeff | 12:10 PM |
 

I expect to have a bit of satire up later today. In the meantime, enjoy this bit by Brad DeLong, in which he imagines what Condi would tell the 9/11 commission.

When I took office on January 21, I was immediately confronted by a profound bureaucratic anomaly: Richard Clarke. Typically, NSC senior directors take their instructions in day-to-day matters from my deputy, Steven Hadley. When they have policy proposals, they first seek consensus on what the policy options should be from a staff-level interdepartmental working group that they chair, and then take that consensus (and whatever limited points of disagreement on what the live options are remain) to the NSC deputies committee. After the NSC deputies committee has properly framed the issues, the matter is then discussed by the NSC principals committee--made up of cabinet members--that I chair, which decides what decisions the president needs to make and how the options on those decisions are to be presented to him.

More...

posted by Jeff | 10:23 AM |
 

According to a Pew poll released today, 90% of Americans have heard of Richard Clarke. So far, it doesn't look to be having a large effect on polling numbers, but you have to think that a scenario in which Clarke's accusations help the President is obscure indeed.

posted by Jeff | 9:05 AM |


Thursday, March 25, 2004  

George W. Bush is running for re-election based principally on his foreign policy "successes." I agree, he should run on that record. But lest we get caught up in the gauzey, soft-focus patriotism of 9/11, why not review that record for what it is? What I've compiled isn't exhaustive (though it is nevertheless overlong), but I think represents the President's record fairly well.

January 20 to September 10, 2001

  • Before the election, Bush argues against "nation building" and is swept into office by -500,000 votes. "I mean, we're going to have kind of a nation building core from America? Absolutely not. Our military is meant to fight and win war. That's what it's meant to do. And when it gets overextended, morale drops."

  • Bush meets Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time, looks into his eyes and sees his soul.

  • By all accounts, the President dinks around on foreign policy, content to build up a cold-war defense in the age of terror. He begins by immediately putting Star Wars back on track. Even though NATO opposes it, the Bushies declare it necessary. It appears to contravene the ABM missile treaty, but never mind--Rummy immediately dismisses this criticism, even though a little less than a year later, the US will pull out of that very treaty.

  • Bush damages the US’s foreign policy position by thumbing his nose at international cooperation--the Kyoto agreement on environmentalism, the war crimes treaty (in 2002), and arms control treaties, including the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and the Chemical Weapons Convention.

  • On the Korean Peninsula, Bush abandons any policy, saying he’ll neither support the ‘Sunshine Policy’ nor negotiate with the North Koreans.

    September 11, 2001

  • Shortly after planes crash into the world trade center, Bush makes a brief announcement that he "unfortunately, will be going back to Washington after my remarks." Following the announcement, he leaves a Sarasota schoolroom and flies not to Washington, but Nebraska. Meanwhile, Rudolph Giuliani goes quickly to the site of the bombing and calms the nation.

  • Later that night, Bush gives the most-lauded statement of his presidency. In retrospect, it is akin to his usual speeches ("A great people has been moved to defend a great nation."), but notable for a line that is later used as a major feature of Bush policy: "The search is underway for those who are behind these evil acts? We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbor them."


    September 12, 2001 and after

  • Following the 9/11 attacks, the White House enjoys unprecedented support from around the world. It is a mood of surprising evanescence.

  • In early October, Bush cites 9/11 as the cause for proposed tax cuts. But to make sure that the economy gets the boost it needs, Congress ought to come together quickly and accept the ideas that I've just laid out. We believe that will be the best way to make sure that America recovers from the terrorist attack of September the 11th."

  • Also in early October, Bush proposes an office of Homeland Security.

  • The 342-page Patriot Act is rushed through Congress and signed by the President on Oct 26.

  • October/November - US and allies invade Afghanistan, overthrow the Taliban, and install Hamid Karzai as President. At the eve of 2002, Bush is still confident of capturing Osama bin Laden. "We're going to get him and it's just a matter of when."

  • December 14th, 2001--Bush pulls out of the ABM treaty with Russia.

  • Bush introduces a new legal concept: "unlawful combatants." In January of 2002, the first prisoners from Afghanistan are imprisoned in Guantanamo, Cuba. In all, over 600 are detained from 40 countries, none with legal standing or recourse. Rumsfeld: "As I understand it, technically unlawful combatants do not have any rights under the Geneva Conventions." World support for the Bush foreign policy declines.

  • In the State of the Union, utters the famous "axis of evil" phrase. "Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. The Iraqi regime has plotted to develop anthrax, and nerve gas, and nuclear weapons for over a decade. This is a regime that has already used poison gas to murder thousands of its own citizens -- leaving the bodies of mothers huddled over their dead children. This is a regime that agreed to international inspections -- then kicked out the inspectors. This is a regime that has something to hide from the civilized world. States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world."

    The Bush foreign policy takes a unilateralist turn, and world support for the Bush foreign policy declines further.

  • Terror gradually becomes a fuction of the Homeland Security Department, and Iraq begins to dominate the foreign policy of the President. The last time he mentions the name of Osama bin Laden publically is in October 2002.

  • The Department of Homeland Security gets off to a poor start. In March 2002, it introduces a color-coded terror alert system, but no actions are associated with the alert levels. Security Secretary Tom Ridge later suggests that people have on hand duct tape and plastic sheeting in case of terrorist attack. (Advice that's still available on the White House website.

  • More ominously, DARPA suggests an invasive information tracking system to follow the activities of citizens. Another proposal would turn public servants like postal workers into government spies. On the legal front, Attorney General rounds up Muslims, subjects "suspects" to random detainments, tortures detainees, and holds uncharged detainees on the "material witness" clause. Although the President expresses his desire for secret military tribunals, it so far remains legally or politically untenable. Source.

  • In September 2002, Bush introduces the pre-emption doctrine as part of the US policy for National Security. It claimed for the US the power to defend:

    ". . .the United States, the American people, and our interests at home and abroad by identifying and destroying the threat before it reaches our borders. While the United States will constantly strive to enlist the support of the international community, we will not hesitate to act alone, if necessary, to exercise our right of self-defense by acting preemptively against such terrorists, to prevent them from doing harm against our people and our country."

    Shortly after its introduction, Bush started pushing for an invasion of Iraq.

  • UN drafts a resolution to force Iraq to comply with weapons inspections and declare all aspects of its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs and ballistic missiles systems. Iraq complies and announces in 12,000-word document that it no longer has WMD. Inspections commence.

  • In December, North Korea reactivates its nuclear plant and two weeks later expel UN inspectors. The President, occupied by Iraq, ignores this second member of the "axis of evil."

  • The US continues to threaten an invasion, despite a wholesale lack of support from the rest of the globe and negative results from Hans Blix’s inspection team. On September 5, Colin Powell makes the case that Iraq does indeed have WMD. Eleven days later, Blix announces that Iraq has been cooperative, removing any clear casus belli on the part of the Bush Administration. Only Britain supports the US, who invades on March 19.

  • No weapons of mass destruction have ever been found. Iraq appears to have been in compliance with UN resolutions when the US and UK invaded; certainly it did not meet the criteria necessary for invasion even in the extremely liberal Bush pre-emption doctrine.

  • April 30th, Bush proposes a "roadmap to peace" in Isreal. The situation continues to worsen. Over the course of the following year, Bush attends very rarely to the situation in Israel.

  • Over the course of late 2002 through 2003, the situation in Afghanistan worsens. President Karzai becomes a target for assassination and loses effective control beyond Kabul. Terrorism becomes increasingly common, but the US can’t provide much support.

  • The situation in North Korea worsens. In February, North Korea fires a test missile; in March, it intercepts a US plane. And in July, Pyongyang announces it has enough plutonium to make 6 nuclear bombs. The President's approach is to engage in multilateral talks, though little progress has been made.

  • On May 2, 2003, with a "Mission Accomplished" banner in the background, Bush announces the end of "major combat operations" from the deck of the USS Lincoln. A day earlier, Bush dressed in a flight suit and rode in an airplane as a PR stunt. Six months later, Bush claimed the White House wasn't responsible for the sign, though he admitted they had printed it. Of course, the situation in Iraq was far from resolved.

  • Late July, rebels stage an uprising in Liberia. Bush doesn’t respond.

  • Following the war, Iraq, now destabilized, becomes a focal point for terrorists, who stream into the country.

  • In December, US forces capture Saddam Hussein in a "spider hole" in Baghdad.

  • The plan for transfer of authority to Iraq remains unclear, even as the June date approaches. 3,354 troops have been wounded in Iraq, and 690 coalition troops have been killed.

  • In the war on terror, Bush claims to have captured 2/3rds of the leaders of al Qaida, though he does not mention what new permutations of leadership may have replaced those captured. Libya recently agreed give up pursuit of terrorism, one of the President's only clear successes in the war on terror.

  • posted by Jeff | 11:38 AM |
     

    Pop quiz:
    The next time the US is attacked by terrorists, who has a direct, secure line to Department of Homeland Security (DHS)?

    A. Local first responders--police, fire departments, port officials, etc.,
    B. A consortium of public utilities,
    C. State governors, who have the responsibility for activating National Guard units,
    D. Hospitals and health care professionals, or
    E. CEOs from 150 of the nation's largest companies, like Dow Chemical, ExxonMobil, GE, Citigroup, and Bechtel.

    The answer is (E), of course, for reasons as obvious and banal as you would expect--the initiative, called CEO COM LINK, is a brainchild of the Bush White House, where the corporate interest is the only interest.

    Post continues at the American Street...

    posted by Jeff | 8:30 AM |


    Wednesday, March 24, 2004  

    Here's an interesting factoid: the last time President Bush mentioned Osama bin Laden's name publicly was in October 2002. It came during remarks after the Bali bombing. Here's the exchange:

    Q Mr. President, do you -- on that point, on Osama bin Laden, do you have a response to the letter that was put out today, allegedly under his name, praising the killing of the American Marine in Kuwait? And do you share the concerns of Senator Richard Shelby, who believes that this is, in fact, a new al Qaeda offensive?

    THE PRESIDENT: Well, I -- first, I don't know whether bin Laden is alive or dead. I -- you know, I do know al Qaeda is extremely dangerous. I do know that there are still some of his top lieutenants roaming around, and that we're doing everything we can to bring them to justice.


    posted by Jeff | 2:35 PM |
     

    This may also be hard to spin:

    Former counterterrorism official Richard Clarke sent a letter to national security adviser Condoleezza Rice one week before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks urging Bush administration aides to imagine how they would feel if hundreds of Americans were killed in a terrorist strike.

    The existence of the letter came to light in testimony on Wednesday to the national commission investigating the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon....

    "You urge policymakers to imagine a day after hundreds of Americans lay dead at home and abroad after a terrorist attack and ask themselves what else they could have done. You write this on Sept. 4, seven days before Sept. 11."

    In the letter, Clarke blasted the Pentagon and the CIA for failing to act against the al Qaeda organization.

    Wait. Scott, remind me again what Clarke's resignation letter said again? I think you really had him on the ropes with that one.

    posted by Jeff | 12:25 PM |
     

    The May Defense

    Global warming is either happening or it isn't. One of these is true. What's false is that it may be happening. "May" is a construction we use to indicate our own lack of certainty, not the ambiguity of global warming. We use "may" because, unlike gravity, it is not a proven law of science. Yet whether science can prove global warming or not is of little concern to the temperature of the air. It remains serenely unaffected by our uncertainty.

    Confronted with a question like global warming, we have the small advantage of knowing that the possibilities are limited, and we even know what the choices are: it's happening or it's not. You'd think, armed with this incontrovertable truth, that we'd agree to either address the phenomenon or not. We know what the possibilities are, and we know the arguments in favor of each. Pick one and move on, right?

    Unfortunately, in the age of Bush, we take the one course of action we know is wrong: we put our money on "may," ascribing our own uncertainty to the situation itself. Global warming? All signs point to yes, but it "may" not be happening. So let's improve CAFE standards marginally. Let's keep some pollution laws intact, but dispose of others.

    To address the terror threat, let's have a color-coded warning system that will alert us to the confidence of the "may." Green = terror threat may not be much of a worry; red = terror threat may be a really big fat worry. There's nothing to do in any case, but at least we can talk about the level of our uncertainty, as if the threat itself only partially exists.

    The economy may be bad. If so, tax cuts are the solution. On the other hand, it may also be improving. In that case, tax cuts are the solution. They may also create jobs. They may stimulate consumer purchases, which may jump-start industrial production. (Unless jobs have been shipped overseas, in which case industrial production doesn't much help us. Although you never know--it may.)

    Now we're witnessing the White House address the charges of Richard Clarke, its own head of counter-terrorism. Clarke alleges that the White House didn't take adequate precautions to prevent the 9/11 attacks; after they happened, he asserts the administration used them as an excuse to invade Iraq which, he says, they knew had no connection to 9/11. To these charges, will we see rebuttals? We will not. Instead, we've seen a magnificent display of the "may" defense. Clarke may have been disgruntled. He may not have been in the loop. He may be saying these things just to promote his book. He may be working for John Kerry. He may be a Clintonite.

    Global warming is either happening or it's not. George Bush either lied about Iraq so he could invade or he did not. We may not know the answer, but that doesn't mean there isn't one. And that may be the White House's biggest problem of all.

    posted by Jeff | 9:22 AM |
     

    Via Cursor, the Carpetbagger Report has a nice summary of some of the scandals currently facing the White House.

    In a similar fashion, tomorrow I intend to have a lengthy post about the Bush foreign policy record. He's running on that record, so we should have a closer look at it.

    posted by Jeff | 7:50 AM |


    Tuesday, March 23, 2004  

    More McClellan, this time trying to find traction with Clarke's resignation letter. (In case you were wondering what the sound of desperation was, read on.)

    MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I think we went through that yesterday. We went through a lot of the assertions that were being made. And I think maybe one thing to look back to is the Dick Clarke of January 30th, 2003, who submitted a letter of resignation on that day to the President of the United States. And I think this letter runs counter to what he is now asserting. Let me just read parts of this letter, and we'll be glad to make this letter available to you shortly here. This is in his own words.

    Mr. Clarke says, "It has been an enormous privilege to serve you these last 24 months. I will always remember the courage, determination, calm and leadership you demonstrated on September 11th." Then he went on to say, "I will also have fond memories of our briefings for you on cyber-security and the intuitive understanding of its importance that you showed. I thank you again for the opportunity to serve you have provided me, and wish you good fortune as you lead our country through the continuing threats."

    So at this time period, when he was leaving, there was no mention of the grave concerns he claims to have had about the direction of the war on terrorism, or what we were doing to confront the threat posed by Iraq, by the former regime.

    Oh my!

    posted by Jeff | 4:24 PM |
     

    It's possible that I just installed an RSS feed. It's equally as possible that I didn't. I don't really know what the damn things are, but I've been certain for weeks that I need one. I know you'll inform me of any failures.

    Carry on.

    posted by Jeff | 3:20 PM |
     

    Medicare Broke

    Medicare will have to begin dipping into its trust fund this year to keep up with expenditures and will go broke by 2019 without changes in a program that is swelling because of rising health costs, trustees reported Tuesday.

    The deteriorating financial picture for the health care program for older and disabled Americans is a result, in part, of the new Medicare prescription drug law that will swell costs by more than $500 billion over 10 years, according to the annual report by government trustees.

    posted by Jeff | 12:47 PM |
     

    Cheney is now giving a stock stump speech, similar to the one he gave last week at the Reagan Library. It looks a whole lot like the speech the President gave over the weekend in Florida.

    If you happened to see the transcripts online, you may have noticed an alarming trend. Here's an example from the Bush speech:

    THE PRESIDENT: He's following an interesting strategy. The other day, here in Florida, he claimed some important endorsements from overseas. He won't tell us the name of the foreign admirers. That's okay, either way I'm not too worried because I'm going to keep my campaign right here in America. (Applause.)

    AUDIENCE: USA! USA! USA!...

    THE PRESIDENT: It is the President's job to confront problems, not to pass them on to future Presidents or future generations. (Applause.) It is the President's job to step up and make the tough decisions and to keep his commitments. And that is how I will continue to lead our great nation. (Applause.)

    AUDIENCE: Four more years! Four more years! Four more years!...

    THE PRESIDENT: My opponent has a different view of tax relief. When we passed an increase in the child credit to help families, he voted against it.

    AUDIENCE: Booo!

    THE PRESIDENT: When we reduced the marriage penalty, he voted against it.

    AUDIENCE: Booo!

    THE PRESIDENT: When we created a lower 10-percent tax rate for working families, he voted against it.

    AUDIENCE: Booo!

    [etc.]

    Now, it's one thing to put stump speeches online. The President, as a public figure, should have all public statements catalogued. But it's quite another to include responses by an audience hand-selected by the President. Does this add anything to the transcript? Or rather, is it purely base promotion? More: is it even accurate? Was this the whole crowd? Were there competing comments? Will the White House post the audience's response when the President speaks at public gatherings (if he ever does such a thing)?

    The an official government website. Is it appropriate to sex it up like this? (That's actually an open question, not a rhetorical one. It seems slimy to me, but maybe I'm missing something.)

    posted by Jeff | 10:59 AM |
     

    It's been a long time since I've commented on what other bloggers are doing, and that's more than a small failing of mine. The blogosphere is, after all, a tapestry. My one thread isn't sufficient. Here are a few more:

    Mary Beth of Wampum discusses gas prices and the economy.

    I was relatively surprised to hear of the market's slide as I half-listened to Marketplace while preparing lamb curry for dinner. There, analysts asserted "terrorism fears" were the dominant reason for the slide, a conclusion the NYTimes supported as well. My interest, however, increased exponentially when I read the second half of the Times brief para on the subject in today's report:

    The turbulence in the Middle East discouraged equity investors already uneasy about a slow economic recovery and tepid job growth. Wall Street was also worried about decreased consumer spending due to rising oil prices. [emphasis mine]

    So I've only been blathering on about this very possibility for nigh over a year now, about every time we've seen a serious spike in prices. $40/barrel has generally been what more analysts regard as the potential tipping point back into recession, and prices have bounded above $38/barrel in recent weeks.


    (Comment: The Bushies' strategy regarding the economy--as with everything--is to isolate facts. You not only don't connect dots, but you pathologically sequester them. This is an under-reported dot.)

    In the round-up of the Sunday talk shows, Liberal Oasis points out something the Clarke obsessed (don't know who that might be) may have missed:

    On ABC?s This Week, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), was making a little confession of his own:

    I was wrong about Bush...

    ...In my many hours of discussions with him after 9/11, before we went into Iraq... I didn't think he was so fixated on Iraq.

    I didn't think he really was unrelenting, go into Iraq no matter what.

    Some people told me he was.


    And as he referred to "some people," he patted his friend Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) three times on the knee.

    Hagel didn't seem to mind, and he sought no clarification.

    (Comment: This is the secret problem the Bushies face this year--party division. As long as the economy continues to sink and foreign policy remains a muddle, GOP congressfolk are going to keep one foot on firm ground in case the Bush ship sinks. The more it lists, the more they'll be shifting their weight.)

    Bohemian Mama wants to save Angel, the TV show:

    The Save Angel Campaign got national coverage today. Quality television must be defended! Go Angel Savers!

    (Comment: Well, it's certainly a lot better than the competition.)

    In the midst of the Clarke storm, Norbizness points us to this fact (from Dana Millbank at the Post):

    In the early days after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the Bush White House cut by nearly two-thirds an emergency request for counterterrorism funds by the FBI, an internal administration budget document shows...

    ... Attorney General John D. Ashcroft, working within the White House limits, cut the FBI's request for items such as computer networking and foreign language intercepts by half, cut a cyber-security request by three quarters and eliminated entirely a request for 'collaborative capabilities.'...

    ... A draft of Ashcroft's 'Strategic Plan' from Aug. 9, 2001, does not put fighting terrorism as one of the department's seven goals, ranking it as a sub-goal beneath gun violence and drugs"

    Comment: Millbank's Clintonite scum! No, wait...)

    Suburban Guerrilla: all of it.

    (Comment: Are those footsteps Atrios is hearing? Susan's been increasingly becoming the go-to blogger for news.)

    Since I started with the economy, let me finish there. Nathan Newman talks turkey--or rather, China. And jobs. It's one of the best posts I've read on the jobs issues, and you absolutely must click here.

    Some analysts will wave away the problem, noting that China's $168 billion in exports to the United States is only a bit more than 1% of the $11 trillion US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).... But dollars are not the real issue. Jobs are. And the question is how many jobs are represented by that $168 billion in exports by China....

    So think about the US economy this way-- to produce all the goods and services Americans consume, it takes 138 million American workers and 90 million Chinese workers (plus some additional number of workers producing other imported goods) to make them.

    posted by Jeff | 8:18 AM |


    Monday, March 22, 2004  

    Presto change-o, it's not about the administration, it's about disgruntled Richard Clarke:

    MR. McCLELLAN: It appears from what I've seen that he's been more focused on the process than the substance. It appears to be more about Dick Clarke than about the substance. For the President, it's more about the actions that we are taking to protect the American people. Mr. Clarke has been out there talking about what title he had; he's been out there talking about whether or not he was participating in certain meetings. So it appears to be more about the process than the actual actions we have taken.

    I'm going to quit harping on all this soon, but indulge me. The press briefing continues:

    Q That seems a little simple, doesn't it, Scott? I mean, the process matters when you work in the White House and have to get the attention of superiors who ultimately have the President's ear to make a decision. So isn't that a little disingenuous to dismiss it as a process complaint?

    MR. McCLELLAN: Well, wait a second here. This is a gentleman that left the administration one-and-a-half years ago. Certainly let's go to the facts. These threats did not happen overnight. These threats have been building for quite some time. Go back to the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center. Go back to the 1998 attacks on United States embassies. Go back to the 2000 attack on the USS Cole. These threats had been building for quite some time. Dick Clarke was here for some eight years. This administration was here for some 230 days before the attacks of September 11th....

    Q Why do you think he's doing this?

    MR. McCLELLAN: Well, why, all of a sudden, if he had all these grave concerns, did he not raise these sooner? This is one-and-a-half years after he left the administration. And now, all of a sudden, he's raising these grave concerns that he claims he had. And I think you have to look at some of the facts. One, he is bringing this up in the heat of a presidential campaign. He has written a book and he certainly wants to go out there and promote that book. Certainly let's look at the politics of it. His best buddy is Rand Beers, who is the principal foreign policy advisor to Senator Kerry's campaign. The Kerry campaign went out and immediately put these comments up on their website that Mr. Clarke made....

    Q Scott, the whole point of his book is he says that he did raise these concerns and he was not listened to by his superiors.

    I guess we see how the White House is going to handle this. By now it's become a pretty familiar pattern. Once again someone close to the President offers a version of how things played out that is damning. It also happens to cleave very closely to the facts as we watched them play out externally. The White House obfuscates and offers alternative explanations about how things happened, and these don't look anything at all like what we saw play out. Will it further erode the President's credibility? Hard to see how it won't.

    (Now I promise to drop the Clarke business.)

    posted by Jeff | 2:53 PM |
     

    I tuned in to the Limbaugh show this morning to get a sense about how White House apologists would respond to Clarke's statements. It wasn't a pretty sight. His take: it's an attack from the Clinton administration. Roughly: "The Clinton administration and officials, with help from their friends in the media, are desperate to rewrite history to save Clinton's legacy." Ignoring the fact that Clarke was a Reagan appointee who spent 14 of 22 years in GOP administrations, Rush is hoping to convince the dittoheads he's actually a Clintonite. (It'll probably work, but who cares--the dittoheads weren't wavering toward Kerry, anyway.) From there, he minimized Clarke's influence and has tagged him a man spurned by the Bushies bent on revenge.

    Cheney spent two segments on the show, but spoke only a fraction of the time. It was a staged PR event in which Rush was allowed to assert a number of false facts while Cheney mildly backed up the President. The most salient thing he said was this (again, roughly, from memory):

    "He was the head of terrorism there [the Clinton administration] for several years, and I didn't notice they had a particularly strong effect on terrorism."

    So that's what they're saying on the fringe: Clarke's a spurned Clintonite who's lashing out because he got demoted by Bush.

    (No one, so far, seems to be rebutting Clarke's sharpest accusation: that there was no intel linking al Qaida and Iraq, and that the White House knew this, but decided to invade anyway. I wonder why?)

    [Update: Josh points us to the Limbaugh/Cheney transcript. The quote I paraphrased actually read like this: "As I say, he was head of counterterrorism for several years there in the nineties, and I didn't notice that they had any great success dealing with the terrorist threat."

    And since we have the transcript, here's Rush's feeble attempt to cast this as Clinton's fault: "[Y]ou have the Clinton administration, if they defended the country as eagerly and with as much fervor as they are attempting to defend themselves in all this, we might have -- I don't expect you to comment -- we might have escaped some of the attacks that we've had."]

    posted by Jeff | 10:59 AM |
     

    Dick Cheney is about to join the Rush Limbaugh show...

    posted by Jeff | 10:00 AM |
     

    Last night's interview with Richard Clarke did not disappoint. As a Reagan appointee and former "terrorism czar" under Clinton (a position Bush eliminated), Clarke's loaded with cred. The White House is sufficiently freaked to go on the attack (launching the dogs). They're starting with the pit bull, Condi Rice, who writes in today's Washington Post.

    It's an interesting document. Rice begins by giving a point-by-point "rebuttal" of Clarke's charges, but they essentially amount to nothing more than a "we did too prepare for al Qaida." It's not particularly convincing--but it's clearly language crafted to keep the White House on the right side of the truth. Listen:

    "We committed more funding to counterterrorism and intelligence efforts. We increased efforts to go after al Qaeda's finances.... We pushed hard to arm the Predator unmanned aerial vehicle so we could target terrorists with greater precision.... We also considered a modest spring 2001 increase in funding for the Northern Alliance."

    She goes on to make statements that do seem to run against Clarke's charges, though, and charges that will certainly be challenged in days to come.

    Through the summer increasing intelligence "chatter" focused almost exclusively on potential attacks overseas. Nonetheless, we asked for any indication of domestic threats and directed our counterterrorism team to coordinate with domestic agencies to adopt protective measures....

    Despite what some have suggested, we received no intelligence that terrorists were preparing to attack the homeland using airplanes as missiles, though some analysts speculated that terrorists might hijack airplanes to try to free U.S.-held terrorists.

    But that's not the impression Clarke, the president's lead man on terrorism, gives. Clarke:

    "George Tenet was saying to the White House, saying to the president - because he briefed him every morning - a major al Qaeda attack is going to happen against the United States somewhere in the world in the weeks and months ahead. He said that in June, July, August."

    Clarke went on to give some details of existing intel pre-9/11--including the fact that the US knew two of the suspected bombers were in the US already.

    "[Bush] never thought it was important enough for him to hold a meeting on the subject, or for him to order his National Security Adviser to hold a Cabinet-level meeting on the subject."

    "The cabinet meeting I asked for right after the inauguration took place-- one week prior to 9/11."

    Finally, Rice is forced to make one admission--and it's possibly the most damaging of all. In the 60 Minutes interview, Clarke accused the White House of immediately trying to use 9/11 as an excuse for invading Iraq. Rice rebuts this, but admits:

    Once advised that there was no evidence that Iraq was responsible for Sept. 11, the president told his National Security Council on Sept. 17 [2001] that Iraq was not on the agenda and that the initial U.S. response to Sept. 11 would be to target al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

    So the White House had recieved intelligence that there was no connection between 9/11 and Iraq. Why then did the administration continue to promote those links? Why then does Dick Cheney continue to promote those links?

    posted by Jeff | 7:42 AM |


    Sunday, March 21, 2004  

    Bracing for the Dog Launch

    A more complete article with the Clarke reports about 9/11 and Iraq is here. Excerpts:

    Clarke, who is expected to testify Tuesday before a federal panel reviewing the attacks, writes in a new book going on sale Monday that Bush and his Cabinet were preoccupied during the early months of his presidency with some of the same Cold War issues that had faced his father's administration.

    "It was as though they were preserved in amber from when they left office eight years earlier," Clarke told CBS for an interview Sunday on its "60 Minutes" program....

    Clarke acknowledges that, "there's a lot of blame to go around, and I probably deserve some blame, too." He said he wrote to National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice on Jan. 24, 2001, asking "urgently" for a Cabinet-level meeting "to deal with the impending al-Qaida attack." Months later, in April, Clarke met with deputy cabinet secretaries, and the conversation turned to Iraq.

    "I'm sure I'll be criticized for lots of things, and I'm sure they'll launch their dogs on me," Clarke said. "But frankly I find it outrageous that the president is running for re-election on the grounds that he's done such great things about terrorism. He ignored it. He ignored terrorism for months, when maybe we could have done something...."

    "Now he never said, 'Make it up.' But the entire conversation left me in absolutely no doubt that George Bush wanted me to come back with a report that said, 'Iraq did this,'" said Clarke, who told the president that U.S. intelligence agencies had never found a connection between Iraq and al-Qaida.

    "He came back at me and said, 'Iraq! Saddam! Find out if there's a connection,' and in a very intimidating way," Clarke said....

    "Bin Laden had been saying for years, 'America wants to invade an Arab country and occupy it, an oil-rich Arab country.' This is part of his propaganda," Clarke said. "So what did we do after 9/11? We invade ... and occupy an oil-rich Arab country, which was doing nothing to threaten us."

    posted by Jeff | 12:14 PM |
     

    See, I told you Gonzaga was going to win it all.

    (You'd think that after my prediction about Howard Dean, I'd have learned. You'd think.)

    posted by Jeff | 8:10 AM |


    Saturday, March 20, 2004  

    Cognitive Dissonance*

    1. Thousands of protesters turned out nationwide Saturday to mark the first anniversary of the start of the U.S.-led war on Iraq and call for the removal of American troops from the Middle East country.

    A Manhattan rally was one of 250 anti-war protests scheduled around the country by United for Peace and Justice. Hundreds of thousands of activists also raised their voices at rallies in London, Cairo, Tokyo and other cities around the globe.

    -----------------

    2. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld almost immediately urged President Bush to consider bombing Iraq after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks on New York and Washington, says a former senior administration counterterrorism aide.

    Richard A. Clarke, the White House counterterrorism coordinator at the time, recounts in a forthcoming book details of a meeting the day after the terrorist attacks during which top officials considered the U.S. response. Even then, he said, they were certain that al-Qaida was to blame and there was no hint of Iraqi involvement.

    -----------------

    3. President Bush used the first rally of his re-election campaign to cast Democrat John Kerry on Saturday as a serial tax-raiser who has voted for tax increases 350 times. He also mocked Kerry's claims of support from undisclosed foreign leaders.

    That all makes sense to you, right?
    ________________
    * Those are all stories from today's AP wire (20 March '04)

    posted by Jeff | 2:23 PM |
     

    Testing the Media's Independence

    Not only is Bush attempting to saddle Kerry with the title of dictator-coddling, confused coward, but he has the temerity to announce it as part of a precise 90-day strategy of slander:

    President Bush's campaign is following an aggressive and precise 90-day media strategy to define Senator John Kerry as indecisive and lacking conviction, with a coordinated blitz of advertisements, speeches and sound bites, senior campaign advisers said this week.

    The goal, several campaign aides said, is to first strip Mr. Kerry of the positive image that he carried away from the Democratic primary contests and then to define him issue by issue in their own terms before the summer vacation season. The central thrusts will be national security and taxes, they said.

    The aides said the strategy was planned weeks ago in coordination with Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's chief political aide, while Mr. Kerry was battling for his party's nomination.

    The aides are following a tight timetable, they said, and they want to have defined Mr. Kerry on their terms between now and early June, when they expect voters to stop paying close attention to politics, at least for a time.

    If there was ever an action that was more wholly symbolic of the approach of this administration, I'd be hard-pressed to come up with it. What arrogance! The administration is in effect saying: "we plan to subvert the media's voice, and we're telling you ahead of time how we plan to do that so that you (the media) may more effectively capitulate to it. We intend to create a wholly artificial impression of a presidential candidate that we created from careful focus-grouping and polling, and we expect you to dutifully present it as fact." It is, by the way, also a fantastically arrogant view of the malleability of the electorate:

    "The goal is right now," said a Bush adviser, "while he's weak, while they're financially struggling, to strip him of all the good that somehow in my opinion erroneously got attached to him."

    Poor, woeful voters, somehow attaching "all the good" to this candidate. The Bushies will soon disabuse them of their own opinions. When they're done, a quarter of a billion dollars later, they will have instilled the proper beliefs into the heads of the feebleheaded voters.

    The real question is whether the press will go along with it. Even a quarter of a billion dollars won't help if the paid advertisements run starkly in contrast to what journalists report. The Bushies aren't worried, though. They obviously think reporters will fall in line and parrot their talking points. Bushies have little reason to think otherwise--so far the press hasn't challenged the President even once when he rolls out one of his embarrassingly dubious claims.

    What's amazing is that the administration is not only confident the press will fall in line, but they're confident they can show them exactly which manipulations they'll use and still expect them to fall in line. Will they? Time will tell.

    posted by Jeff | 9:39 AM |


    Friday, March 19, 2004  

    [I received an email this morning from someone who wished to post a comment containing the following exchange between Richard Holbrooke and Wolf Blitzer. That thousand-word limit got in her way, so she just forwarded it as email. I'm taking the liberty to post it here. (Be sure to read the end.]

    Here's what Richard Holbrooke had to say when Wolf Blitzer tried to play up the non-issue of Kerry's not naming the foreign leaders (Notice the graceless way in which Blitzer introduces Holbrooke to CNN viewers, a telling detail):

    Back now to the battle over allies between President Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry. Earlier today I spoke with the former diplomatic troubleshooter Richard Holbrooke. The one-time ambassador to the United Nations during the Clinton administration, is now a foreign policy adviser for the Kerry campaign . . .

    BLITZER: Ambassador Holbrooke, thanks very much for joining us. A little revised version of what John Kerry said. He said, "I've met more leaders who can't go out and say it all publicly, but boy, they look at you and say, you got to win. This you got to beat this guy, we need a new policy, things like that." So there is enormous energy out there. The president today said, if he makes an accusation, he has a responsibility to back it up. What do you say?

    RICHARD HOLBROOKE, FRM. U.S. AMB. TO U.N.: John Kerry committed an unpardonable crime in Washington: he spoketh the truth. What he said is self-evidently true.

    There's a new poll out today by the Pew Institute, a worldwide pool, which shows massive and growing anti-Americanism around the world. Now American voters need to make up their own mind who they prefer, George W. Bush or John Kerry. But they also ought to know this administration is isolating us in the world, weakening us. Recent events in Spain, this election are another example.

    John Kerry said something everybody knows is true. And, Wolf, you know it's true.

    And why don't I say just one other thing. Why don't you, instead of staging a silly he said/he said between the White House, which is throwing all this mud at John Kerry after he said something true. Why don't you poll your foreign correspondents on CNN. And ask them who the population and leaderships in the world would prefer to see elected? Very simple.

    BLITZER: That may be for future course of action. But there's no doubt that when the president of the United States says to John Kerry, you make this charge, back it up, what's wrong with that? Why can't he say this leader said this to me, this leader said that to me. Why can't he just explain what he meant?

    HOLBROOKE: I have been in the last six months in Africa, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. I have met with leaders and members of the leadership that lead in every one of those countries.

    BLITZER: Be specific.

    HOLBROOKE: Look, Wolf, if you want me to say that such and such a foreign minister...

    BLITZER: I do, if that's what they said to you.

    HOLBROOKE: Wolf, you've been a foreign correspondent for many years, you don't reveal your sources when they're said in confidence. And it would be inappropriate and wrong -- these foreign ministers -- and you know this perfectly well as a very distinguished foreign correspondent.

    These foreign leaders say something to you in confidence. They have to work with the incumbent administration. The Bush administration knows that you as a journalist have [to] protect sources. It is self-evident.

    John Kerry simply said the truth. Everyone knows it. Look at...

    BLITZER: Let me interrupt. When I interviewed Donald Rumsfeld, the defense secretary on Sunday, he pointed it out there's an unprecedented coalition of the willing. Ninety countries have backed the president in the war on terror. And there are 30 or 40 countries with the U.S. in Iraq right now.

    HOLBROOKE: Mighty allies like Palau and the Marshall Islands. Let's get real. The United States did not forge a wide enough coalition.

    Look, I supported the effort to overthrow Saddam. I'm glad he's is gone. So did John Kerry. But the fact is the way the administration did it fractured a lot of our traditional alliances. We have less support in the world today, Spain is exhibit A, than we've ever had before. And we need to rebuild it. That's what John Kerry will do.

    BLITZER: Is the major lesson from the Spanish election that the people of Spain oppose the U.S. policy in the war against Iraq, in the war on terrorism? Or is it that the former Spanish government misled everyone by saying it was ETA, the Basque separatists movement, when it turns out, apparently, to have been some sort of Islamist group?

    HOLBROOKE: It's clearly a combination of both those factors. And the real lesson here is that 90 percent of the Spanish people oppose the support of the United States. Aznar was brave and I admire him for supporting us, as has Tony Blair been, as Berlusconi in Italy been.

    But the Spanish people decided that they wanted to change course and that was the issue that did it. I think it's extremely unfortunate that terrorism may have played a part in this. But the fact is the Spanish people and the new leader don't support the United States.

    BLITZER: But isn't this a win for the terrorists that they managed to topple a government in the aftermath of a horrible terrorist strike?

    HOLBROOKE: George Will wrote in today's column in "The Washington Post" that it is the biggest victory for terrorism that the most immediate consequences that he believes has happened in history.

    I don't buy that. I think the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914 which started World War I was a much bigger event.

    I don't want to portray this as a triumph for terrorism. The terrorist who did this should not be encouraged. The American public will not react the same way the Spanish people did. I understand Will's point, but I'm not ready to share it.

    BLITZER: I know you're a major supporter of John Kerry, you're a good Democrat. You want to be secretary of state?

    HOLBROOKE: I am personally right now focused solely on assisting Senator Kerry, a long-term friend in achieving his goal and leading this country in a new direction which we desperately need. The American public seems to think while they favor Senator Kerry on every domestic issue, that this administration is stronger national defense and the war on terrorism.

    My goal is to assist him in demonstrating clearly that this just isn't true. He has more experience in international affairs than the incumbent, he has traveled all over the world for years for years, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, service in Vietnam, father was a career diplomat. And that is my only goal right now.

    BLITZER: Being the good diplomat that you are yourself. Thanks very much.

    HOLBROOKE: Thank you, good journalist that you are yourself.


    posted by Jeff | 10:31 AM |
     

    Iraq Invasion:
    Assessment of the Rationale


    A year ago the bombs started flying. It's time for a reassessment. In celebration of this grim anniversary, I'm going to look back at a document I wrote in September, 2002 which argued against an invasion.

    On the side of war, Bush and his boys have offered essentially four reasons to invade. They argue that: 1) Saddam Hussein's a bad man, 2) Saddam's repressed his own people, 3) Saddam's got weapons of mass destruction (WMD), 4) Saddam's a terrorist and/or terrorist supporter.

    Corollary threats have been mentioned, although they haven't been identified in formal resolutions, either to the UN or congress. They include the sense that Iraq contributes to instability in the Middle East and that any restructuring of that region must begin with Iraq. In his words, "In one place, in one regime, we find all these dangers in their most lethal and aggressive forms exactly the kind of aggressive threat the United Nations was born to confront."

    We know a lot more about those claims now. The first two were never in question--but they certainly didn't justify an invasion. The third and fourth have been proven false. This leaves the Bush administration with the corollary benefits, which include regional stability and individual Iraqi freedoms. In commercials and speeches, these seem adequate to rouse American hearts. But we didn't invade Iraq for corollary benefits. We invaded because Bush introduced a new doctrine--pre-emptive invasion. According to this doctrine, Bush reserved for the US the power to defend:

    ". . .the United States, the American people, and our interests at home and abroad by identifying and destroying the threat before it reaches our borders. While the United States will constantly strive to enlist the support of the international community, we will not hesitate to act alone, if necessary, to exercise our right of self-defense by acting preemptively against such terrorists, to prevent them from doing harm against our people and our country." (emphasis added)

    The burden for invasion was extremely high. The confusion here arises where it always arises--in the confused rationales of the ideologically diverse Bush administration. On the one hand, neocons like Wolfowitz and Cheney approach foreign policy in a radical messianic mode, in which spreading American-style democracy is a moral imperative. Thus the rhetoric about an "axis of evil." On the other hand, cold warriors like Powell and Rumsfeld regarded invasion as an act of realpolitik, the movement of power by force into an important strategic region. For them, the "evil" business was merely justification.

    But that confusion shouldn't hide the facts: the doctrine of pre-emption was the justification of this war. And by its own definition, it failed to meet the criteria. Pre-emption is: 1) a doctrine developed to combat terror; and 2) a doctrine that depends on immanent threat, even if the threat isn't immanent enough to qualify under accepted rules of war. But Iraq was not a terrorist state (or in the language of the Pentagon, not an "exporter of terror"), nor was there any threat to the US. Never mind the historic presence of WMD--we didn't invade punitively. We invaded because the White House told us that Saddam was an immanent terrorist threat and that American lives were at stake.

    The war was an illegal one.

    posted by Jeff | 7:15 AM |


    Thursday, March 18, 2004  

    Al Sharpton was never a serious candidate for President. He didn't bother to set up a national campaign, and didn't do the things you need to do to earn the nomination. Nevertheless, he is an active candidate and he has more delegates than Dennis Kucinich. So why isn't the Oregon Secretary of State putting him on the ballot in Oregon?

    We don't vote until May 18th, which is in many ways a subversion of the Democratic process. Oregon has never contributed a single primary vote that was relevant to a Democratic nominee. In fact, if Dennis Kucinich didn't have a separate agenda in running for office (keeping the progressive agenda in the public debate), I would yet again have to write in the primary candidate I support--something I had to do every year since I became eligible to vote in 1988. So I find it unreasonable that an active candidate has just been eliminated by our own Secretary of State.

    posted by Jeff | 9:57 PM |
     

    From out of his spider hole, Dick goes on the attack:

    In one of Senator Kerry's recent observations about foreign policy, he informed his listeners that his ideas have gained strong support, at least among unnamed foreigners he's been spending time with. (Laughter.) Senator Kerry said that he has met with foreign leaders, and I quote, " who can't go out and say this publicly, but boy they look at you and say, 'You've got to win this, you've got to beat this guy, we need a new policy,' things like that." End quote.

    A few days ago in Pennsylvania, a voter asked Senator Kerry directly who these foreign leaders are. Senator Kerry said, "That's none of your business." (Laughter.) But it is our business when a candidate for President claims the political endorsement of foreign leaders. At the very least, we have a right to know what he is saying to foreign leaders that makes them so supportive of his candidacy. American voters are the ones charged with determining the outcome of this election - not unnamed foreign leaders. (Applause.)

    What's interesting here--well, there's so much, but anyway the most interesting--is how Cheney's echo chamber has deadened his ears to irony. This is the Veep of the President who looked into Vladimir Putin's eyes and saw him as a kindred spirit. A Veep who has spent three years in hiding, trying to avoid releasing information about his own secret dealings. Secret dealings that, of course, directly affected US domestic and foreign policy.

    What follows in the Cheney remarks are 1200 words of anti-Kerry rhetoric. As I wrote yesterday, they are textbook examples of fear mongering. The Bush team is prepared to pull out all the stops to call Kerry a traitorous, cowardly fool. It's harsh, harsh stuff.

    Even if we set aside these inconsistencies and changing rationales, at least this much is clear: Had the decision belonged to Senator Kerry, Saddam Hussein would still be in power, today, in Iraq. In fact, Saddam Hussein would almost certainly still be in control of Kuwait. (Laughter.) ...

    If such dismissive terms are the vernacular of the golden age of diplomacy Senator Kerry promises, we are left to wonder which nations would care to join any future coalition. He speaks as if only those who openly oppose America's objectives have a chance of earning his respect....

    On national security, the Senator has shown at least one measure of consistency. Over the years, he has repeatedly voted against weapons systems for the military. He voted against the Apache helicopter, against the Tomahawk cruise missile, against even the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. He has also been a reliable vote against military pay increases - opposing them no fewer than 12 times....

    Whatever the explanation, whatever nuances he might fault us for neglecting, it is not an impressive record for someone who aspires to become Commander-in-Chief in this time of testing for our country. In his years in Washington, Senator Kerry has been one vote of a hundred in the United States Senate - and fortunately on matters of national security, he was very often in the minority. But the presidency is an entirely different proposition. The President always casts the deciding vote. And the Senator from Massachusetts has given us ample doubts about his judgment and the attitude he brings to bear on vital issues of national security.

    There's the playbook. It's going to get ugly; all of these themes and more are going to be the central theme of the election. They're going to come from all sides--cronies in the GOP, media lackies like Rush, hit piece ads. They want to hang a label on Kerry, and this how they're going to try to do it. Kerry must work just as hard to present himself as a can-do guy with a plan.

    I guess the upside is that now we know what's coming.

    posted by Jeff | 8:18 AM |


    Wednesday, March 17, 2004  

    According to my dubious bracket, Gonzaga's going to win it all. I know, it seems unlikely--still, that's what the brackets say, so who am I to argue?

    posted by Jeff | 6:59 PM |
     

    This is both interesting news and an interesting article:

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Pentagon plans to withhold about $300 million in payments to Halliburton Co. because of possible overcharging for meals served to troops in Iraq and Kuwait, defense officials said Wednesday.

    Starting next month, the Defense Department will begin withholding 15 percent of the money paid to Vice President Dick Cheney's former company on a multibillion-dollar contract to provide services such as food, housing, laundry and mail to American forces in Iraq.

    "Dick Cheney's former company?" Can it be that the press is finally taking off its gloves?

    posted by Jeff | 2:41 PM |
     

    Via this David Corn article comes news of a report compiled by Henry Waxman called the "Iraq on the Record Report."

    This database identifies 237 specific misleading statements about the threat posed by Iraq made by these five officials in 125 public appearances in the time leading up to and after the commencement of hostilities in Iraq.

    Sound interesting? You betcha. Here's the opening paragraph:

    ON March 19, 2003, US forces began military operations in Iraq. Addressing the nation about the purpose of the war on the day bombing began, President Bush state: "The people of the United States and our friends and allies will not live at the mercy of an outlaw regime that threatens the peace with weapons of mass murder."

    posted by Jeff | 11:12 AM |
     

    The War About Terror

    "If anything, we understated the case for war."
    --Paul Wolfowitz, this morning on NPR (quoted from memory)

    --------------------------------

    "Do you think President Bush gave the country the most accurate information he had before going to war with Iraq, or do you think President Bush exaggerated information to make the case for war with Iraq?"

    Most accurate: 48%
    Exaggerated: 50%

    NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, March 6-8, 2004.

    --------------------------------

    "Who do you trust to do a better job handling the US campaign against terror, Bush or Kerry?"

    Bush: 54%
    Kerry: 37%

    ABC News/Washington Post poll, Feb. 10-11, 2004.

    Three bizarre facts contront John Kerry this year. The first is that the Bush administration lied (and continues to lie) to justify an unnecessary war. The second is that most Americans know this. And the third is that they still trust Bush far more than Kerry to protect them from terrorists.

    The only thing that can explain these facts is fear, but that doesn't make Kerry's job any easier. To win the presidency, Kerry may not have to get a majority of Americans thinking he's better on terror than Bush, but he's going to have to close the gap. From where I sit, he's got three choices. He can follow the Bush prescription and try to out-scare the public; he can make logical arguments about the actual state of security in America and point out Bush's failures therein; or he can offer specific plans that will convince voters that his alternative terrorism plan is adequate.

    The first two choices are losers. He can't play the fear game because he won't convert the truly terrified, and everyone else will see it as desperate. So far, he's pursued the second course--seemingly baffled by the fact that a lying president who hasn't done much on the terrorism front is whooping him. But this one's a loser, too. People are scared, and fear is irrational; he can't provide logic and hope to combat it.

    That leaves the third option, which is his only real hope. The good news is that he has a plan. The bad news is that no one knows what it is. The Bushies are already putting Kerry on the defensive and painting him as a confused tyrant-coddler with no plan. It would be tempting to strike back and try to paint Bush as a confused liar with a badly failed plan, but as true as this is, it becomes just so much rhetoric. If he's going to rise above the discussion, Kerry must lead with his plan. It shouldn't be so hard--every time the President attacks, it provides Kerry with free press to outline his strategy.

    Kerry's plan fairly good one, too. It highlights American service, which is a great way to offset fear: people feel safer when they're doing something. He has a component that will train and coordinate local entities who are "first responders." This is a big weakness with the President--he hasn't provided much in the way of leadership or money to local governments. If Kerry can engage those local governments, they become part of his rhetorical team. (And look what happened when Bush pissed off NYC's firefighters.) The other big weakness in Bush's effort is his failure to protect key targets like ports, bridges, and energy installations. Again, Kerry has a plan to secure these.

    Focusing on what he will do--and what Americans can do--is the only shot he's got. I don't think he'll ever fully overcome the Bush advantage here, but he doesn't need to. The war on terror is Bush's only winning issue; if Kerry can cut into it significantly, issues like jobs and the economy will decide the election.

    posted by Jeff | 8:22 AM |


    Tuesday, March 16, 2004  

    Okay, one downside to gay marriage just occurred to me. If same-sex marriage becomes the law of the land, won't this encourage well-meaning single men, particularly lonely ones, to "marry" immigrants? Imagine, a 40-year-old guy whose best friend is Ray from Everybody Loves Raymond, probably he's a security guard, all of sudden gets the notion to take out an ad in the local paper.

    "US citizen willing to enter civil union with English-speaking illegal alien. Must be willing to pay own rent and pretend to admire my comic book collection. Gamers a plus. Usual nons."

    Pretty soon legal immigration is skyrocketing; INS agents are unwilling to monitor for sexual activity. Conservatives, having lost the hope of converting immigrants to the GOP, are incensed. Soon, marriage and civil unions are abandoned.

    Hey, it could happen.

    posted by Jeff | 2:43 PM |
     

    All right, what's up? One hit last hour? I know things have been thin here lately, but one hit?

    posted by Jeff | 1:02 PM |
     

    After seeing the Blix comments today, this comment from David Brooks seems particularly relevant:

    "Does anyone doubt that Americans and Europeans have different moral and political cultures?"

    Actually, it's more than just the Europeans. We've become a coalition of one.

    posted by Jeff | 9:15 AM |
     

    A little over a year ago, the White House derided Hans Blix as an ineffectual tyrant-coddler. All the loathing Americans felt toward the squishy, swishy French was taken out on Hans, whose funny accent reminded them of Pepe LePew. But who's ineffectual now? On NPR this morning, Blix essentially called the US and British ideological fools. He didn't bother with diplomatic language.

    Just as Bush prepares to roll out the triumphal laurels for his imperial vision, Blix has appeared with a new book, Disarming Iraq. It appears Blix is intent on returning the verbal favor, just when Bush wants to ignore hard questions. Listen:

    "Like the former days of the witch hunt, they are convinced that they exist, and if you see a black cat, well, that's evidence of the witch."

    "So in a way, you could say that Iraq was perhaps as much punitive as it was pre-emptive. It was a reaction to 9/11 that we have to strike some theoretical, hypothetical links between Saddam Hussein and the terrorists. That was wrong. There wasn't anything."

    "I am not suggesting that Blair and Bush spoke in bad faith, but I am suggesting that it would not have taken much critical thinking on their own part or the part of their close advisers to prevent statements that misled the public."

    And most damningly, he also commented on the effect of the invasion--a point John Kerry and the Democrats absolutely need to make.

    "Sorry to say it doesn't look that way. If the aim was to send a signal to terrorists that we are determined to take you on, that has not succeeded. In Iraq, it has bred a lot of terrorism and a lot of hatred to the Western world."

    posted by Jeff | 7:14 AM |


    Monday, March 15, 2004  

    Kwiatkowski follow-up

    Of course, whenever someone emerges from the inner sanctum with stories of what they saw, snipers start peering through their scopes. And so it was following the Kwiatkowski story in Salon (below). The response, according to a follow-up in Salon today:

    Kwiatkowski's right-wing critics could not challenge her facts, not a single one, so they immediately reached for the tar brush. The Wall Street Journal smeared her as "something of a right-wing crank." Max Boot, a conservative columnist for the Los Angeles Times, trashed her as "flaky." Then Clifford May, a hit man for the Republican National Committee, was given free reign by John Gibson, host of Fox News' "The Big Show," to drag the 20-year Air Force veteran through the mud after Fox turned off her microphone -- one more bold display of the network's commitment to fairness and balance. Once she was silenced, Gibson and May smeared Lt. Col. Kwiatkowski as an "anarchist" with "radical associations" to political weirdoes like Lyndon LaRouche.

    posted by Jeff | 2:57 PM |
     

    I've received two tips on this story, so you know it must be important. (I think everyone in the world read it but me, but hey, that's another story.) The upshot is: while working for the DOD, Karen Kwiatkoski witnessed the neocon seizure of foreign policy from the inside. She wrote about it for Salon. (One of the tips came from another Salon writer, the witty Joyce McGreevy.) The facts are many and are sadly predictable. There is information about key players she worked with.

    Connections A politically savvy civilian-clothes-wearing lieutenant colonel named Bill Bruner served as the Iraq desk officer, and he had apparently joined NESA about the time Bill Luti did. I discovered that Bruner, like Luti, had served as a military aide to Speaker Gingrich. Gingrich himself was now conveniently an active member of Bush's Defense Policy Board, which had space immediately below ours on the third floor.

    Doug Feith
    Doug Feith, undersecretary of defense for policy, was a case study in how not to run a large organization.... He blithely informed us that for months he didn't realize Rumsfeld had a daily stand-up meeting with his four undersecretaries. He shared with us the fact that, after he started to attend these meetings, he knew better what Rumsfeld wanted of him. Most military staffers and professional civilians hearing this were incredulous, as was I, to hear of such organizational ignorance lasting so long and shared so openly. Feith's inattention to most policy detail, except that relating to Israel and Iraq, earned him a reputation most foul throughout Policy, with rampant stories of routine signatures that took months to achieve and lost documents. His poor reputation as a manager was not helped by his arrogance.

    Descriptions of how politics drove intelligence.

    Some bullets were softened, particularly statements of Saddam's readiness and capability in the chemical, biological or nuclear arena. Others were altered over time to match more exactly something Bush and Cheney said in recent speeches. One item I never saw in our talking points was a reference to Saddam's purported attempt to buy yellowcake uranium in Niger. The OSP list of crime and evil had included Saddam's attempts to seek fissionable materials or uranium in Africa. This point was written mostly in the present tense and conveniently left off the dates of the last known attempt, sometime in the late 1980s. I was surprised to hear the president's mention of the yellowcake in Niger in his 2003 State of the Union address because that indeed was new and in theory might have represented new intelligence, something that seemed remarkably absent in any of the products provided us by the OSP (although not for lack of trying). After hearing of it, I checked with my old office of Sub-Saharan African Affairs -- and it was news to them, too. It also turned out to be false.

    And analysis about what was really going on.

    It is interesting today that the "defense" for those who lied or prevaricated about Iraq is to point the finger at the intelligence. But the National Intelligence Estimate, published in September 2002, as remarked upon recently by former CIA Middle East chief Ray McGovern, was an afterthought. It was provoked only after Sens. Bob Graham and Dick Durban noted in August 2002, as Congress was being asked to support a resolution for preemptive war, that no NIE elaborating real threats to the United States had been provided. In fact, it had not been written, but a suitable NIE was dutifully prepared and submitted the very next month. Naturally, this document largely supported most of the outrageous statements already made publicly by Bush, Cheney, Rice and Rumsfeld about the threat Iraq posed to the United States. All the caveats, reservations and dissents made by intelligence were relegated to footnotes and kept from the public. Funny how that worked.

    And:

    President Bush has now appointed a commission to look at American intelligence capabilities and will report after the election. It will "examine intelligence on weapons of mass destruction and related 21st century threats ... [and] compare what the Iraq Survey Group learns with the information we had prior..." The commission, aside from being modeled on failed rubber stamp commissions of the past and consisting entirely of those selected by the executive branch, specifically excludes an examination of the role of the Office of Special Plans and other executive advisory bodies. If the president or vice president were seriously interested in "getting the truth," they might consider asking for evidence on how intelligence was politicized, misused and manipulated, and whether information from the intelligence community was distorted in order to sway Congress and public opinion in a narrowly conceived neoconservative push for war. Bush says he wants the truth, but it is clear he is no more interested in it today than he was two years ago.

    posted by Jeff | 2:01 PM |
     

    So is everyone else filled with dread at the thought that al Qaeda played a game of retailiation in selecting Spain for this weekend's train bombing? The question is, how do they regard George W. Bush? The bombing in Spain changed an election. What's the calculation now? What's the target? If there is an attack, how will Americans respond? Nasty, nasty business.

    posted by Jeff | 11:54 AM |
     

    When Multnomah County decided to issue marriage licenses to gay couples, we in Oregon got a front-row view of an emerging process of lawmaking--local governments ignoring state laws and essentially drafting their own, forcing the issue into the courts. I've been considering the mechanism and its causes, and here are a couple thoughts.

    America is more "polarized"--we know this because political rhetoric is caustic and divisive and because the focus of the political process swings wildly between narrow special interests. In Oregon, by way of example, we watched as the state legislature met for five special sessions to try top patch up a $2 billion budget hole. After the longest session in history, legislators finally staggered out with a bi-partisan agreement to raise revenues by $800 million and cut services for the balance. Yet immediately after they struck the deal, the hardcore wing of the GOP announced they were putting a ballot measure forward that would repeal the hike. In February, that measure went through, flushing the work of the legislature down the toilet.

    Portland gay couples, confronted with the difficulty of trying to secure their rights via the broken legislative process, decided to look elsewhere. Lawmaking depends on good faith and cooperation. In many statehouses (and certainly Oregon's), there are neither.

    Also, in the crisis of lost leadership, there's very little hope of speedy change. A decision like Multnomah County's can circumvent the grandstanding and base-pleasing and put an issue on a fast track to resolution. It may not be a generalized panacea, but in the case of civil rights violations, local governments have shown that they can force a legal ruling on an issue far more quickly if they act on their own.

    Again, in the Oregon example, Multnomah County started issuing marriage licenses just two weeks ago, and it appears legal challenges will proceed speedily to the Oregon Supreme Court. Every official legal opinion has agreed that the Oregon Constitution explicitly assures rights like gay marriage, even if state law does not. As a result of their decision to ignore state law, Multnomah County has ensured that the issue of gay marriage will be decided before the May primaries.

    (Efforts to change the state Constitution and enshrine language specifically removing rights to gay Oregonians are already underway.)

    Watching all this, I wondered about the "polarization" issue. It's a settled notion that we're as polarized now as we were in 1968. Evidence abounds--Fox News makes sure of it. But what's the cause and what's the effect? Americans are polarized because government doesn't work much any more, and instead of blaming the culprits, we lash out at each other.

    Individually, politicians profit from our dissention. Decisions like Multnomah County's give us a measure of control back, but the larger problem remains. Further dividing ourselves by lawmaking in this unorthodox manner is hardly a good solution. Until politicians start serving the public good, rather than the needs of the narrow interests of the base who elect them, we won't see good lawmaking, and we'll continue to snipe at each other.

    posted by Jeff | 7:47 AM |


    Sunday, March 14, 2004  

    Dancing

    While the rest of the country fawns over the Super Bowl, for true sports connoiseurs, there's only one king of annual sports events: the NCAA basketball tournament. The Super Bowl is a bloated media event of over-exposed superstars that rarely delivers excitement; the Tourney is a rollercoaster of excitement that includes teams with names like the Mountain Hawks, Salukis, and Crusaders. And it never disappoints.

    Well, the field is set. As always, there are winners and losers, teams that didn't make the tourney, teams that got bum seeds, and teams that get sweetheart brackets and homecourt venues.

    Winners
    Gonzaga. The Zags could have gone as low as a four seed, but instead get a two seed and a first round venue in Seattle. They've been shafted for the past three years, so call this overdue justice.

    Duke. They always get a great bracket, they usually play in NC, and they're usually seeded first or second. Check, check, and check.

    Maryland. The Terrapins snag a four seed, despite failing to win 20 and losing 11. Before this weekend, they were on the bubble. Now they've leapfrogged over six-loss Wisconsin and Illinois and 21-win Syracuse. They had an RPI of 35, lower than Missouri, who didn't even make the dance.

    Losers
    The Big Ten. Although the conference was uncharacteristically weak this year, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan State got seeds of just 5, 6, and 7. For my beloved alma mater (the Badgers), it's a mixed bag. Seeds aside, they're looking pretty good. They got a first round venue in Milwaukee, which offsets the low seeds. But how to reconcile the fact that Illinois, who was ranked lower in the AP, whom they beat by 20 in the Big Ten title game and beat 2 of 3 over the season, got a higher seed? You got to respect Bucky.

    Pittsburgh. Arguably a 1 seed before the weekend, Pitt gets dropped to three and looks to face a seriously underrated 6 seeded Badger team in Milwaukee. For a squad who lost only four games all season and who should win 30 this year, that's a shaft.

    posted by Jeff | 4:06 PM |


    Saturday, March 13, 2004  

    Speaking of tepid reviews, David Brooks gets one for floating out a trial balloon against John Kerry. So far, Kerry lacks the access label through which conservatives will target their assaults. That is, the "anger" or Howard Dean or Bill Clinton's "slickness." Brooks tries to argue that Kerry holds no strong views on foreign policy, apparently in contrast with his monochromatically moral main main, Dubya.

    Kerry has made clear that if he is elected president, the nation will never face a caveat shortage. He has established the foragainst method, which has enabled him to be foragainst the war in Iraq, foragainst the Patriot Act and foragainst No Child Left Behind.

    Clever, no? He's introduced a new term! But forget the cleverness (which isn't) and forget the argument. Kerry is on the winning side of this issue. He supported the initial vote on Iraq, but criticized the White House's handling of it. Exactly as voters did. Oh, and it also raises the specter of another past war, where Kerry served his country and earned the right to criticize his leaders' judgment. Exactly as the voters did. The "foragainst" argument opens up that can of worms as well. If pursued, this line of argument might make Brooks coin a phrase for Bush: "for wars I don't have to fight."

    posted by Jeff | 9:31 AM |
     

    After my brutal week, I decided to attend a screening of the tepidly-reviewed Starsky and Hutch. It's possible that if your brain is sharp and you're in the mood for something like Fog of War, S & H is not the movie for you. But if you're punchy and after silliness, it's not a bad choice. It ain't Zoolander or Royal Tenenbaums, but Owen and Ben have developed a nice repore rapport. Silly but not insulting.

    posted by Jeff | 9:25 AM |


    Friday, March 12, 2004  

    Oregon AG Calls Gay Marriages Illegal, Unconstitutional

    Hardy Myers, the Oregon State Attorney General, today gave his non-binding opinion on the question of Multnomah County's decision to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. In very brief, he said the County's decision violates state marriage law but state marriage law appears to violate the Oregon Constitution. His words:

    "We can summarize our conclusions as follows: (1) current Oregon laws prohibit county clerks from issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples; (2) under current law, the legal status of being "married" carries with it legal rights, benefits and obligations; and (3) the Oregon Supreme Court likely would conclude that withholding from the same-sex couples the legal rights, benefits and obligations that--under current law--are automatically granted to married couples of the opposite sex likely violates Article I, section 20 of the Oregon Constitution; but (4) because of the uncertainties about the Article I, Section 20 analysis that the Oregon Supreme Court would bring to bear on the question, it would be unwise to change current state practices until, and unless, a decision by the Supreme Court makes clear what, if any changes are required."

    Article I, Section 20 of the Oregon Constitution reads:

    "No law shall be passed granting to any citizen or class of citizens privileges or immunities, which, upon the same terms, shall not equally belong to all citizens."

    Hardy Myers has a reputation for clear, objective reading of the law, and he appears to have given such an opinion. Reading it, a couple thoughts come to mind.

    As a matter of strategy, granting all Multnomah County citizens the right to marriage licenses will force state law to come into compliance with the Oregon Constitution. I wrote last week that the decision was clearly a political one. Viewed in that light, the decision has obviously fast-tracked civil rights. Myers' opinion doesn't equivocate about whether the law currently affords same-sex couples the right to marry. In just two paragraphs, he provides evidence it does not.

    "Although this section does not state expressly that a marriage must consist of a man and a woman, other statutes that provide context for it leave not doubt in this case.... The legislature has not defined 'husband' or 'wife' for purposes of chapter 106, but we see no basis for giving them other than their 'plain, natural and ordinary meaning.'"

    What Multnomah County did was Constitutional, not legal. A funny distinction, but there you have it. To remedy the situation they made a political, not legal, decision. In terms of advancing civil rights, I'm prepared to say it was a good one. This issue should be clarified soon.

    The second thing Myers makes clear is that while people may have attachment to the word "marriage," in a legal context, it is a specific designation. He makes a distinction between social value and legal value.

    "Under current Oregon law, marriage carries with it a number of rights and responsibilities. Those benefits and obligations are automatically available to opposite-sex couples who choose to marry, but they are denied to same-sex couples who are otherwise similarly situated."

    For those who wish to amend the Constitution, they'll have to install language that specifically removes rights from those Oregonians. Thanks to Myers' transparent, non-political language, we have a better idea of what's in front of us. Are Oregonians prepared to remove rights? It wouldn't be the first time, but I don't know that the state is itching to repeat past transgressions.

    posted by Jeff | 5:38 PM |
     

    Regular blogging will begin again...tomorrow.

    Sorry.

    posted by Jeff | 4:25 PM |


    Thursday, March 11, 2004  

    The Heretic Speaks

    Serendipity smiled today. I was doing some work this week at a state building in NE Portland, and this afternoon, just down the hall, Rep. Peter DeFazio held a press conference about the economy. What luck! Naturally, I sidled over.

    The economy is always in the eye of the beholder, but perhaps no more so than right now. John Edwards talked about "two Americas" as a metaphor for winners and losers in the Bush economy. But one could easily use it as a metaphor to describe belief systems--religion versus science.

    In the religion corner (we're talking metaphor here, remember), we have the pro-"trade" crowd. Here Trade is God: omnipotent, omniscient, beneficent. We reward Trade by shifting all federal dollars to the producers of wealth (if not goods), the theory being that with a modest investment we will get back vast multiples of dollars--money that will benefit us down to the last Wal-Mart associate. Putting federal dollars toward things like social services is folly--how can it ever multiply like Trade? Furthermore, workers are line items on the expense side of the spreadsheet. They are regarded as obstacles to Trade. Reward them not directly, but through the manifold benefits Trade will bestow later on, when we're all wealthy.

    On the science side of things are a shadowy and dangerous cabal who appeal to logic. With their pointy, evil heads, they cast away the Faith of Trade and whisper Newton's heresy about actions and reactions. They argue that the economy is a massive Ponzi scheme that will eventually (some say soon!) implode.

    Peter DeFazio is a member of this group.

    (Continue reading at the American Street.)

    posted by Jeff | 3:55 PM |
     

    Why do I think this is unlikely to rouse much shock or awe?

    President Bush opened the White House and Camp David to dozens of overnight guests last year, including foreign dignitaries, family friends and at least nine of his biggest campaign fund-raisers, documents show....

    Some guests spent a night in the Lincoln Bedroom, historic quarters that gained new fame in the Clinton administration amid allegations that Democrats rewarded major donors like Hollywood heavyweights Steven Spielberg and Barbra Streisand with accommodations there.

    This President beholden to his political cronies? I'm stunned.

    posted by Jeff | 7:15 AM |


    Wednesday, March 10, 2004  

    Also--

    It looks like the Senate has cold feet about greenlighting Bush's effort to make the tax cuts permanent. This could be big news come November, functioning as a political rebuke of his crooked policies. It will be more difficult to argue that the tax cuts are sober policy if your own party won't make 'em permanent.

    And speaking of bad news, with today's tumble on the Dow, the index is now down for the year. Long months before the election, but this isn't exactly the rosy economy Bush keeps trying to spin.

    posted by Jeff | 7:11 PM |
     

    Thinking a bit more on that Kerry quote, I wonder if we shouldn't start a googlebombing campaign on that crooked group.

    I don't know--maybe it's passe.

    posted by Jeff | 7:07 PM |
     

    “Let me tell you, we’ve just begun to fight. We’re going to keep pounding. These guys are the most crooked, you know, lying group I’ve ever seen. It’s scary.”

    That's John Kerry, admittedly not on the record, telling backers what he really thinks. Two thoughts.

    1. This is good news for those of us who wondered whether Kerry was going to be committed to change and reform. He apparently agrees with the basic problem--and can see that the emperor has no clothes.

    2. Why aren't all the Democrats saying this on the record all the time?

    posted by Jeff | 6:30 PM |
     

    There's a whole lot going on in the gay rights battle here in Oregon, but I won't be able to comment on it until tonight. I remain swamped.

    I urge you to follow the story, though--it's fascinating. Yesterday the legal counsel to the legislature concurred with Multnomah County's ruling. He actually went further and said Oregon's marriage law is unconstitutional.

    Read about the opinion at the indispensible Portland Communique. Worldwide Pablo has also been offering nice commentary over the past 10 days.

    As for me--I'll try to get some decent content up ... sometime.

    posted by Jeff | 7:32 AM |


    Tuesday, March 09, 2004  

    Civil Unions for All

    In the debate about whether the constitution should sanction gay marriage, I haven't heard anyone flip the argument. Namely, what business is it of government to sanction marriage at all? The actual benefits government affords to married couples are secular (and mainly financial). From a civic point of view, the contractural bond has nothing to do with religion or morality.

    The complaint against government-sanctioned gay marriage isn't contractural, it's religious. By sizeable margins, most Americans endorse civil unions. The beef isn't really with the rights granted to the civilly-joined--it's that marriage implies a moral or religious endorsement. (Why the complainers don't complain about weddings conducted by justices of the peace isn't as clear, but let's leave that aside for now.)

    A modest proposal: government should grant licenses for civil unions. County officials don't ask what will happen under the sheets, they just check to make sure everyone's over 18. Seems that reasonable people can agree that, really, government shouldn't have much more of a role.

    The sacrament part of it falls under the purview of religion, and governent can happily keep its nose out. Let the sacrament be judged by those who actually all believe the same general rules--practitioners of religious faiths.

    Inheritance is the business of government, theology the business of religion. The two seem to function so much more ably when they don't conflate their purpose or scope.

    posted by Jeff | 7:28 AM |


    Monday, March 08, 2004  

    My work day is just now ending. Needless to say, there'll be no blogging. But I couldn't help but mention this (thanks GJS):

    A body that surfaced in the East River on Sunday was identified by the city medical examiner yesterday as that of Spalding Gray, the confessional monologuist and actor who disappeared two months ago.

    The NYT article contains this info: In his 1980 show "Point Judith," Mr. Gray spoke a line that may well have summed up his life and career. "It's very hard for me," he said, "not to tell everybody everything."

    In fact, I prefer to think of it as a different line. It's in a book I had signed by a girlfriend of mine who was able to see one of his monologues in the early 90s. Ironically, I had just left to go to India. When I got home, she gave me the book and it was inscribed with what I think was a signature phrase of his. I consider it a more literary line and a wiser one. In it is the truth of the writer (and I assume, performer). It said:

    "Dear Jeff, please laugh."

    Photo: Raku Loren

    posted by Jeff | 8:38 PM |
     

    I'll be away from a computer during the days this week. I'll try to post in the evenings.

    posted by Jeff | 7:24 AM |


    Sunday, March 07, 2004  



    Well, no sooner than I defend the President than we learn this unsavory fact (via Atrios):

    Another less-publicized aspect of the ad flap: the use of paid actors—including two playing firefighters with fire hats and uniforms in what looks like a fire station. "Where the hell did they get those guys?" cracked Harold Schaitberger, president of the International Association of Fire Fighters, which has endorsed John Kerry, when he first saw the ads. (A union spokesman said the shots prompted jokes that the fire hats looked like the plastic hats "from a birthday party.") "There's many reasons not to use real firemen," retorted one Bush media adviser. "Mainly, its cheaper and quicker."

    Nice work, George.

    posted by Jeff | 8:41 PM |
     

    Despite the screamer headline ("54 percent in Oregon oppose same-sex marriage, poll says"), the Oregonian today reports hopeful findings from a poll of attitudes on gay marriage.

    In fact, only 34% are "opposed to any legal recognition of same-sex couples regardless of what form it takes or what it is called." Another third are in favor of gay marriage. The final third "oppose same sex-marriage but support the idea of civil unions between same-sex couples."

    In other words, a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage is likely to be opposed by something on the order of 60% of Oregonians, depending on the scope of the change.

    On the other hand, there's this: although Kerry's ahead of Bush by 5% (45%-40%), Ralph Nader is polling at 5% and 11% are undecided. In the absence of a Nader candidacy, that 5% goes to Kerry. Because of Kerry's middle road position on gay marriage, this could become a single-ssue litmus test for voters who now have the Nader out. It is almost certain to drive up his number (however marginally), which could be significant in a close race. The real group to watch are the 11%. (Though I wonder what percent of likely voters is actually undecided. Eleven percent seems awfully high given the stark difference between the candidates. The Oregonian provides no info on the study's methodology.)

    posted by Jeff | 11:26 AM |


    Saturday, March 06, 2004  

    "I will continue to speak about the effects of 9/11 on our country and my presidency."

    President Bush, speaking about his campaign ads, which include images of 9/11

    Generally when I begin a post with a quote by Bush, it's to highlight the latest twisted logic, lie, or bumble. But on this one, I'm going to side with him. I saw the first ad last night (you can watch them here), and was surprised by how evenhanded they were. Two of the three current ads mention 9/11, but both in the context of difficulties the country has faced.

    Bush continued: "How this administration handled that day, as well as the war on terror, is worthy of discussion. And I look forward to the debate about who best to lead this country in the war on terror."

    He's exactly right. One of the most significant events in American history happened under his watch, and it's fair game. What he did in the immediate aftermath of the tragedy was far worse--there he exploited a vulnerable country with the Patriot Act, tax cuts, and an ill-advised war. He might easily slide into exploitation again--challenging Democrats' patriotism, as the GOP did with Max Cleland, for example. But these ads are far from that.

    We do a disservice to the debate of public policy in this country if we can't talk 9/11. This is something the Dems should take to heart--Bush's record on fighting terror and uniting the country is something they should definitely highlight.

    posted by Jeff | 10:42 PM |
     

    Multnomah County Gay Marriage Update

    It's been an interesting week in Portland, my hometown. As most of you know, the Multnomah County Commissioners made a decision late Tuesday evening that the state constitution did not bar same-sex couples from getting married. Beginning Wednesday morning, they began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Here's what's happened since.

    Wednesday, March 3
    Multnomah County begins issuing marriage licenses. The immediate reaction is widely varied and intense.

    Thursday, March 4
    Seperate from the issue of whether gay marriage is a right guaranteed by the Oregon Consititution, a cacophany of critics slam the "process." The Multnomah County commissioners met privately with each other and offered no opportunity for public feedback. They consulted legal advice and determined that they had no legal right to deny marriage licenses to gays and lesbians. Even one member of the commission wasn't in the loop (though a week before their announcement, it was reported in the news). Afterward, this process is called "star-chamber stuff" by some foes.

    Editorial staffs across the state use the process issue to dodge the larger question--and no punches are pulled:

    What arrogance. What self-indulgence. What breathtaking gall." The commishes employed a "dictatorial approach."
    --Oregonian (Portland)

    The implications for the impromptu violation of the democratic process in Oregon has very sinister implications for the rule of law in this State.
    --Glendale News (Southern Oregon)

    Every once in a while, political reformers try to encourage young people to start voting. The question somebody should ask is: Why? What's the point?On some important issues, as we have seen in Oregon, voting hardly matters.
    --Democrat-Herald (Albany)

    The Multnomah County commissioners have disgraced the Oregon Constitution and broken their pact with the public.
    --Statesman Journal (Salem)

    Anti-gay foes (an active political bloc) spring into action and use the process issue to drive support for proposed initiatives that would amend the constitution to ban gay marriage. Meanwhile, hundreds of couples receive marriage licenses from the County. Across the street, anti-gay protesters wave signs like one appearing on yesterday's Portland Tribune: "Can [Will?] you escape the wrath of God - Matthew 23:33"

    Friday, May 5
    The debate rages on talk shows and blogs. Oregon bloggers, a vast and well-informed lot, see their hit totals spike, and on at least one blog, a city councilman joins the discussion. Other Oregon communities begin to discuss with how they'll grapple with the question of issuing marriage licenses to gay couples.

    Today
    Now that everyone's settled down a little, it appears that the county commissioners may well win the "process" question after all. In today's Oregonian, two articles give an evenhanded consideration of the legal issues (seemingly refuting their earlier, ill-advised tough talk). From the first:

    Multnomah County leaders endured months of public hearings and meetings before they adopted a domestic partner registry for couples, including gays, four years ago....

    Because, county leaders say, the registry required a new law, which demands public hearings and action. By contrast, approving same-sex marriage was an administrative decision, an interpretation of current law.

    The second article is , a law professor from the University of Oregon. commentary from Robert L. Tsai

    Every elected official in Oregon takes an oath to uphold the laws and constitutions of the state and the nation. In fulfilling these obligations, public officials must independently interpret and apply the law every day in cities and counties around the state (the attorney general may offer his opinion but has no power to settle the legal issue). Invariably, there are real differences of legal opinion. Until a court of final resort has resolved the issues, there is room for good-faith disagreement about the scope of state law and requirements of the constitution.

    Some time next week, Oregon Attorney General Hardy Myers will issue his opinion on the commissioners' decision. One lawsuit has already been filed to stop the county from issuing further licenses, and more may follow. Expect the next stage of the battle to be legal. Meanwhile, anti-gay activists are chomping at the bit to start collecting signatures for their ballot measure. I'll keep you updated on the happenings.

    posted by Jeff | 10:32 AM |


    Friday, March 05, 2004  

    I've been trying to think of something pithy to say about Martha Stewart. Nothing.

    She's going to the pokey. Her net worth plummeted $85 million. All in all, a pretty bad day.

    posted by Jeff | 3:22 PM |
     

    KERRY CONSIDERED LIEBERMAN, BARKLEY AS RUNNING MATE

    WASHINGTON (API)--API has recently obtained several documents apparently stolen by Republican staffers from Senate Democrats. The contents of the documents related primarily to election-year strategies. One such file apparently came from Senator John Kerry, and appears to be notes about candidates for running mate. The notes stretch back for more than a year and run through early this week, suggesting that Republicans continue to pilfer Democratic files. The Kerry document is reprinted here in its entirety.

    __________________________

    February 24, 2003
    Advisors suggest team begin consideration of running mate. Field incredibly weak; Lieberman poses only threat. Potential Clark candidacy may cause trouble. Consider Clark and Lieberman as running mates.

    March 2, 2003
    War looming; a few nuts in Portland and San Francisco protesting. Must compete with a war president. Contact DLC to find pro-war moderate with foreign policy experience. Lieberman leading polls. This is the years for an insider with experience.

    March 16, 2003
    Advisors focus-grouped a running mate. Southern moderate/conservative polling well. Need to offset the Massachusetts liberal thing. DLC recommends Zell Miller; innoculation against liberal elitism. Perfect candidate: Kentucky, moderate, a general.

    April 25, 2003
    War has given a big bump to the president, but the protests have been fierce. Advisors recommend moving away from pro-war candidate. A focus group in Des Moines liked a moderate gay from Indianapolis--pulls away the social moderates from Bush. Must offset war popularity somehow. Advisors looking for a moderate gay. Joe Biden?

    May 14, 2003
    Who the hell is Howard Dean? What's a blog? Advisors now suggest a moderate Southerner who's anti-war. Could be gay. Could be a general.

    July 28, 2003
    Running mate must be anti-war. Advisors suggesting a populist, might not be a moderate. Focus groups in Maine, Kansas, and Florida all like Howard Dean. Everyone likes Howard Dean. Either get Howard Dean or become Howard Dean. Forget the general unless he's anti-war. Running mate must be an outsider, but with experience. Clark.

    August 12, 2003
    Dean on cover of Time. Must run from the outside, the Democratic wing of Dems. Liberal is in. DLC still suggesting Zell Miller. What about Joe Trippi? Focus groups don't know what they want. Bush is targeting Hispanics. Bill Richardson?

    October 28, 2003
    Moving operations to Iowa. Advisors suggest an Iowan running mate. Could be gay; must be a populist--moderate or liberal. Advisors suggest naming him now. Must get Iowa. Private note: meeting with mortgage broker at 2 on refinance. Somebody give Tom Harkin a call.

    January 3, 2004
    Advisors suggest gay liberal techie. Fired advisors. Hired new advisors. They advise a union man--an anti-war manufacturer. Could be southern. What about someone like Bill Ford Jr.?

    January 21, 2004
    New thinking: outsider not important, experience not important (Edwards). Focus groups "Schwarzeneggering." They say go celeb. Perfect candidate: Charles Barkley--black, southern, popular with NASCAR set. Leery about Schwarzeneggering strategy.

    January 28, 2004
    Lieberman out. (Someone send him a card.)

    February 5, 2004
    Gays out.

    March 3, 2004
    Schwarzeneggering strategy gaining currency. "Elvis." Suggestions: 50 Cent, Eminem. Edwards all right in a pinch.

    posted by Jeff | 12:01 PM |
     

    I'm in slo-mo this morning, but I'm working on a bit of satire that seems promising. My satire's been off a little lately, so I'm giving it some effort today. Check back in an hour or two.

    posted by Jeff | 8:06 AM |


    Thursday, March 04, 2004  

    "I promise you this, if George Bush loses the election, Osama bin Laden wins the election, it's that simple. It will be interpreted that way by enemies of the United States around the world."

    "What do you think Hitler would have thought if Roosevelt would've lost the election in 1944? He would have thought American resolve was [weakening]."

    "What would the confederacy have thought if Lincoln would have lost the election of 186[4]?"
    --Rep. Tom Cole, R-Oklahoma, Yukon Review, 3/3/04

    Rep. Cole, who felt the outrage at his comments was based on a misunderstanding, clarified:

    "The Yukon Review mischaracterized my remarks in the opening lead of their story published yesterday. However, they did accurately quote parts of my speech during the Canadian County Republican Convention held last Saturday.

    "I do believe that if President Bush is not re-elected, the United States' enemies around the world will take comfort and strength in the fact that such a strong war time leader would be out of office."

    I don't know that there's anything I can add.

    posted by Jeff | 3:25 PM |
     

    Post-modernism has triumphed; in an irony that should make college campuses tremble, its champion is George W. Bush. The President whose mode is simplicity and whose mantra is "free market and free Iraq" (but not free Osama) may talk in black and white, but he depends on a muddy gray patriotism that knows no nuance, no contradiction. Weirdly, Bush thrives because having an opinion is, in the new millennium, as valid as knowing a fact. No WMD--no problem! A surplus that becomes a deficit, despite claims that tax cuts won't result in exactly that situation--no problem! A uniter who actually divides--no problem! Lip service to small government even as it grows ever more vast--no problem! No Osama--no problem! (Oh, wait, that is a problem, but a topic for a different discussion.)

    What's at work here that the remarkable disconnect between Dubya's words and deeds don't result in greater lost popular support, particularly among his base? It's a variant of identity politics (another academic/liberal notion) that has been wholly and absolutely absorbed (in some cases inadvertently) by the vast right-wing conspiracy. It's the identification of "conservative" with "good" or "moral."

    Post continues at The American Street...

    posted by Jeff | 10:35 AM |
     

    Orwellian Update

    A couple of weeks ago, Bush defied my satire and suggested reclassifying burger-flippers as "manufacturers." This won't create jobs, but it will give the industrial sector a hell of a bump. We also watched as reducing pollution controls was cast as the "Clean Skies" initiative, and logging proposals "Healthy Forests." Along those lines, now toxic sludge will be called "compost:"

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing that the government's definition of compost include sewage sludge. The rule change is couched in a December 10, 2003 Federal Register notice about proposed revisions to the Comprehensive Procurement Guidelines (CPG). It would consolidate all compost designations under one item called "compost made from recovered organic materials."

    I'm sure things get reclassified all the time. We would hope that government agencies make these changes based on meeting their public-service objectives. To be clear, this is not one of those changes--it's political. Again.

    The EPA's preferred method of disposal of sewage sludge in the United States is land application. To get the public to accept this has required a concerted effort from government and the sludge-industry to make the public think that sludge is "organic," "nutrient-rich," and otherwise "beneficial." Calling sludge "compost" is the agency's latest trick. The proposal here to "compost" sludge is based on the dependable presence of human feces in sludge. Human feces do indeed consist largely of organic matter. But sludge consists only partly of human feces.

    It is the purpose of wastewater treatment to extract from sewage-and to concentrate in sludge-all the pollutants in wastewater. The intended product of wastewater treatment is clean water. Sludge is the inevitable byproduct that, by definition and intention, consists of every waste material a given wastewater treatment plant is capable of removing, or is incidentally removed, from the sewage in the process of treating the wastewater. This means that, besides human urine and feces, tens of thousands of chemicals-organic and inorganic, teratogenic and carcinogenic, toxic and estrogen mimicking-will be present in the sludge.

    I guess you could call this another pile of shit from the GOP.

    posted by Jeff | 8:17 AM |


    Wednesday, March 03, 2004  

    I suppose I should say something on this historic day. John Kerry has been annointed the Democratic candidate for President, and all that remains is for him to assemble the final delegates he needs to make it official. That means that all the lame-o's like me who abandoned Dennis Kucinich, who remains the best candidate I've ever seen in a Presidential contest, have no excuse but to vote for him now. On May 18th, I'll cast my ballot for DK.

    Congratulations to all the Dems. It was a clean race and everyone managed to refrain from circular firing squads (the version that slaughtered Dean was linear). When things got tight, they tacked left, and lo--the President's numbers fell. Now it's not just the unnamed "Democratic candidate" who's beating Bush in the polls, but John Kerry. Remember what got you there, senator--fiesty refutation of the status quo, a defense of working people, civil liberties, the environment, and sensible foreign policy. Stay that course and you'll get to move into a purty white mansion come January.

    posted by Jeff | 3:54 PM |
     

    Nicholas Kristof really nails the gay marriage issue today. I'm going to quote some choice passages here, but go read it for yourself.

    Long before President Bush's call for a "constitutional amendment protecting marriage," Representative Seaborn Roddenberry of Georgia proposed an amendment that he said would uphold the sanctity of marriage.

    Mr. Roddenberry's proposed amendment, in December 1912, stated, "Intermarriage between Negroes or persons of color and Caucasians . . . is forever prohibited." He took this action, he said, because some states were permitting marriages that were "abhorrent and repugnant," and he aimed to "exterminate now this debasing, ultrademoralizing, un-American and inhuman leprosy."

    "Let this condition go on if you will," Mr. Roddenberry warned. "At some day, perhaps remote, it will be a question always whether or not the solemnizing of matrimony in the North is between two descendants of our Anglo-Saxon fathers and mothers or whether it be of a mixed blood descended from the orangutan-trodden shores of far-off Africa." (His zoology was off: orangutans come from Asia, not Africa.)

    In Mr. Bush's call for action last week, he argued that the drastic step of a constitutional amendment is necessary because "marriage cannot be severed from its cultural, religious and natural roots without weakening the good influence of society." Mr. Roddenberry also worried about the risks ahead: "This slavery of white women to black beasts will bring this nation to a conflict as fatal and as bloody as ever reddened the soil of Virginia."

    In the last half-century, there has been a stunning change in racial attitudes. All but nine states banned interracial marriages at one time, and in 1958, a poll found that 96 percent of whites disapproved of marriages between blacks and whites. Yet in 1997, 77 percent approved....

    Mr. Bush is an indicator of a similar revolution in views -- toward homosexuality -- but one that is still unfolding. In 1994, Mr. Bush supported a Texas antisodomy law that let the police arrest gays in their own homes. Now the Bushes have gay friends, and Mr. Bush appoints gays to office without worrying that he will turn into a pillar of salt.

    Apropos of the news of legalized gay marriage coming from Multnomah County this morning, I think it's worth mentioning that Kristof is an Oregonian (hailing from rural Yamhill County, however).

    posted by Jeff | 1:23 PM |
     

    "I've passed being depressed about that."
    --Jim Murphy, CBS Television Executive Producer

    The folks at Pew Research recently found that a fifth of 18-29 year olds get their news from Jon Stewart. Just two percent more get their news from Tom, Peter, or Dan. Hence Murphy's depression. Indeed, it is surely that the younger generations can't be trusted to know the difference between comedy and news. The sky is falling. We're doomed. Soon these jokers will be running the country!

    Murphy's assumption, and one I've seen a voiced often since Pew released that finding, is that the kids are catastrophically stupid and don't know better. How about this one: it's Murphy and the networks who are stupid.

    The broadcast news model hasn't changed in 50 years. For 22 minutes a day (all right, that has changed--it used to be a little longer), the anchors offer reports on national and international news, business, health, culture, and entertainment. With variations in each network's special reports (call it four minutes), all three generally run identical stories. Fifty years ago, when this was the only avenue through which Americans saw images from around the world, when the nightly news had the glamor of "immediacy" (beating the papers by 12 hours), it was a dynamite format. But now we have ready access to hundreds of stations from dozens of countries (not to mention the internet). So you tell me--who's being stupid in defending the 50-year-old formula?

    Here's what people younger than 30 think: the filter of "news" offered by Dan Rather is about as objective as an internet chat room. Where the networks mistakenly regard their broadcasts as definitive, the far more media-savvy young people see them as sales pitches. They've been weened since Sesame Street on sales pitches, so they know one when they see one. The product here is a mental environment conducive to sell Cialis and SUVs.

    Jon Stewart is therefore reliable because, like his audience, he knows he's selling, and he knows what he's selling (topical humor). He's forthright about his bias and his show self-consciously does not offer "objective news." These editorial admissions, however, make his shows more transparent. The Daily Show is trying to kid you, but it's not kidding itself.

    Unlike the saddened dinosaurs of the network news, who are blind to how compromised their "news" has become.

    posted by Jeff | 11:26 AM |
     

    Multnomah County Recognizes Gay Marriage

    "Based on a legal opinion released today by the County Attorney, a majority of the Board of County Commissioners supports a policy change to allow the county to issue marriage licenses to same sex couples."
    --Multnomah County, Oregon

    Most of Portland is located within Multnomah County, which is geographically the state's smallest, and Portland has long been a culturally liberal, fairly gay-friendly town (though in the late 80s, a rash of gay bashing spread through downtown). The county already recognized domestic partnerships. Apparently the county will begin issuing licenses later this morning, and folks are already lining up to receive them. This is a great day for civil rights, and I'm proud to see our local leaders braving the social heat to extend these basic rights. But lest anyone think otherwise, things are about to get ugly here in the Beaver State (no, I didn't make that name up just for the occasion).

    Even as the county made this surprising announcement (I live here, and I didn't even know they were considering it), anti-gay groups are gearing up to put one of four anti-gay marriage initiatives on the November ballot that will permanently remove those rights statewide. Oregon was, sadly, a leader in anti-gay legislation. In the late 80s, a group called the Oregon Christian Alliance (later Oregon "Citizens" Alliance) started a social agenda to limit gay rights and demonize gay citizens. In every election from 1988 through 2002, they tried (and in one case, succeeded) to pass law limiting the rights of gay Oregonians.

    And the moment the President announced he planned to support the constitutional ban on gay marriage, Oregon's social conservatives swung into action. A coalition of state pastors hopes to sponsor another initiative, and will support any of the current proposals being offered. Meanwhile, Oregon's senators are feuding, with Democrat Ron Wyden is a gay-rights supporter, but Republican Gordon Smith announced he would support the President's Constitutional amendment. Meanwhile, representatives to the state legislature have also said they'll try to draft law to limit gay marriages if none of the initiatives qualify for the ballot or pass.

    All of which means Oregon is about to join the battleground on gay marriage. Bush has (wrongly)targeted the state as a potential win, so we will probably see a procession of national anti-gay pols arrive to blast the County. Meanwhile, the state's fiscal crisis drags on (our unemployment rate is still over 7%), and our schools are sliding into decline. It's not always a convenient time for a civil rights battle, but kudos to Multnomah County for taking up the cause.

    posted by Jeff | 8:17 AM |


    Tuesday, March 02, 2004  


    Touchdown?

    Kerry is apparently winning in Georgia (according to exit polls) and Dean gets Vermont. And oddly, Kerry looks strong exactly where he's not supposed to: poor Southerners.

    Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts did appreciably better among poorer, less-educated respondents in Georgia, where he's running a tight race against Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, with respondents sharply divided on many issues.

    Oh, and I'm pretty sure CNN's about to call Ohio for Kucinich, too. (All right, that's neither a fair nor balanced statement. It's in fact a blatant lie--no word yet on who the Buckeyes favor.)

    posted by Jeff | 4:26 PM |
     

    Looks like the Dems may have found a spine.

    The Senate overwhelmingly rejected a proposal today to provide legal immunity to gun manufacturers and dealers after a successful Democratic-led effort to use the measure to renew a ban on assault weapons and require more background checks on buyers at gun shows....

    In the first of a series of votes on gun issues, the Senate, by a margin of 52 to 47, approved an extension of the 10-year-old ban on military-style assault weapons, handing a defeat to Republican opponents and gun rights groups that had sought to defeat the measure despite its broad support among law enforcement agencies.

    Following the vote on the assault weapons ban, the Senate voted 53 to 46 to close what is known as the "gun-show loophole" and require people who buys firearms from private dealers at such shows to undergo background checks. The vote on that amendment was also a setback for the authors of the underlying measure, who had hoped to keep such amendments off the bill.

    Good work, folks.

    posted by Jeff | 4:13 PM |
     

    I was doing a little non-blog research, and I came across some interesting comments by the Governor Bush from the 2000 debates. The most surprising was this one, which shows that the neocons were really spoiling for a war with Iraq. Whether the conspiracy folk feel this is proof that Bush ignored 9/11 warnings--well, I'll leave that to the conspiracy folk.

    And that's going to be particularly important in dealing not only with situations such as now occurring in Israel, but with Saddam Hussein. The coalition against Saddam has fallen apart or it's unraveling, let's put it that way. The sanctions are being violated. We don't know whether he's developing weapons of mass destruction. He better not be or there's going to be a consequence should I be the president. But it's important to have credibility and credibility is formed by being strong with your friends and resoluting your determination. One of the reasons why I think it's important for this nation to develop an anti-ballistic missile system that we can share with our allies in the Middle East if need be to keep the peace is to be able to say to the Saddam Husseins of the world or the Iranians, don't dare threaten our friends. It's also important to keep strong ties in the Middle East, credible ties, because of the energy crisis we're now in. After all, a lot of the energy is produced from the Middle East, and so I appreciate what the administration is doing.

    There were a number of things that have a strange relevance now--even more so than 6 months ago.

    You mentioned Haiti. I wouldn't have sent troops to Haiti. I didn't think it was a mission worthwhile. It was a nation building mission, and it was not very successful. It cost us billions, a couple billions of dollars, and I'm not so sure democracy is any better off in Haiti than it was before.

    Gay Marriage
    I'm not sure what kind of view [Vice President Gore] is describing to me. I can just tell you, I'm a person who respects other people. I respect their -- I respect -- on the one hand he says he agrees with me and then he says he doesn't. I'm not sure where he's coming from. But I will be a tolerant person. I've been a tolerant person all my life. I just happen to believe strongly that marriage is between a man and a woman.

    MODERATOR: Do you believe in general terms that gays and lesbians should have the same rights as other Americans?

    BUSH: Yes. I don't think they ought to have special rights, but I think they ought to have the same rights.

    [Some back and forth with Jim Lehrer.]

    Well, I have no idea. I mean, he can throw out all kinds -- I don't know the particulars of this law. I will tell you I'm the kind of person, I don't hire or fire somebody based upon their sexual orientation. As a matter of fact, I would like to take the issue a little further. I don't really think it's any of my -- you know, any of my concerns what -- how you conduct your sex life. And I think that's a private matter. And I think that's the way it ought to be. But I'm going to be respectful for people, I'll tolerate people, and I support equal rights but not special rights for people.

    Then there are the contradictory, which are always the most amusing. Relish these moments...

    Nation Building
    I think what we need to do is convince people who live in the lands they live in to build the nations. Maybe I'm missing something here. I mean, we're going to have kind of a nation building core from America? Absolutely not. Our military is meant to fight and win war. That's what it's meant to do. And when it gets overextended, morale drops. I strongly believe we need to have a military presence in the peninsula, not only to keep the peace in the peninsula, but to keep regional stability. And I strongly believe we need to keep a presence in NATO, but I'm going to be judicious as to how to use the military. It needs to be in our vital interest, the mission needs to be clear, and the extra strategy obvious.

    Tax Cuts
    The top -- let's talk about my tax plan. The top 1% will pay one-third of all the federal income taxes. And in return, get one-fifth of the benefits, because most of the tax reductions go to the people at the bottom end of the economic ladder. That stands in stark contrast, by the way, to a man who is going to leave 50 million -- 50 million Americans out of tax relief. We just have a different point of view. It's a totally different point of view. He believes only the right people ought to get tax relief. I believe everybody who pays taxes ought to get tax relief.

    Global Warming
    Yeah, I agree. I just -- I think there has been -- some of the scientists, I believe, Mr. Vice President, haven't they been changing their opinion a little bit on global warming? But science, there's a lot -- there's differing opinions. And before we react, I think it's best to have the full accounting, full understanding of what's taking place. And I think to answer your question, I think both of us care a lot about the environment. We may have different approaches.

    "Exaggerations"
    I think credibility is important. It is going to be important for the president to be credible with Congress, important for the president to be credible with foreign nations. And yes, I think it's something that people need to consider. This isn't something new. I read a report, or a memo, from somebody in his 1988 campaign -- I forgot the fellow's name -- warning then Senator Gore to be careful about exaggerating claims. I thought during his debate with Senator Bradley saying he authored the EITC when it didn't happen.... I found it to be an issue in trying to defend my tax relief package. I thought there was some exaggerations about the numbers. But the people are going to have to make up their mind on this issue. And I am going to continue to defend my record and defend my propositions against what I think are exaggerations.

    (All the quotes are from October 11, 2000, in a debate with Al Gore in Winston-Salem, NC.)

    posted by Jeff | 12:07 PM |
     

    Politics are corrupted by money. This is not a particularly debatable point. When Congress passed McCain-Feingold, everyone knew that politics would remain corrupted, but just a little less so. The bug in that particular ointment turned out to be that M-F addressed the little wrongs in campaign finance law--which Dems had mostly exploited--while ignoring the big wrongs (see Halliburton, Cheney, Iraq, secret energy meetings et. al.). Under the new campaign laws, the already advantaged GOP found their habits modified not much, while the hapless Dems saw their soft-money loopholes vanish.

    But as the GOP predicted, money continued to flow and it found fissures in the law. For the Dems, these were the 527 groups (named for IRS tax code that regulates them), the most recognizeable of which is MoveOn. Of course, this means that the GOP, now selectively offended by this corruption, hopes the FEC shuts off the spigot.

    The Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) Office of General Counsel yesterday proposed a tough set of rules to regulate independent groups that plan to spend tens of millions of dollars in soft money in this election year.

    Yesterday’s proposal kicks off a two-month rulemaking process that Republicans and members of the campaign finance reform community hope will culminate in rules that significantly restrict the activities of these mainly liberal-leaning groups.

    When rich people band together to fund political activity, it's legal. When poor people do it, it's corruption. Anyway, that appears to be the GOP line. (A radical notion is that it's all corruption. But thanks to the Supreme Court, which ruled money is speech, fixing the Nile River of cash flowing into GOP coffers is well nigh impossible. Best to stop the trickle flowing toward Dems, I guess.) Are there downsides to FEC regulation? You betcha.

    "Some of the language is broad enough to sweep within it many nonprofits that are not involved in genuine electoral advocacy," said Elliot Mincberg, legal director of People for the American Way, a 501(c)4 that advocates on judicial nominees. "I believe nonprofits have to pay very careful attention to this to make sure the FEC is not able in the name of election reform to severely limit nonprofit advocacy."

    The GOP will no doubt shed a few crocodile tears for the nonprofits and then push for the stricter controls. I wonder, will they remain as vigilent toward other potentially corrupting streams of money flowing into politics? Oh come on, what are you--a cynic?

    posted by Jeff | 8:40 AM |


    Monday, March 01, 2004  

    We're having a discussion about political action over on the Oregon Blog, and I posted this, which is relevant to a national audience. A few of the examples have been changed for relevance.

    Far Right America

    By historic standards, is the US currently more conservative, more liberal, or just about average? Most people assume that the present represents a baseline--just about average. Well, I'm here to tell you folks, it's not average by any standard. I'm not going to argue that American opinions with regard to governance are the furthest right they've ever been. Let's just ballpark it and say one of the most. By any standard or any definition, conservatives dominate politics.

    (Definition: conservatism values the individual and favors individual responsibility. It opposes state supportive services that are the hallmark of liberalism. Conservatives believe private enterprise serves the civic good more than public institutions. Conservatism prefers competition to collaboration. In matters of trade, it favors more freedom and less regulation. It favors the entreprenuer rather than the worker. It traditionally favors a defensive military and an isolationist foreign policy. Conservatives favor more punitive approaches to social control, and stricter controls on individual moral behavior.)

    Except for foreign policy, where neocons have turned it on its head, conservatism is absolutely the rule in America now. Nowhere are the values of a liberal society even paid lip service. Since the "Contract with America" in 1994, conservatives have had control of most of the government, and governance reflects this power. Today the majority of statehouses are controlled by conservatives; in the federal government, the legislative and exective branches are conservative, and over 2/3rds the federal judiciary has been appointed by conservatives since Ronald Reagan.

    None of this should be seen as controversial. it's just pure fact.

    If one were to have a political spectrum where 1 was on the far left, 50 was perfectly fair and balanced, and 100 was on the far right, America would today be in the eighties. That means that every Republican running for office is either at the moderation point (say 80) or further right. Democrats, by contrast, range from, say the mid-60s to the mid-80s. There are a few statistical outliers like Dennis Kucinich who are in the 40s--just a little right of FDR.

    Leaving aside the whole identity politics thing (which I won't actually leave aside, but return to in a later post), it's almost impossible for a progressive organization to move back toward moderation without supporting explicitly Democratic candidates. If someone like Mark Hatfield, the Republican Senator from Oregon, who is about a 50 on the spectrum, came along today, he would be regarded as a fruity liberal nutjob even in the Democratic Party. Such a figure couldn't possibly exist in today's Republican Party.

    So let's be honest about this. Before we begin blaming nominally nonpartisan political action committees for partisanism, it's fair to ask how a group committed to civic action could do anything but support Democrats in the current political environment. One could easily envision a scenario in which the country swings so far to the left (in the 60s, radical American Maoists wanted to firebomb institutions that weren't red enough), that civic dialogue would be impossible with only leftists.

    It benefits those in power now to not discuss where America is and who holds all the cards. Fair enough--their business is to keep power, not play nice. But for those of use interested in public policy, an honest assessment of where we are is fundamental to decide where we're going.

    posted by Jeff | 3:31 PM |
     

    Today's blogging is going to be limited. I'll try to get something up by late afternoon. Apologies.

    posted by Jeff | 10:30 AM |
     

    According to a new book that will be released this week in England, the British government apparently felt an Iraqi invasion was illegal.

    In the weeks before the war, the British Government conveyed to Washington its concerns about the war, explaining that the preponderance of its legal opinion was that war would be unlawful without a second resolution of the Security Council.

    As you know, the Brits ultimately backed the war, dispite misgivings. Why? On urging from the White House, they dug around until they found lawyers who said it was legal.

    After the warning, Lord Goldsmith, the Attorney General, approached one of only two British lawyers who took a "hawkish" view of international law. The Government's top law officer then based his own legal opinion authorising the Iraq invasion on the new advice, the Whitehall source has said.

    Can't blame that on the intelligence, can you?

    posted by Jeff | 7:42 AM |
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